ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ronaldthump]

How everyone changes their tune so quickly. Take a look around. The world is in a pandemic. Now it seems everyone is just writing A2 off. Why is this a shock to everyone. Things will improve in due time. Still a very strong brand and product with room to grow in the future.

Will be taking the opportunity to load up some more. Fear and emotion taking its toll on peoples decision making I think.

[nztx]

Nobody likes seeing this kind of destruction of the SP for any company but it's not quite so bad if you hold a variety of stocks over which you can share the pain and have sufficient courage and patience to stay on the roller coaster.

The plunge in ATM today has been offset substantially by other gains so there has been only a 0.7% reduction in my total portfolio today - and I wont be selling into the panic following this announcement. The business is not stuffed and the SP will recover - one day. To be fair I've been holding since 2017 and my average cost is around $9. I'm currently on the right side of the SP and can afford to be a bit sanguine but I do feel for those who bought in at much higher levels.

Once again, attitude depends on whether you're a trader or an investor - and I'm definitely the latter.

Meanwhile HGH, IFT, MCY, OCA, PEB RYM, SCL, SKO, SPK, SUM, TRA, XRO & others in my portfolio have all had their share of rock 'n roll on the roller coaster but are humming along OK right now and not keeping me awake at night. (Good article in NBR about PEB today too.)

I'm not gloating - I don't enjoy SP dives - but do try to be philosophical when danger strikes, as long as it's not across the board!

Bonne chance to all.

Like you recent past has seen a fairly good unrealised cushion built up

ATM for a few months in the red here has never really bothered & with patience opportunity came today

When a notional (possibly temporary) loss is realised - then that's it - opportunity forgone to position
it better for future recovery..

[Pegasus2000]

Nobody likes seeing this kind of destruction of the SP for any company but it's not quite so bad if you hold a variety of stocks over which you can share the pain and have sufficient courage and patience to stay on the roller coaster.

The plunge in ATM today has been offset substantially by other gains so there has been only a 0.7% reduction in my total portfolio today - and I wont be selling into the panic following this announcement. The business is not stuffed and the SP will recover - one day. To be fair I've been holding since 2017 and my average cost is around $9. I'm currently on the right side of the SP and can afford to be a bit sanguine but I do feel for those who bought in at much higher levels.

Once again, attitude depends on whether you're a trader or an investor - and I'm definitely the latter.

Meanwhile HGH, IFT, MCY, OCA, PEB RYM, SCL, SKO, SPK, SUM, TRA, XRO & others in my portfolio have all had their share of rock 'n roll on the roller coaster but are humming along OK right now and not keeping me awake at night. (Good article in NBR about PEB today too.)

I'm not gloating - I don't enjoy SP dives - but do try to be philosophical when danger strikes, as long as it's not across the board!

Bonne chance to all.

Thanks pierre. Need some stomach to contain ATM now. Wondering what time to pick some bargain......

[Rawz]

No mate, just buy the dip , it will come back.

I was a believer! Trust me. Originally brought at $19. Doubled down at $15. Then again at $14. But the writing is on the wall for all to see now. I've got a 3yr old so understand once an infant anything (formula, prams, front pack etc) brand falls out of favor, and new (Chinese) brands build traction.. mums talk.. not keen to sit around watching it play out.

I'm now in the other camp and expect another downgrade before the end of the FY.

[Balance]

This one a big learning curve for me. Just sold out for a 30% loss. Biggest lesson, don't keep buying on the way down thinking you've picked a bottom. Lesson learnt!

Learnt the hard way years ago like you - double up on the way up, not on the way down.

That way, you are buying more and more of a good story rather than buying more and more of a bad story (on the way down).

[madmat]

its not all covid related its to do with chineses brands gaining traction as well thats why there instore sales are down as well. its been widely said how china brands are gaining more favour

Just wait for them to get greedy and use melamine powder again :S

[Swala]

Learnt the hard way years ago like you - double up on the way up, not on the way down.

That way, you are buying more and more of a good story rather than buying more and more of a bad story (on the way down).

That's good advice. Overall not too worried about the mistake as the best lessons are when you have skin in the game. ATM was about 8% of my portfolio which has had a great year so can't complain too much.

[Lease]

Just wait for them to get greedy and use melamine powder again :S

True, A2 is far more superior and in fact today's announcement did disclose its sales are very strong at physical stores in China. That means people there still love A2 and its recovery is just a matter of time.

[daveypnz]

True, A2 is far more superior and in fact today's announcement did disclose its sales are very strong at physical stores in China. That means people there still love A2 and its recovery is just a matter of time.

Conversely online sales are down which is pretty worrying as online shopping is huge in China (compared to the rest of the world). They say online sales are down due to daigou not spreading the word but that pretty concerning imo.

[Beagle]

Yes and why a trading halt? They would of been aware of this at least 7 days ago and could of reviewed last weekend and announced before Monday trading...

Only logical explanation I can think of is they had to run it past their public relations team and their team of QC lawyers to make sure they chose their words extremely carefully (given how close to the wind they are sailing with their insider selling potentially being an actionable matter). Poor timing to lift the trading halt too, mid afternoon on the last Friday of work for many people when vast numbers of people would be enjoying their work Christmas party and be completely oblivious to what has happened and not had the opportunity to respond.

The Karicare A2 infant daigou wholesale price is 30-50% lower than normal Karicare infant.

Things appear to have fundamentally shifted a long way from a few years ago when Fonterror were alleged to be entering into some cooperation agreement with ATM.
Fonterror, (deliberately misspelt), have very deep pockets and can spend a fortune in a sustained campaign of buying market share. Yet another headwind on top of everything else and the very high $Kiwi as well.