ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[silverblizzard888]

Straight forward situation here. A2 has experienced a halt in its current business growth due to Covid halting its sales channels, price will likely drop a bit more maybe to $8 due to a negative outlook, investors not wanting to wait this out and the time it will need to recover may take 12 months. The long term fundamentals have not changed, their products are still in large demand, the management team is still amazing, so this stock is still worth about $15 in a years time when everything returns back to normal. Be greedy when others are fearful, at least that is how I will approach this.

[ratkin]

The last three months on this particular forum have reminded me so much of when the same crew were attacking RD & Xero in 2014/15. I continued to hold through all the drivel and is now 5x the value of my house with no intention of selling. The same goes for a2, this is a once in a lifetime innovation in a commodity category. People need to stop looking through their microscope and get in a satellite to see the bigger picture unfolding. Looking forward to replying to this message in 5 years on my yacht.

I have no idea where this stock is going, however what I find fascinating are the posts on this forum. In particular the need some posters seem to have to try and manipulate others. Like you say, the same thing happened on xero. If people are not holding a stock it is strange they have a compulsion to tell everyone how terrible it is.

The posts add nothing, and are just designed to mess with the heads of the holders, I struggle to see what motivates people to make these sort of posts, on the surface it looks as if they just enjoy seeing others suffer, although they try and disguise it under the guise of trying to warn people.

[alokdhir]

I have no idea where this stock is going, however what I find fascinating are the posts on this forum. In particular the need some posters seem to have to try and manipulate others. Like you say, the same thing happened on xero. If people are not holding a stock it is strange they have a compulsion to tell everyone how terrible it is.

The posts add nothing, and are just designed to mess with the heads of the holders, I struggle to see what motivates people to make these sort of posts, on the surface it looks as if they just enjoy seeing others suffer, although they try and disguise it under the guise of trying to warn people.

Fully agree with your thoughts about real motivation of over negative posts .

I for one was trying to do brainstorming with so called ATM experts to find out a consensus floor SP of ATM in these troubled times for the company so one can quantify risk reward equations better

All companies go thru bad times precipitated by extra ordinary or ordinary events

But only good companies come back from abyss ...so once anyone has decided about the pedigree of ATM then no need worry about extra 12 months wait which has been added to his waiting time

Like I am sure ATM will bottom out in next 2-4 months period when all will become negative on it ...to find out where is my motivation to do this exercise ...my 2C is that 8-9 SP levels ...may make a spike low of below that in any panic but that would not be actionable SP

Also I am pretty certain in my mind 90/100 that ATM is a quality company and it will come back ...maybe sooner then any expecting at the moment but surely in 12 months or so

Holders need hold ...buyers can start thinking of 4 parcels buying on the way down for getting it on all lower price points ...with atleast 2-3 years investment horizon .

[HCR20]

Hang on Beagle...you've never heard of the 50/80 rule and you don't know if your friends claim is fact-based and yet you post in such an authoritive tone?

[Balance]

Some seriously amateurish investment thoughts, recommendations, ‘advice’ & ‘suggestions’ being dished out by some ‘heads in the sand’ posters in the last day.

Anyone paying attention to their posts as ATM sp drops away in the last few months and lose money will have cause to take offence.

Investing is about taking into consideration all perspectives, positive or negative. Seems like some posters here only want to read their ‘confirmation’ bias.

Beware!

[Balance]

Hang on Beagle...you've never heard of the 50/80 rule and you don't know if your friends claim is fact-based and yet you post in such an authoritive tone?

Beagle has already replied :

‘I had never heard of it until my friend emailed me the above and asked me to share it so its up to people to DYOR on that. That's essentially how the directors are explaining it. Whether there are systemic issues about loss of brand power, geopolitical questions about the CCP encouraging buy China made, slowdown or growth from aggressive pricing practices by Fontera with their Karicare A2 product and other competition slowing growth is the key question investors have to decide for themselves.‘

I have never heard or read of the 50/80 rule either but am happy to ‘DYOR’ and assess accordingly.

A simple google search comes up with a number of articles, this being the principle one :

http://www.minervini.com/blog/index....ike_a_champion

[winner69]

I gather the 50/80 rule has been around for some time. Isn’t what we are seeing the effect of a temporary one in one hundred year event, I.e Covid?

You probably right there Greg

Stocks like OCA dropped by 60% and HGH dropped by 50% and SUM by 50% from their highs because of Covid - they did the 80% probability thing but not the 50% probability thing .....but recovered nicely eh as A2 will / might in due course.

As you suggest A2's fall from grace maybe is just a covid thing (although late to the party) and little to do with a cool sounding rule dreamt up by a guy on social media

Ask yourself why this moosie reports in from Siberia via Beagle - Siberia being code for being not wanted on this forum.

[percy]

Some great companies have suffered some big set backs.
Mainfreight listed at $2 .Were going to take on the world.First stop Australia went terribly wrong.So they fixed it.
MFT share price 6/2/2000 $1.66 ..25/2/2001 $1.18....19/1/2003 $1.12...Latest $62.66
Ebos.Just a pretty ordinary medical supply distributor.Lost Clark agency for joints at one stage,which was a very profitable part of their business.Expansion into Australia went badly,so they fixed it.
EBO share price 30/1/2000 $3.39....27/5/2001 $2.05....1/5/2005 $3.41...Latest $25.75
XRO.Xero.Going to set the world on fire.Something goes wrong they fix it.
XRO share price 18/11/2011 $4.62...9/3/2014 .$41.93...7/12/2014 $15.18. Latest $150.59.
So the question A2 shareholders have ask themselves is whether A2 is a great company or an ordinary company?


ps.I brought my first holding of PAZ in April 2011 at 3.5 cents.Luckily for me few others posted on that thread.If they had they would have rated PAZ as a sell.Everything that could go wrong for them did go wrong,so they would have been right..lol..Latest share price 55 cents.

[Waltzing]

MR P "They fixed it"

a well respected brand. Strong balance sheet. Experienced at selling product. The product has been validated according to by Bio Chem sources is suitable for consumption. They may have to cut price but they should still be profitable? Takes a lot of work to follow a company this size.

[winner69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upqAK7sdGRg

According to his calculation by 2030:

Bearish case $7.06
Base case $12.47
Bullish case $19.40

Those prices are his valuations for today - the 2030 bit is how out projected cash flows our for and then discounted back into what they are worth today

He seems to use a 10% discount rate so his base case is essentially saying if you bought today at $12.47 and his assumptions turned out right you'd get 10% pa return

Pretty impressive presentation - have you thought about what A2's sales growth might be over the next 5 and 10 years?