ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Gregnz]

Like many have pointed out that after seeing what happened to shorters in US ...many may have started booking their profits in ATM ...which can be one of the reason why its become pretty buoyant in the last week or so ...U can easily feel its SP got a bullish sentiment and feel to it these days ...unlike before .

It will be very interesting to keep watch on delayed Shortman data ...I am curious if only short covering is the reason of this bullish feel or something else more substantial is cooking ...I understand Feb HY announcement is due in last week ...apart from tinkering with FY guidance nothing much is expected in actual reporting ...surely 670 cant become 700 !!

Also if shorts are covering slowly and if we see last friday figures to be only 5% short then what happens ....still a big if ...but very curious to find out whats going on for some real buying interest in ATM these days

Personally, I dont think the bullish sentiment is due to short covering. It appears to be more timed to the announcement of the signing of the upgraded trade deal (which personally surprises me as the trade deal was done and dusted last November). When short covering does start, that could lead to one almighty short squeeze. Id personally be quite worried if I held a short position in a company, with 60 million other short positions open. Any ounce of good news pushing the share price higher will see any profits on a short position quickly disappear, or potentially mean if they cant close their position in time (buy back shares) they may well end up paying more for them than when they took out the short position (as has happened nearly every other year). Previous years, its been common for A2 to increase several dollars after a trading halt is lifted during the pre open auction, so if guidance comes in within whats been proposed, it may already be too late for Shorters to close out positions. Obviously the same is true of A2 if guidance is missed, the share price has the potential to drop several dollars during the pre market open post a trading halt. From what I have seen and heard, I am leaning towards guidance being achieved, upper end.

[Gregnz]

Attachment 12264
26.3 days to cover based on average trading volume.

[Gregnz]

Interesting to see the A2 short squeeze movement gaining traction on HotCopper and Reddit. Perhaps we just need Elon to try it and add it to his Twitter feed how much he loves A2 milk.
I see someone has already messaged him. What a world we live in today..

[daveypnz]

Have been drinking a lot of milk lately as I'm back in the gym for the first time in years, generally tolerate milk well but do get a bit bloated. Tried a2 for a laugh and have to say I don't feel anywhere near as bloated after drinking it. It also seems to have less of a scent than regular milk, almost no smell when you have a whiff of the bottle - that's possibly just the anchor bottle though as I vaguely remember reading someone saying their anchor milk tasted different when they switched to non transparent bottles.

Anyway will keep drinking and see how I feel, I may become a believer.

[longy]

Attachment 12264
26.3 days to cover based on average trading volume.

Gregnz. Where did you obtained these info from please? Many thanks.

[dreamcatcher]

Interesting to see the A2 short squeeze movement gaining traction on HotCopper and Reddit. Perhaps we just need Elon to try it and add it to his Twitter feed how much he loves A2 milk.
I see someone has already messaged him. What a world we live in today..

Appears the HC brigade are now well and truly aware of Reddit effects to target heavily shorted stocks. Listening to a share commentator today who mentions some Hedge Funds with zero balances would not be a problem. Also outlining that most would short targeted stocks before lowering their TP finding every excuse to justify new valuations. Retail investors should care zero about shorters loses and put them on notice that their actions also had huge losses on others ...........sound famiiar for a2

GameStop shares shorted has declined by 8% in the last 7 days to 57.83 million, as some short sellers have covered their bets that the stock would fall. Looking at Shortman's chart for 22nd January A2m short sellers position stood at 7.88% or 58.5 million greater then GameStop.

[LEMON]

What do you think would be next for A2M?
Or hard to say?

[Gregnz]

I wasn’t too sure how to take today’s announcement from government about climate targets and reducing cow herd numbers. They seem to think that they can produce as much diary with 15% less cows by 2030.
Personally I’d prefer they start by fixing child poverty, housing, and crime , then tackle the bigger issues such as climate change. After all they are already in their 4th year and don’t appear to have achieved much when it comes to the fundamental issues in society.

I did speak to a friend of mine this evening who knows a number of dairy farmers. He seems to think that the announcement today could lead to a increase in farmers converting herds to A2A2 protein, as apparently they receive slightly more $$ per kg of milk solids, and if their herd numbers are reduced, they need to achieve higher $$ with less cows. I don’t know enough about it to know how this works.
I imagine if farmers have limits placed on herd sizes, if they can achieve a higher margin selling their milk to be used in nutritional products then this makes sense, or perhaps it will just lead to a increase in dairy costs across the board, passed onto the consumer. Apparently NZ is already able to produce dairy at a much cheaper cost vs other countries, so perhaps a increase in this cost is inevitable.

[dreamcatcher]

Gregnz@ - Imagine increased dairy prices would be the result or discovery of new feed to stop cows belching or flatulencing: I found these interesting facts "which is a bigger methane source: cow belching or cow flatulence? Contrary to common belief, it's cow belching due to enteric fermentation. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day."

LEMON@ - Not sure where this Reddit army movement will take a2 shares but this borrowing of shares what absolute rubbish.

[Gregnz]

Gregnz@ - Imagine increased dairy prices would be the result or discovery of new feed to stop cows belching or flatulencing: I found these interesting facts "which is a bigger methane source: cow belching or cow flatulence? Contrary to common belief, it's cow belching due to enteric fermentation. A cow burps and farts between 160 to 320 litres of methane per day."

LEMON@ - Not sure where this Reddit army movement will take a2 shares but this borrowing of shares what absolute rubbish.

Yes, but isnt the fact that our cows are grass fed one of the reasons the world likes our dairy? I wonder if there is a way to engineer a grass variety which creates less methane after consumption.

I can just imagine it, as a result of a methane reduction target, we start planting and harvesting grain and convert our herds to grain fed (if it produces less methane). One step forward, two steps backwards.

I'm not against doing what we can do as a small nation to combat climate change, I'm all for it. I just wonder though what impact our small nation has in the grand scheme, when countries like China and the USA contribute such a large % towards emissions.
We already have a low wage economy, with rising cost of living, and housing out of reach for many, but because we want to make a small contribution to world climate emissions, our population will pay more for food, petrol, gas, and somehow afford to buy an electric car (because we don't have sufficient public transport to rely upon, and we wont be allowed to buy a petrol car). Dont even get me started on the battery side of things, as everything I read suggests that mining lithium for a battery, and end of life recycling and disposal is just as bad for the environment as petrol.
I hear in the USA you already receive a significant rebate for installing solar on your roof, and a rebate when you buy an electric car. I'm yet to see anything here along similar lines. I would have thought thats where we would have started?