ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Gregnz]

if a2 stays around current pricing for years and doesnt pay a dividend and another person earns a dividend say on another stock which does nothing.

who is ahead ? time is money thats why i guess you have a diversified portfolio to cover your a2 risk of earning no income

Yes you’ve answered your question, diversified.

My initial analysis and subsequent more recent analysis still confirms my initial reason for investing. I don’t think I will be waiting years to be in the green on A2 and potentially even sooner for a dividend to commence. If it takes longer than I planned, oh well, I’ll wait.

[James108]

Responding to bull: Well that makes sense given your posts, but follow up question is if the market is never wrong why do you buy individual shares? Surely that would be wasting your time.

[James108]

Responding to king: I’m not and it actually makes up less of my portfolio than the weighting on the nzx50, and as I measure my performance against the nzx50, I actually do better when ATM goes down.. go figure.

What there is no reason to do is provide opinions without reasoning.

[Gregnz]

There was an interesting point a few pages back with regards to mataura valley milk, and the govt expectations of phasing out coal as an energy source in the coming years.
When drying milk concentrate energy costs (electricity and coal /gas etc) are normally the largest costs after the purchase of the raw product, and staff costs. Depending on how much 'fat' is in your business..

A coal to biomass fuel conversion, not only has a one off cost associated with changes required for the burner arrangement and dust management, but currently is significantly more expensive to operate.. A coal boiler might cost ~4m /year you would be up to 11-12m /year for no actual reduction in CO exiting the boiler stack...

This is probably more of an issue for fonterra with a reliance on coal fired boilers dotted around the countryside, but also a of consideration is do we actually have capacity to make enough wood pellets / chips in consistent supply in the right parts of the country (200t /day per boiler) once demand starts to shoot up?

I've seen quite a bit of discussion around why A2 invested in Mataura. Being in southland, its best positioned to capitalise on any surplus electricity from Manapouri (if and when Tiwai closes). Transpower have already stated that it isn't efficient to simply send that power north (heat in conductors creates energy loss). They are already investing hundreds of millions to expand line capacity, but I imagine they will look to other southland businesses to absorb surplus.

This article about Mataura says that while it was more cost effective to use coal initially, the plant had the capability to transfer to a more environmentally friendly alternative when commercially viable: https://www.theensign.co.nz/communit...f-water-a-day/

I'd think given the governments emissions targets, converting coal boilers to other energy sources is pretty low hanging fruit, and I imagine its definitely on their radar (or should be).

Also: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/why-elect...n-dairy-plants

[Gregnz]

& apologies in advance for my lengthy posts. (I'm on annual leave for the week) Sorry.

[Balance]

& apologies in advance for my lengthy posts. (I'm on annual leave for the week) Sorry.

No need for apologies.

Information is key to making good investment decisions and posters can discern good from bad, useful from useless information.

[TLM54]

Everyone has their own convictions and strategy. we dont need to justify our strategy to anyone but ourselves.

The current chart structure is still bearish. the price action yesterday confirmed the triangle or wedge trading pattern, which indicates a probability of a bearish continuation. if the supporting trend line breaks, we could see a price target as low as $9.10 in the next trading range.

[porkandpuha]

Everyone has their own convictions and strategy. we dont need to justify our strategy to anyone but ourselves.

The current chart structure is still bearish. the price action yesterday confirmed the triangle or wedge trading pattern, which indicates a probability of a bearish continuation. if the supporting trend line breaks, we could see a price target as low as $9.10 in the next trading range.

Does TA account for much right now? Fairly certain most investors and traders are waiting for a bit of guidance from the report later this month which will provide the strongest indicator of the future.

[Gregnz]

Does TA account for much right now? Fairly certain most investors and traders are waiting for a bit of guidance from the report later this month which will provide the strongest indicator of the future.

The price action is definitely interesting. I’m not a chartist, wouldn’t have a clue how to interpret one, but was very telling on the ASX when it was within touching distance of $11 AUD, only to be knocked back on decent volume (while at the same time short positions appear to be closing).

I do find it interesting that a share price will fall 50+ cents with no new updates/guidance from the company. Suggests to me that those with short positions are doing their best to subdue the share price.

[Balance]

The price action is definitely interesting. I’m not a chartist, wouldn’t have a clue how to interpret one, but was very telling on the ASX when it was within touching distance of $11 AUD, only to be knocked back on decent volume (while at the same time short positions appear to be closing).

I do find it interesting that a share price will fall 50+ cents with no new updates/guidance from the company. Suggests to me that those with short positions are doing their best to subdue the share price.

Actually, they have been buying back shares.