ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[alokdhir]

Usually towards end of August for FY.

I was talking about a trading update information announcement ....as thats what he was looking for

" Think a2 would have notified market (by now) if forecast not met. "

[winner69]

New CEO is going to want to start his tenure with a clean slate.

Nothing worse than what happened to Ross Taylor at FBU - took over and did not account for all the skeletons in the cupboards.

The new man made sure Pacific Brands got rid of skeletons etc and went through a few more previous downgrades ....and then hey presto it surprised the market with a big profit upgrade and he was a hero .....and then Pacific Brands got taken over

[TLM54]

He’s talking HY, which we know will be met. Unless the sh*t hits the fan with Covid between now and full year, given the updates from other companies about corporate Daigou recovering and strong sales in China, I’d lean towards FY guidance being met also. I don’t feel their FY guidance was overly optimistic, so things would have really go downhill to miss that target.

I don't think i've seen any news about ANZ daigous improving. I would expect daigous to deteriorate further in 2H21 due to students graduating in late 2020 and leaving and temporary visitor's visas expiring and going home. since there's no inflow of new students and visitors replacing those who left towards the end of 2020, it's hard to see daigou sales improving over 1H21 unless AUS gets a decent inflow of people from China.

[Gregnz]

I don't think i've seen any news about ANZ daigous improving. I would expect daigous to deteriorate further in 2H21 due to students graduating in late 2020 and leaving and temporary visitor's visas expiring and going home. since there's no inflow of new students and visitors replacing those who left towards the end of 2020, it's hard to see daigou sales improving over 1H21 unless AUS gets a decent inflow of people from China.

Id suggest reading Bubs recent quarterly update, Corporate Daigou up 122%.

Id also add, 150,000 Daigou live in Australia, they aren’t temporary students or visitors.

Attachment 12281

[Mrbuyit]

Correct me if I'm wrong but bubs would be on a tiny scale when compared to ATM, so a 100% increase is probably pocket change?

Disc: hold ATM as my second largest holding behind OCA having accumulated enough recently for the time being.

[Gregnz]

Correct me if I'm wrong but bubs would be on a tiny scale when compared to ATM, so a 100% increase is probably pocket change?

Disc: hold ATM as my second largest holding behind OCA having accumulated enough recently for the time being.

Yes they are tiny. But the corporate Daigou dynamics would be similar. It could be argued that Corporate Daigou for A2 is better equipped to capitalise on any recovery in that channel.

[Leftfield]

The new man made sure Pacific Brands got rid of skeletons etc and went through a few more previous downgrades ....and then hey presto it surprised the market with a big profit upgrade and he was a hero .....and then Pacific Brands got taken over

So we should hold pending $30 ps plus takeover offer. Bring it on.

[Balance]

Id suggest reading Bubs recent quarterly update, Corporate Daigou up 122%.

Id also add, 150,000 Daigou live in Australia, they aren’t temporary students or visitors.

I personally would not read too much into the 122% increase - this is 2Q vs 1Q.

1Q was July - Sept which was the worst of the Victorian 111 days lockdown when daigou sales would have virtually fallen off the cliff.

So 2Q increase on 1Q of 122% does not equate much imo. More relevant if BUB advised Q2 F2021 vs Q2 F2020 sales decrease/increase.

Also, ATM's second profit downgrade was announced well into December (18 Dec) - which indicates that ATM has not seen the same sort of recovery as BUB in 2Q.

Probably why ATM's sp was sold off after the initial sp rise from the BUB's announcement after analysts have had a good look at BUB's results.

[dreamcatcher]

Think the skeletons are already out but my opinion a2 to exceed 670m but a hold either way for me.

All free-held so certainly an easy decision but increased my holdings in bubs with positive corporate daigou UBS a2 TP NZ$17 - Analysis points to range $10.00-$23.50 with downside including no China recovery

[porkandpuha]

2 million shares covered by shorters from Jan 27th to Jan 28th. Right in the heart of the Gamestop squeeze.