ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[NT001]

Interesting to re-read what Brian Gaynor wrote in a sharemarket review in the Herald of 5 July. Here are the comments he made relevant to A2MC, whose shares had just fallen by 10c to 70c in the preceding five weeks.

The NZX MidCap Index appreciated 17.9 per cent in the latest June 2014 year...

The top performing mid cap companies have been Diligent with plus 2467 per cent, A2 Milk 1050 per cent and Pacific Edge 625 per cent...

Company earnings are the sharemarket's most important driver even though a small number of companies may be an exception to this rule. Xero and the other loss-making technology companies - both here and overseas - are obvious examples of these exceptions.

[MAC]

Yep, the long term value in ATM is in the value proposition and the gross margins.

Do you find the ATM reports difficult to dissect though, would be more content if they also reported ‘underlying profit' ie before intercompany charges.

But, having just gone from operating in a single market to four in just two years, the potential flood of all that concurrent return in earnings downstream is what values ATM.

ATMebit.jpg

[see weed]

Buyers building up. Just got some at 56c. Is this the turning point?

[winner69]

Some tend to try and build risk into a DCF base case like Forsyth Barr very often do, but that just leaves a prospective investor in a position where they must then analyse very carefully for themselves exactly where the analyst has been fair or unfairly conservative. It means their valuations can be very often a bit low too.

Some prefer to apply company set goals and targets and forecast beyond there based on available market analysis and product cycle growth curve estimates for each market and product. At the end of the day the company is the closest to the business, they may not be correct and there are always unknowns, they may perhaps though have the best window seat.

But, at the end of the day if anyone is trying to use DCF to model short term (under six month) moves in share price, forget it, there are much better type of model for that, DCF won’t help you with that much.

Attachment 6373

What's that diagram meant to tell me

[Harrie]

It seems that Fonterra is struggling in the Aust market despite discounting reasonably heavily (SST article) , yet A2 corp is going from strength to strength seemingly.
I have a view but interested in others views.

[Hoop]

Buyers building up. Just got some at 56c. Is this the turning point?

No point in answering your question..see weed ..as you have already bought into a down trending stock during a market relief rally....

[hilskin]

Looks like 1 ltr of a2 fresh milk is being sold on the jingdong website for $12 nz dollars. You will also see A2 baby formula listed along with some interesting books for the chinese to learn more about A2 milk. A translation of the below page also shows they are doing a Buy 1 get 1 free promotion for the fresh milk. Shame we can't see the amount being sold.

http://search.jd.com/Search?keyword=a2%20milk&enc=utf-8

[winner69]

No point in answering your question..see weed ..as you have already bought into a down trending stock during a market relief rally....

Hoop - but I have that feeling that it HAS turned and we are on to something BIG here. Just some little signs that were there on Friday afternoon and the spurt today has the gutometer getting excited.

[hilskin]

In case we all forgot, this is what the baby formula factory looks like. Taken from 3 News some time back.
Attachment 6375

[NT001]

Looks like 1 ltr of a2 fresh milk is being sold on the jingdong website for $12 nz dollars. You will also see A2 baby formula listed along with some interesting books for the chinese to learn more about A2 milk.

I picked up a copy of the "Don't Drink A1 Milk!" book (but not from this site). It's by an American, Brent Bateman, a human health campaigner who now lives in Thailand. It's not very well written, could have done with a decent editor, is self published and draws heavily (with acknowledgements) on Keith Woodford's book. If you've got the Woodford book (advertised below it), you definitely don't need this one. But it's interesting that someone out there who is not connected with A2MC is pushing their barrow for them.