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  1. #20261
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    When all the Bs start posting here ...to me it means results are bad ...sure indication ...just waiting for the third also to say something here ...maybe soon ..lol

  2. #20262
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Revenue 2H20 TO 1H21

    Diagou -$183.5M (-46.7%)
    CBEC -$77.2M (-42%)
    China label +22.1M (+11.6%)

    China store footprint increase to 22k stores from 19.1k (+15%)

    You would think big drop in Diagou + CBEC would = large growth (say 40%+) in China label. Heck you would at least think it would grow in line with the 15% increase in store footprint. Perhaps Chinese mothers think if its not an English label then why pay the premium price.

  3. #20263
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Balance - no sign of the big clean out by the new CEO

    That stock adjustment doesn't count as part of any cleanout
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #20264
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    When all the Bs start posting here ...to me it means results are bad ...sure indication ...just waiting for the third also to say something here ...maybe soon ..lol
    Right on - methinks this thread going to turn to custard today
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #20265
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Right on - methinks this thread going to turn to custard today

    Actually its not that bad ..its not a full downgrade ...just little more damped expectations ...so I dont feel it will be big down immediately ...maybe slow grind down as market will need to write off this year and many will like to exit and deploy funds somewhere else in the meanwhile as it will be dead investment here for 6-12 months

  6. #20266
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    Updated timeline for you, bull ....

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    management should be given a hand. they saw it all coming and sold heaps of shares before it all went down hill
    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    You can work the numbers out for yourselves : THIRD DOWNGRADE


    Outlook FY21

    Globally there continues to be unprecedented levels of uncertainty and volatility due to COVID-19.

    The Company remains confident in the underlying fundamentals of the business and will continue to invest behind the brand and in its capability to drive long term growth.

    However, the pace of recovery in the daigou/reseller channel and in the CBEC channel has been slower than previously anticipated and the Company now expects revenue to be at the lower end of the previous guidance range.
    A lower EBITDA margin range is now expected due to lower revenue, higher brand investment, longer daigou/reseller support, movements in foreign currency and adverse channel mix relative to what was anticipated in December.

    Accordingly, the Company’s FY21 outlook is now as follows:

    • Group revenue for FY21 in the order of $1.4 billion

    • Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of 24% to 26% (excluding MVM acquisition costs)

    The outlook for FY21 assumes the actions being taken to re-activate the daigou/reseller channel deliver a significant improvement in quarter-on-quarter growth from 3Q21 to 4Q21.

    Second Downgrade : 18 Dec 2020

    Our FY21 guidance as follows:

    • Group revenue for FY21 of $1.40 billion to $1.55 billion

    • Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of between 26 per cent and 29 per cent.

    First Downgrade : 28 Sept 2020

    an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as follows:

    - Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million

    - Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion

    - Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

    27 August 2020 : Massive Sale of Shares By Directors & Management

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358806


    Results for F20 : 19 August 2020

    Total revenue of $1.73 billion, an increase of 32.8%

    • EBITDA4 of $549.7 million, an increase of 32.9%
    Last edited by Balance; 25-02-2021 at 09:22 AM.

  7. #20267
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Balance - no sign of the big clean out by the new CEO

    That stock adjustment doesn't count as part of any cleanout
    You and I who have been around know what happens next, right?

  8. #20268
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    Not great, but not groundbreakingly terrible like some here would have us believe. Outlook is more towards the lower end of initial guidance and they may miss by 1-2% but given Mr Market has typically been skeptical with A2 over the past 4-5 months, it will be interesting to see if that was already factored in to yesterdays share price.

  9. #20269
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Right on - methinks this thread going to turn to custard today
    Yep, it’s a shame. Many have left this thread permanently for these reasons. Will just let them go at it today, they can just reply to themselves all day. I think you’d be hard pressed to find many long term holders still present here.

  10. #20270
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    ive updated my forecast for a pe of 15 - 18 based on current earnings given today implies share price of $5 - $6
    one step ahead of the herd

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