ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bull....]

Gone downhill since Jayne left --- company performance

Said many times bring Geoff back a big mistake - caretaker whose past best by date when company need drive

Chairman Hearn has a lot to answer for

His resignation should be coming soon

I take it Chairman Hearn is still ensconced in the UK?

geoff's good but thats why he wanted jane because she's good at marketing and taking a2 to the next level. hearn f..cked up

[YoungBull]

I think the difficulty with this is you’re assuming your analysis is already correct based on these short term price fluctuations, fluctuations which have been driven by all sorts of emotions. No one said that they think they know better, I’m just wanting more evidence to strengthen my decision for the long long term. You have commented several times on the bad emotion involved with this stock, but I note a lot of your responses are directed to the behaviour of other investors, which in itself means you are very emotionally involved. The fact that you take other people deciding to hold instead of sell as being a statement against you personally shows that you too are not immune to emotion 😉

Exit: in response to balance

[alokdhir]

So full year ebitda going to be about $336m - down $214m on last year (about 40%)

Sales being down 20% account for about half of the $214m

But the real killer is the significamyly margin - reason behind the other half of the lower ebitda

Sales decline compounded by lower margins - ouch

Thats the most worrying part ...loosing sales but keeping your margins is understandable ...as sales can be recaptured much faster when environment improves ...but margins not easy to recapture back as it seems they diluting their brand premium for buying revenue to show something in results

They still blaming this on less sales so margins less as fixed costs high ...but its not that simple ...they giving some back to show reasonable sales may be the truer picture

[Entrep]

Do any of the Council of Bs have a price at which they would be interested?

[alokdhir]

Do any of the Council of Bs have a price at which they would be interested?

All say around $ 6 ...so safely can invest around $ 8.50 ....IMHO

[winner69]

Bit of a surprise operating cash flow was negative (compared to +$160m pcp)

[Balance]

I think the difficulty with this is you’re assuming your analysis is already correct based on these short term price fluctuations, fluctuations which have been driven by all sorts of emotions. No one said that they think they know better, I’m just wanting more evidence to strengthen my decision for the long long term. You have commented several times on the bad emotion involved with this stock, but I note a lot of your responses are directed to the behaviour of other investors, which in itself means you are very emotionally involved. The fact that you take other people deciding to hold instead of sell as being a statement against you personally shows that you too are not immune to emotion 😉

Exit: in response to balance

Downgrades come in 3s, YoungBull. Lock that away.

In ATM’s case, I predict there will be another downgrade within the next 3 months once the new CEO has had a chance to really get his feet under the desk.

[Balance]

Do any of the Council of Bs have a price at which they would be interested?

Wait for the next downgrade - new CEO will want to well and truly clean out the cupboards, hire his own people and do a strategy reset.

Going to be heaps more expenses to be incurred in the year ahead.

His catch cry will be : ‘Short term pain for long term gain.’

Sounds like Jayne?

[dreamcatcher]

There are plenty who have taken note of the warnings from the 3 Bs and got out.

I have personally received thank you messages from them.

Too bad for those who think they know better.

Good on you @Balance you are a true champion...........

[winner69]

Thats the most worrying part ...loosing sales but keeping your margins is understandable ...as sales can be recaptured much faster when environment improves ...but margins not easy to recapture back as it seems they diluting their brand premium for buying revenue to show something in results

They still blaming this on less sales so margins less as fixed costs high ...but its not that simple ...they giving some back to show reasonable sales may be the truer picture

The margin problem all at Gross Margin level - probably all selling price related

Expenses were down $31m on pcp - a big chunk of that marketing