ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Gregnz]

Out of context?

We are reading exactly the same sort of postings from the same posters in the last 2 days after yet another downgrade.

All in perspective, my friend for those who come to this site to read postings in context.

You would love to have just your view here so others can blindly follow you down the slippery slope for the last 6 months?

So your suggesting only negative views here are acceptable to you? How about a 'balanced' view Balance?

[Balance]

So your suggesting only negative views here are acceptable to you? How about a 'balanced' view Balance?

Ah - as if I have not posted positive views!

[Balance]

Chill, Gregnz.

Read the posting from yourself yesterday and you know it's all in context.

You've taken a post of mine from December? Thats why its out of context. I've actually been very quiet on the forum the past two days if you havent noticed, while you've been banging away incessantly on your keyboard.

Really? You do realise what the returns were if you'd invested $100,000 in ATM in 2016?
But yes a pandemic came along, and suddenly those who told you to invest in 2016, generating returns not seen elsewhere, and suddenly you treat them as the scum of the earth for not selling out at the top and believing in the long term trajectory of the company?

[Gregnz]

Chill, Gregnz.

Read the posting from yourself yesterday and you know it's all in context.

I still have no reason to not believe in the long term trajectory of the company.

Collating various posts from members across various timeframes is disgraceful and you know that. If you don't, then you clearly have a lot to learn.

[Balance]

I still have no reason to not believe in the long term trajectory of the company.

Collating various posts from members across various timeframes is disgraceful and you know that. If you don't, then you clearly have a lot to learn.

All in context - am I not allowed to highlight how some posters consistently downplay the gravity of the downgrades from one downgrade to the other?

Am I not allowed to share my observations on this site?

Everything to learn from history, my friend.

Never get emotional when it comes to stocks - it clouds judgement.

[Gregnz]

All in context - am I not allowed to highlight how some posters consistently downplay the gravity of the downgrades from one downgrade to the other.

Everything to learn from history, my friend.

Well what I can assure you, when the tide turns and ATM is back in recovery mode, perhaps back at previous highs, you can be sure that I wont stoop as low as to rub salt in the wounds of non holders by hunting the forum for historical posts, to collate and post. My morals are far higher than that.

[Balance]

Well what I can assure you, when the tide turns and ATM is back in recovery mode, perhaps back at previous highs, you can be sure that I wont stoop as low as to rub salt in wound of non holders by hunting the forum for historical posts, to collate and post. My morals are far higher than that.

Nothing to do with morals - everything to do with observations.

I have been a keen observer of what's going on with ATM & the postings here - like everyone, trying to glean insights and part of the observations is who to follow and who not to follow.

If you are suggesting I do not share my observations, then that's another matter which I beg to differ.

[Baa_Baa]

Well what I can assure you, when the tide turns and ATM is back in recovery mode, perhaps back at previous highs, you can be sure that I wont stoop as low as to rub salt in wound of non holders by hunting the forum for historical posts, to collate and post. My morals are far higher than that.

You certainly have high principles and a measured response generally, I see you doing your thing on HC and compared to here, that's a real rats nest. As for our resident commentators, rather than seeing it as a negative, consider perhaps their take on the psychology and circumstances .. and they've been right. I've seen it literally hundreds of times, but what may surprise you is that they are adept at buying into the things they been warning about .. when the situation changes. Very experienced investors & traders, I don't think they actually mean any ill towards people who choose not to take their 'advice', albeit sometimes when challenged it can get a bit personal from both sides.

Anyway, who would've picked it, one day later and my parcel from yesterday is nicely in profit. Makes me wonder if the market had priced in the third downgrade and yesterday was an over reaction. Early days, ATM has a lot of ground to make up, and goodwill to restore in investors, best just to let them get on with it.

[Beagle]

You can work the numbers out for yourselves : THIRD DOWNGRADE


Outlook FY21

Globally there continues to be unprecedented levels of uncertainty and volatility due to COVID-19.

The Company remains confident in the underlying fundamentals of the business and will continue to invest behind the brand and in its capability to drive long term growth.

However, the pace of recovery in the daigou/reseller channel and in the CBEC channel has been slower than previously anticipated and the Company now expects revenue to be at the lower end of the previous guidance range.
A lower EBITDA margin range is now expected due to lower revenue, higher brand investment, longer daigou/reseller support, movements in foreign currency and adverse channel mix relative to what was anticipated in December.

Accordingly, the Company’s FY21 outlook is now as follows:

• Group revenue for FY21 in the order of $1.4 billion

• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of 24% to 26% (excluding MVM acquisition costs)

The outlook for FY21 assumes the actions being taken to re-activate the daigou/reseller channel deliver a significant improvement in quarter-on-quarter growth from 3Q21 to 4Q21.

Second Downgrade : 18 Dec 2020

Our FY21 guidance as follows:

• Group revenue for FY21 of $1.40 billion to $1.55 billion

• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of between 26 per cent and 29 per cent.

First Downgrade : 28 Sept 2020

an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as follows:

- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million

- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion

- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

Results for F20 : 19 August 2020

Total revenue of $1.73 billion, an increase of 32.8%

• EBITDA4 of $549.7 million, an increase of 32.9%

Give yourself a pat on the back mate and put your feet up and have a rest. You've contributed many, many thousands of useful posts over nearly two decades. Don't let the newbies who often have little respect for the old hands on here get to you. I just highlighted this part of your very useful post so those with a very short attention span don't miss it.

The way I see it, the real worry is the very rapidly declining margins (26.4% first half) and by implication in their own forecast if the full year is 24-26% the second half could be as low as 21.6% Every time they update the market their brand value and IP just keeps looking weaker and weaker and weaker... Plenty more disappointment for shareholders to come in future updates, in my opinion and I expect the downtrend to continue for quite some time.

[Gregnz]

Nothing to do with morals - everything to do with observations.

I have been a keen observer of what's going on with ATM & the postings here - like everyone, trying to glean insights and part of the observations is who to follow and who not to follow.

If you are suggesting I do not share my observations, then that's another matter which I beg to differ.

Its ok to be a keen observer and you can make up your own mind who you wish to follow and who not to follow. I guess I beg to differ with how you conduct yourself on the forum, especially your recent comments. Collating historical posts to 'remind' people who you think they should follow in my view is disgraceful, but others can make their own mind up I'm sure.