ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bullfrog]

Just touching on the report that January 2021 IF sales are down 70% compared to the same month last year again for a second. Mothers aren't going to stop feeding their babies so they've obviously found other brand that they and their baby are quite happy with. Once mothers find their baby is just as happy on a much cheaper alternative brand won't they just stick with the alternative brand ?

According to google, had to look it up as it's a long time since I had one, it's recommended that babies stop drinking IF at a year old, getting enough nutrition from 3 meals plus snacks a day. So the mothers who couldn't buy ATM last year, the changing brands argument, are not going to be the ones buying IF this year.

ATM is a classic example of complacent leadership, they were in a management bubble long before COVID hit.

[freddagg]

Who stocks edible products for almost a year buddy ?? Lol

I certainly do, almost anything that doesn't need to be stored in a fridge is likely to be kept for over a year, except bread, but I would still have about 100 loaves in freezers.

[tomm]

Have a look at turnaround stocks over the years like FBU, DIL, SKO, HGH, PEB, XRO and yes, ATM a few years ago.

Plenty of opportunities as a turnaround happens to get into a stock - plenty.

As mentioned earlier. If you don't have faith in a stock : SELL NOW . And do not NAG. Or believe and love this stock and just looking for a cheap entry!
People whom have faith in the stock and believe this is it : BUY NOW / HOLD.

[Balance]

As mentioned earlier. If you don't have faith in a stock : SELL NOW . And do not NAG. Or believe and love this stock and just looking for a cheap entry!
People whom have faith in the stock and believe this is it : BUY NOW / HOLD.

Who’s nagging? Nobody is asking you to read any postings!

Look in the mirror though and you will see a holder who should have listened to all the warnings.

One thing is for sure - your track record of posting ‘positive’ assertions resulting in losses means nobody should be taking any of your 'naggings'!

[tomm]

Who’s nagging? Nobody is asking you to read any postings!

Look in the mirror and you will see a holder who should have listened to all the warnings.

One thing is for sure - your track record of posting ‘positive’ assertions resulting in losses means nobody should be taking any of your assertions!

Just very simple question : are you holding this stock or are you looking for an entry ? If neither , why are you bothering post here ? Whatever happens are already happened! The Sp is already taken into account, the Sp is accounted for is from now , its a choice of people whom have faith in the product and the company as this company produced a straight record up until the covid -19 worldwide issue.
Repeating yourself about this issue which effected worldwide is helpless.
As I said earlier before , if you save time to post (whatever it is which people is already knew) and put an oder in, you won't have to repeating people's issue.
This happen to any stocks , not just ATM. If you dislike : SELL NOW. If you like this stock : BUY NOW.

[Balance]

Sounds very much like 'see no evil, talk no evil and hear no evil' approach to investing by you!

Just very simple question : are you holding this stock or are you looking for an entry ? If neither , why are you bothering post here ? Whatever happens are already happened! The Sp is already taken into account, the Sp is accounted for is from now , its a choice of people whom have faith in the product and the company as this company produced a straight record up until the covid -19 worldwide issue.
Repeating yourself about this issue which effected worldwide is helpless.
As I said earlier before , if you save time to post (whatever it is which people is already knew) and put an oder in, you won't have to repeating people's issue.
This happen to any stocks , not just ATM. If you dislike : SELL NOW. If you like this stock : BUY NOW.

Repeat especially for you.

I have been very open about me keeping an eye on ATM as a turnaround story.

Can’t see the turnaround yet and imo, sp has a long way to fall before it represents value.

Meanwhile, whatever I read or glean information from, I post (both negative & positive) in the interest of keeping all informed.

You have a problem with that?

PS. Have a look at FBU in recent years - plenty of negative points around but nobody complained, and the reward of investing in a turnaround stock is there for all to see.

[Balance]

As mentioned earlier. If you don't have faith in a stock : SELL NOW . And do not NAG. Or believe and love this stock and just looking for a cheap entry!
People whom have faith in the stock and believe this is it : BUY NOW / HOLD.

Compare and contrast, tomm:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...&highlight=fbu

Plenty of negative comments on FBU which were welcomed.

Actually means better entry price into the stock for those who do their homework.

Never get emotional with a stock - it clouds your judgement.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looking at A2 at the moment, to me the most puzzling aspect is MVM.

We all know the issue with daigou/sales/revenue - and the processing agreement with SML. Surely at the moment they don't need more supply capacity.

To re-visit the investor update from the most recent announcement:

Strategic rationale

• Mitigate risk by providing both supplier and geographic diversification
• MVM is a recently constructed and commissioned state of the art nutritionals facility, which will complementour existing supply relationships
• The plant has been independently validated by industry experts as being capable of producing the highestquality nutritional products
• It is well located for access to a growing productive milk pool supported by favourable climatic conditions andwater availability
• Currently majority owned by a respected China state owned enterprise – China Animal Husbandry Group –which will continue as a strategic shareholder and assist with developing the business in China

The plant has been a bit of dog since it has been built, but heard the original holders didn't tip in the capital they promised and milk supply a hodge-podge with everyone at different pricing, among other things.

It obviously has potential, and spreads geographic/supply risk - but what can they do that Synlait can't or couldn't? Have they just taken the opportunity while it has come up?

Or is this more a Synlait story - we all know how how reliant they are on A2 for their cream, but remembering that A2 own near 20% of SML, valued at $170m even at todays SP. Synlait updated the market at the same time as ATM before Christmas and said their IF volumes were going to be down 35% of the year and NPAT would halve (from $75m last year). Synlait have all sorts of issues, but is this a margin grab by A2? Or are they also worried about Synlait in some way?

Would be waaaaay too elementary, but $37.5m less NPAT on a volume drop of 35% might suggest they make $100m/pa out of A2. And SML have alot of other issues with their profitability. But regardless alot of value of A2 in that SML SP. So are A2 trying long-term to take that processing margin to MVM, at the expense of Synlait - with whom A2 don't have a rep on the board.

While I can understand the "Strategic Rationale", surely at the end of the day they bought them because they think they need more product and capacity? The trouble is they probably couldn't tip that money into Synlait without triggering some sort of takeover.

Then in the "transitional period" they are expecting to lose another $10m per annum, until FY 2025 - which seems a long time when the plant has already been up and operating for a few years. Then does A2 have the expertise and experience to make the plant work?

Maybe the plant came for sale and they looked at their cash pile, and thought "why not". Or maybe it is a hedge against the (ever-increasing) competition who own their own plants, can produce A2 and are attacking them on price & squeezing margins - and the start of A2 becoming more vertically integrated, and a more traditional producer model.

Clearly they haven't been willing to spend a large chunk of their cash pile and have a real big crack on marketing and building their moat (ie their brand). Will they roll the dice and go post-Covid?

I still can't work out whether they've just seized the opportunity, or if it is a margin grab, or they need the volume, or that they've just essentially raised the white flag to the competition......or a combo of each.

Still puzzled.....

[tomm]

Compare and contrast, tomm:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...&highlight=fbu

Plenty of negative comments on FBU which were welcomed.

Actually means better entry price into the stock for those who do their homework.

Never get emotional with a stock - it clouds your judgement.

You are making me Laugh.... You have no ideas how much this stock has made money for me so far. In love with a stock doesn't mean anything > I am inlove with this stock for both emotional and material reason.
It is indeed a superb product and this stock you can make money quick! Hope you got it.

[Balance]

You are making me Laugh.... You have no ideas how much this stock has made money for me so far. In love with a stock doesn't mean anything > I am inlove with this stock for both emotional and material reason.
It is indeed a superb product and this stock you can make money quick! Hope you got it.

Very pleased for you then!

So chill - your postings suggest someone stressed out from being in love with a losing stock.

Relax and let the market does what it wants to do.