ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ruby]

a2 has launched a few products recently which I believe the market is sleeping on(Smart Nutrition UHT and Full Cream UHT). Further diversifying into a China where a large portion of milk consumed is UHT. Sales on JD in the last few days have gone parabolic, and the reason why a2 is up today.

From last year;
https://edairynews.com/en/chinese-in...-minute-80033/
Chinese influencers sell 70,000 cartons of Kiwi UHT milk in a minute

[Beagle]

Of course. But just incessantly repeating 'downgrades come in threes' or now 'downgrades come in four's' isn't really that helpful. There is a lot to take into consideration, like peoples investment timeframes, if your holding for 2-5 years, maybe a fourth downgrade isn't the B all and end all?
If we were all to follow your advice and sell out now, and a fourth downgrade didn't eventuate, would you be here to financially compensate us? No, and I wouldn't expect it. But that proves my previous point that its much easier to criticise from the sidelines when you're not invested, than it would be to make those calls when your own money is on the line.

What about the possibility that a 4th downgrade is priced in? The SP didn't drop after the HY result because of it exceeding HY guidance, it dropped because of the uncertainty around FY results. Would seem to me as though a decent amount of downside risk is priced in.

My reckoning is that based on FY21 of 31 cps, (third official downgrade) at $9.90 they're trading on a forward PE of 32. That's the sort of PE they used to trade on years ago when they were growing really strongly and future growth was all but assured. That official revised company forecast is predicated on a significant recovery in Q4 sales, (which may or may not happen), and the very latest data we have is reports from Craigs based on their management visit in February that January 2021 sales are down 70% year on year. I can't make it any clearer than that. Join the dots. If I thought there was money to be made in the near future, believe me I wouldn't be on the sidelines.

Look, if it would help, I could put the boot into ATM for a bit ?

Entry to the exclusive club isn't free...you have to earn your stripes Besides I'm tired and someone else needs to be lead dog for a while to earn their dog biscuit.

[Gregnz]

My reckoning is that based on FY21 of 31 cps, (third official downgrade) at $9.90 they're trading on a forward PE of 32. That's the sort of PE they used to trade on years ago when they were growing really strongly and future growth was all but assured. That official revised company forecast is predicated on a significant recovery in Q4 sales, (which may or may not happen), and the very latest data we have is reports from Craigs based on their management visit in February that January 2021 sales are down 70% year on year. I can't make it any clearer than that. Join the dots. If I thought there was money to be made in the near future, believe me I wouldn't be on the sidelines.

I can't dispute the facts, but we are basing that 70% on one investment firms visit? I'm yet to see a single substantial holder notice to indicate that the 87%+ have started selling out? I'm sure they also have access to company visits, and the HY results road show?

[Biscuit]

..... someone else needs to be lead dog for a while to earn their dog biscuit.

As a matter of trivial fact, Biscuit was the name of my old cat.

[winner69]

All should take heed of this B Team .... after all its people like Derek Handley who inspire them to heights of greatness,...esp the bits about doing good for people

Balance in particular has often raved about Derek and Beagle is all for social and planet things.

[tomm]

Greg,as I am trying to learn,are you saying if someone says "downgrades always come in 3's"...then I load up after the 3rd,are you saying there could be a 4th & 5th downgrade...sheesh,this is more difficult than I thought,I may have to stay after class a bit longer.

Well , if this Sp keep going like this, I am totally ok with the 6th or 7th down grade..from whoever predicting it..
Lovely to see it touched the $10.00 .

[Joshuatree]

Another thing to consider is Globally there is a big cyclic shift from growth to value stocks with the worry of inflation and the 10 year int rate going up.

[winner69]

I'm not too sure how bull fits into the B Team

But then again the team/gang must have a had a pow wow this morning as bull seems to have convinced Beagle to have a close look at WHS

Now there's abig tip for you

[porkandpuha]

Has it ever crossed your mind that some of the old hands would like to give back a bit and help youngsters avoid those mistakes ?

Has it ever crossed your mind that a condescending, egotistical, gloating piece of "advice" is hardly going to generate a high uptake among these supposed youngsters you think are listening?

If you need to demand your respect from others by pointing towards age, number of posts or historical investing decisions.... chances are you have lost all likelihood that the desired outcome will be achieved.

[porkandpuha]

I'm not too sure how bull fits into the B Team

But then again the team/gang must have a had a pow wow this morning as bull seems to have convinced Beagle to have a close look at WHS

Now there's abig tip for you

The difference is, Bull is capable of giving a negative viewpoint on a stock without sounding like an "I know better than you" douche about it.