ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

No emotive language,no exclamation marks and no emojis,well done,see,its not that hard,give yourself a pat on the back.

Don't you worry about 'pats' - I get plenty for helping many avoid the red ink all over ATM in the last 5 months.

Sorry the market could not give you a green at the end of the day to pat yourself with. I am really truly sorry for you.

Wait for the fourth downgrade - then there will be more reds!

[JeremyALD]

Don't you worry about 'pats' - I get plenty for helping many avoid the red ink all over ATM in the last 5 months.

Sorry the market could not give you a green at the end of the day to pat yourself with. I am really truly sorry for you.

Wait for the fourth downgrade - then there will be more reds!

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

[imarktu]

Sometimes I can't believe the things I see on this forum. Who needs Facebook drama?

[Balance]

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

What unadulterated garbage.

Are we not allowed to challenge those who want only positive postings?

And ATM is a success story but will be no more if it continues the way it has for the last year - hyping up its prospects while management & directors sold shares, then issuing 3 downgrades in 6 months which show they have no clue how bad things are.

Plus, there is an Ignore button in settings for you to use.

[Rawz]

I think you need to give it a break on this thread. You seem to take glee in others loses, while also wishing for one of the biggest kiwi success stories to fail.

To be fair there are four people in this thread that need to have a break. Sucking up all the oxygen and keeping away other ST posters because they don't want to get caught up in the mud slinging

[Ferg]

TLDR: statistics says you cannot predict the SP movement of ATM based on the SP movement of SML and vice versa, although they are pretty much in lock step with eachother so far for 2021.

I did some work on the correlation between the closing price of ATM versus SML. I also broke it down by year and also tried each stock leading the other by 1-5 days, also for each year.

The overall correlation between the two from 2017-2021 is +0.47. In other words about half the time each stock moves in the same direction as the other on a daily basis.

Looking at the different years, 2021 has the 2nd highest correlation at +0.82, the years 2018-2020 had correlations less than +0.5 and 2017 was +0.98.

Advancing each stock relative to the other by 1-5 days generally results in lower correlations versus those where we compare the closing prices on the same day. In other words, the movement of one stock cannot be used to predict the daily/weekly movement of the other. Although I note there was a slightly increasing correlation for ATM leading SML in 2018, but it was still less than +0.5.

Summary data FYI:

Correlations	= Date	ATM+1	ATM+2	ATM+3	ATM+4	ATM+5	SML+1	SML+2	SML+3	SML+4	SML+5
Daily Close 2017-2021	0.47	0.47	0.46	0.46	0.45	0.45	0.47	0.47	0.47	0.47	0.47
Daily Close 2021	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.74	0.69	0.64	0.76	0.73	0.68	0.62	0.58
Daily Close 2020	0.36	0.35	0.35	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36
Daily Close 2019	0.22	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.11	0.09	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22
Daily Close 2018	0.41	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.39	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.27
Daily Close 2017	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
Monthly Close 2017-2021	0.45

[porkandpuha]

To be fair there are four people in this thread that need to have a break. Sucking up all the oxygen and keeping away other ST posters because they don't want to get caught up in the mud slinging

They can't. It's the highlight of their day. And they use this thread (ironically all non holders) as an echo chamber meeting ground to rub each others "B" parts and tell each other how well they are doing "helping the people" despite more and more putting them on ignore.

Thanks Ferg for getting a quality post in amongst it all.

[Rawz]

They can't. It's the highlight of their day. And they use this thread (ironically all non holders) as an echo chamber meeting ground to rub each others "B" parts and tell each other how well they are doing "helping the people" despite more and more putting them on ignore.

Thanks Ferg for getting a quality post in amongst it all.

I was talking about some posters who are holders as well!

But agree, Ferg- great post

[Mista_Trix]

What unadulterated garbage.

Are we not allowed to challenge those who want only positive postings?

And ATM is a success story but will be no more if it continues the way it has for the last year - hyping up its prospects while management & directors sold shares, then issuing 3 downgrades in 6 months which show they have no clue how bad things are.

Plus, there is an Ignore button in settings for you to use.

By all means challenge. But what it's become is you two just bickering. Your posts are gold, dont get dragged down by frustrating inexperienced punters.

[davflaws]

Balance is an extremely experienced and incredibly knowledgeable investor. But like all of us, he has his blind spots. One of them is his deep and visceral hatred for anything to the left of his own right wing political stance. But that is not the main cause of the friction. For whatever reason (genetics, character, upbringing - whatever), Balance apparently believes that anyone he disagrees with is the enemy, and that he is accordingly entitled to treat them unkindly. That is a shame, because it often results in an unpleasant spiral of niggly exchanges that is a turnoff for many people. All of us catch more flies with honey than we do with vinegar.

With Beagle I have learned to take the wuff with the smooth. (old joke)