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25-03-2021, 05:35 AM
#20901
Australia's population shrinks for the first time since WWI as COVID turns off immigration tap
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-...-bite/13256938
less babies = less infant formula sales. simple maths. covid means a population decline in new births world wide
one step ahead of the herd
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25-03-2021, 08:26 AM
#20902
 Originally Posted by bull....
Population decline due to lack of immigration does not impact on the number of babies needing milk formula ... unless you are saying that its mainly babies immigrating to Australia?
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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25-03-2021, 09:22 AM
#20903
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25-03-2021, 10:22 AM
#20904
Originally Posted by Blue Skies
If anyone seriously worried about the maths, i.e. less babies = less IF sales, personally - I wouldn't.
Over 10 Million babies born in China last year, most of us can't really comprehend the size of this market, A2 barely touching the surface of it.
Worry about other things instead. 
you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share
one step ahead of the herd
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25-03-2021, 12:49 PM
#20905
[QUOTE=bull....;877699]you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share]
With respect, although the facts you provide are accurate, I don't agree that they provide a significant increase in risk to ATM. Even with a reduced number of babies, increasing preference for local brands, and increased competition in the market, the opportunities are still enormous.
Disc: I dropped half my ATM holding at 12.90 for reasons that had nothing to do with my belief in ATM's prospects.
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25-03-2021, 04:17 PM
#20906
[QUOTE=davflaws;877755]
Originally Posted by bull....
you not taking into account feihei is the national champion in the infant formula space now , used to be a2. as nationalism rises so will local brand buying. baby births declining world wide means the available market in the future is smaller with potentially more players fighting for declining market share]
With respect, although the facts you provide are accurate, I don't agree that they provide a significant increase in risk to ATM. Even with a reduced number of babies, increasing preference for local brands, and increased competition in the market, the opportunities are still enormous.
Disc: I dropped half my ATM holding at 12.90 for reasons that had nothing to do with my belief in ATM's prospects.
Huge market, enormous opportunities and intense competition - no free lunches out there.
Meanwhile, here's the latest recommendation update from Citi :
A2 Milk share price rated as a sell
Citi analysts have paid close attention to the results of Feihe, the largest and most highly recognised Chinese infant milk formula company. Feihe reported an online and offline market share of 17.20% in Q3 2020, with an ambitious goal to have at least 30% market share by 2023. The broker believes that competition is likely to continue for foreign infant milk formula players such as A2.
Citi maintained a sell rating for A2 Milk shares with a $7.15 target price. The broker believes that reseller inventory could be moving closer to expiry, forcing them to sell it at a discount.
Taking a look at the bigger picture, Citi highlights ongoing pressures with birthrates as a threat to infant formula demand. It also believes that Australia-China geopolitical tensions could ultimately restrict inventory flow.
Citi isn’t the only one bearish on the A2 Milk share price. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) announced on Tuesday it had reduced its stake in A2 Milk from 46.9 million shares or 6.34% of the company to 39.5 million shares or 5.32%.
Last edited by Balance; 25-03-2021 at 04:18 PM.
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25-03-2021, 04:33 PM
#20907
Forecasted FY21 eps of 33 cps, probably only ~ 28 cents per share after the fourth downgrade. Put a no growth PE of 11 on that and ~ $3 is possible.
Wonder if a well known former poster has gone "all in" ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-03-2021, 12:51 PM
#20908
Originally Posted by tomm
Smart people are loading up exept trollers looking for cheap entry .... 
Sp was $9.82 then when the ‘smart’ people were loading up!
Going to be A$7.50 by next week at the current declining sp rate of between 1% to 2% a day.
And this is happening before the new CEO downgrade!
Last edited by Balance; 26-03-2021 at 12:54 PM.
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26-03-2021, 01:10 PM
#20909
If the dreaded fourth downgrade comes and SP tanks 15-20 % then I am ready to take the plunge again ...lost some when bailed out before Dec downgrade as followed KFL advise that things not happening as anticipated
Think 7-750 shud be low enough price to make some money in 12 months time !!!
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26-03-2021, 02:38 PM
#20910
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