ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[tomm]

Expecting a green day today.

[Ferg]

I'm back in. Small position but will accumulate from now on.

Same. I'm a contrarian. Small holding and accumulating. I know one shouldn't catch a falling knife but there comes a point where this is oversold - although it's hard to tell where that level is in light of the current SP trend versus growth in the non-daigou Chinese channels and growth in the US market share. ATM have a very small share of some very large markets. And if this shake-up results in a move away from and/or less reliance on daigou, then ATM will come out of this a better business. Daigou channels don't sit well with me from the perspective of sustainable business.

[Akane]

expecting a green day today.

hahahahahaha

[Beagle]

Same. I'm a contrarian. Small holding and accumulating. I know one shouldn't catch a falling knife but there comes a point where this is oversold - although it's hard to tell where that level is in light of the current SP trend versus growth in the non-daigou Chinese channels and growth in the US market share. ATM have a very small share of some very large markets. And if this shake-up results in a move away from and/or less reliance on daigou, then ATM will come out of this a better business. Daigou channels don't sit well with me from the perspective of sustainable business.

Interesting call mate. In my experience you seldom come out smelling like roses when trying to pick bottom's Safer way is to wait for others to try and pick the bottom and buy on a new confirmed uptrend, (whenever that might be). A good much lower risk strategy might be to wait and wait until there's a break up through the 30 day moving average and put on a half sized position and then the other half when a new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. At the moment I cannot foresee what could possibly be the near term catalyst for the steep decline rate to change ? The trend is definitely not your friend at present !

[bull....]

Expecting a green day today.

something smells fishy , its been down everyday just about

[JohnnyTheHorse]

something smells fishy , its been down everyday just about

Shorts are decreasing too so should in theory be supporting the price. 4 weeks of pretty much going down every day with not even a small bounce... you don't see this very often.

[Balance]

Shorts are decreasing too so should in theory be supporting the price. 4 weeks of pretty much going down every day with not even a small bounce... you don't see this very often.

But for the short coverings, sp would be below A$7.50 support point.

[Ferg]

Interesting call mate. In my experience you seldom come out smelling like roses when trying to pick bottom's Safer way is to wait for others to try and pick the bottom and buy on a new confirmed uptrend, (whenever that might be). A good much lower risk strategy might be to wait and wait until there's a break up through the 30 day moving average and put on a half sized position and then the other half when a new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. At the moment I cannot foresee what could possibly be the near term catalyst for the steep decline rate to change ? The trend is definitely not your friend at present !

Hey Beagle. Appreciate your thoughts. Buying on the counter cycle has mostly worked for me locally and on the US market - sometimes it comes down to how long one is prepared to wait or cutting losses if it doesn't go to plan. I have also stated in another post elsewhere I have the reverse Midas touch so I'm more than used to being under on an investment initially, while I wait for the market and my views to align, either good or bad. 100% understood about trends and the risks, and if it turns out I am incorrect then I have no-one to blame but myself and I will own that. For context, I bought a number of stocks against the trend in 2020 including HLG, on which I was down for a couple of months. Winner questioned whether HLG had yet turned a corner on fundamentals based on available stats, but my stated view at that time was it had been over-sold. What I have observed is that once a stock turns (either way) it turns too fast to react in a meaningful way, at which point one is back to buying (or selling) on a trend which isn't really my thing. I prefer to sniff out value in the belief something is over-sold. I use a combination of fundamentals and an assumption stocks prices move irrationally due to fear and greed. I don't normally post my positions until some months after I have taken action and I kind of regret making that earlier post - but it's out there now. ATM is just a toe in the water at this point, so.....watch this space!

[Waltzing]

One foot wrong from the queen bee and her workers and NZ will gets it turn in the ring.

Its just too high a risk and has been for a while.

Aussi wine makers still being hammered.

[bottomfeeder]

NTA backing just too low for a company with a premium product. It amazing just how fast a premium product becomes a non premium product, when everyone starts getting on the bandwagon. It's like a pyramid scheme. Those that got in early reaped the rewards. Now the risk comes in. You are betting that supply and demand are going to remain in your favor.