ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[alokdhir]

May is seasonally a bad month for A2M, on 10 year average it's only one of three months down during the year. Shorts are climbing again, over 6% now. Chart is rubbish.

Got another parcel this week.

So most likely another downgrade and then we fulfil June's seasonality of up month ....but IMHO most likely downgrade if any will come in June mid as per past record of waiting till last moment to inform poor minority investors ...remember 18th Dec news !!!

[Balance]

QoQ reporting always way to go eh Balance .....seasonally adjusted revenues up 75% I think

Commentary also mentions daigou channel down 15% on last year ...but not as bad as previous quarter

Market not fooled by the 'positive' commentary from BUB - sp down 6.8% on Friday.

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufa...0210430-p57npq

Bubs quarterly sales crunched as daigous slow to return

[Balance]

Deleted deleted

[KJMLimited]

Most likely ATM is out from MSCI and rightly MFT/FBU in ....such indexes represent upcoming or going up companies while going down ones gets kicked out till they get their act together if they can ...this is how passive investors make money by keep following indexes which keep churning for flab out and new muscle in ...

There should not be any debate about it ....ATM needs to go as its not performed and MFT/FBU have done and doing better so for the sake of passive investors and to keep their faith in following such indexes this change need happen .

No entirely correct. Index funds are about how companies do relative to each other, not the absolute. Ie ATM could remain a dog and still be in the MSCI if FBU etc are also dogs.

[Akane]

This thread always seems to turn into a dogs breakfast. Almost without fail.

We need the company to make an announcement so something relevant can be chewed over.

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Funny how it's "the SP is bad because we have supply issues with the daigou", at the same time "we have so much stock that we need to discount sell them"
They still fail to realise A2 has no moat and it's just milk - easily replicated, and the CCP is pushing a narrative of nationalism, less reliance on foreign commodities.

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

[Balance]

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Thanks Akane - I have highlighted the most pertinent part of your post because that is the most unfortunate part about some of the ATM posters here.

And it has cost them dearly.

I actually believe ATM still has excellent potential but its strategy needs a major reset before it's too late.

Which is why it is so vitally critical for the new CEO to do a full and proper no-holds-bar assessment of the company and make his announcement to the market.

Meanwhile, the three earnings downgrades to date (like what happened with FBU) tells us all that there's a lot wrong with the company which needs fixing.

[RGR367]

................

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.


DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

Yeah it's a dog and as a buyer then at 54 cents it was just a puppy It has to drop another 6 bucks to lose all my paper profit so pardon me for not feeling sorry that what you bought wasn't a bull.

[Akane]

Yeah it's a dog and as a buyer then at 54 cents it was just a puppy It has to drop another 6 bucks to lose all my paper profit so pardon me for not feeling sorry that what you bought wasn't a bull.

I don't need anyone to feel sorry for me on an internet forum bud. I just need people to wake up to the fact that in this current state, A2 is a pile of turd. And when we have experienced traders like Balance trying to bring some facts into the mix, stop trying to shut him out because there are us here who wants to listen and learn so we don't make the same mistakes again.

btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65

[Ruby]

People are just so in love with this stock and "I didn't / it can do no wrong" mentality, it's amazing how they're defending it but it just kept going down. HC is a classic cesspool of this attitude, calling everyone who present hard facts as a "downramper".

People seriously think some negative posts on a forum can move hundreds of millions of dollars? lol

This stock is a dog, I've recognised that and trying to learn as much from Balance as I can from the sidelines, expensive lesson but it's very valuable, hope I won't make the same mistakes ever again.

Funny how it's "the SP is bad because we have supply issues with the daigou", at the same time "we have so much stock that we need to discount sell them"
They still fail to realise A2 has no moat and it's just milk - easily replicated, and the CCP is pushing a narrative of nationalism, less reliance on foreign commodities.

Imagine being so in love with this pile of crap that you have to find an echo chamber to fulfil your confirmation bias.

DISC: lost a lot on this dog, holding it to remind me on a daily how I screwed up.

Sorry to hear you lost money on ATM,you not the first and this is not the only stock anyone has ever lost money on.
I agree the over emotional 'up rampers' are just as bad as the 'down rampers',but when anyone says this is going to $50for sure they are dreaming,but to be fair,this is far from a 'dog stock' and it is that sort of over emotive language that winds people up I think.
I agree with Balance that the CEO's first communication with their strategy is going to be more important than the numbers.
There are going to be many companies that had big swings due to covid disruption that are going to have numbers all over the place,so YOY figures are open to interpretation from both sides.Hell you only have to look at some of the Kiwisaver providers touting their 120% returns for the last 12 months.
Yes this company has to pivot to a different mix of distribution,which they had already started before covid.
The statement about supply issues isn't really correct,there was massive 'pantry stocking' leading into the Melbourne Daigou collapse,so obviously that channel did dry up,but their wasn't a shortage due to the pantry stocking which then meant there was ample supply in China sitting in corporate daigou and others shelves.
This is all very cyclical,it will be interesting for instance to see what happens to FPH as the world returns to some normality and the 'pantry stocking' of ventilators over the last year comes to an end.
The average Chinese company with a 3d scanner could replicate their devices pretty quickly.
The CCP may be pushing a nationalism narrative,but anyone who has lived or done business in Asia knows that what is said,is not always what is actually happening and the fact that a large proportion of ATM's business is essentially a 'joint venture' with govt agencies will hold them in good stead.
Anyhow,good luck to all,what ever you may hold.

[Ruby]

I don't need anyone to feel sorry for me on an internet forum bud. I just need people to wake up to the fact that in this current state, A2 is a pile of turd. And when we have experienced traders like Balance trying to bring some facts into the mix, stop trying to shut him out because there are us here who wants to listen and learn so we don't make the same mistakes again.

btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65

I think if you left out the words 'turd' and your last paragraph,then you might garner more respect,as you say stick to facts and leave the 'rubbish comments out,then everyone is happy.
"
btw, your paper gains has shrunk from 37x to 14x, although you haven't loss anything unlike many others, I wouldn't call it a smart move neither when you had the chance to sell at $20 and buy back in at $7.65"