ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Oberon]

Looks like the bottom is in.

For the tenth time.

It's a bottom when there's been consolidation and change in direction established on the higher timeframe. As I've said over at HC for weeks, all I've wanted is a $1 retrace from a low. That's it.

I'm with Beagle - frankly, why wouldn't you be? Wait for the damn thing to turn around, presuming your goal is to capture a larger trend. Even couta is advising newcomers to stay clear until the end of the FY.

[alokdhir]

I remember reading here some TA expert had said that break of long term triangle ...target $ 6 ....that happened ...now as $ 6 was important level so need see if it stays over it or its just a bounce from overshoot of $6 and downtrend will resume after technically correcting oversold levels .

IMHO good chance it will try to retest $ 5.40 again

[BlackPeter]

Looks like the bottom is in.

For the tenth time.

It's a bottom when there's been consolidation and change in direction established on the higher timeframe. As I've said over at HC for weeks, all I've wanted is a $1 retrace from a low. That's it.

I'm with Beagle - frankly, why wouldn't you be? Wait for the damn thing to turn around, presuming your goal is to capture a larger trend. Even couta is advising newcomers to stay clear until the end of the FY.

Hmm ... not quite sure. Based on which indicators are you saying the bottom is in? Does not look different to me than many of the ripples before.

A2Mtrend.JPG

I am sure that the hope for a trend change is overwhelming (in case you use his as an indicator), but other than that ... looks like there is still a long way to go before it may or may not trigger any of the more frequently used indicators.

[mike2020]

Backing this pony based on form rather than charts and trends is the safe way to go. Put a price on that with EPS and NTA and factor in no growth in anything, margins or sales, you will be being too kind. It is just that simple.

[BlackPeter]

Backing this pony based on form rather than charts and trends is the safe way to go. Put a price on that with EPS and NTA and factor in no growth in anything, margins or sales, you will be being too kind. It is just that simple.

Not sure whether "simple" is the right word.

At the end of the day - the only thing which counts for a company is the future, and - as with all other companies, the future for ATM is unknown.

If this company returns to an earnings CAGR of 15 or more, than it is cheap at todays prices. If it does not, it is too dear, easy as that.

The difficult part is to determine which of these cases it will be :

[Balance]

Not sure whether "simple" is the right word.

At the end of the day - the only thing which counts for a company is the future, and - as with all other companies, the future for ATM is unknown.

If this company returns to an earnings CAGR of 15 or more, than it is cheap at todays prices. If it does not, it is too dear, easy as that.

The difficult part is to determine which of these cases it will be :

Which is why it is best to wait for the strategy review and reset - and assess accordingly then.

If one needs to pay more to get into what can be a good story then, it is a well considered risk/reward decision.

There is no big hurry to put money into ATM until then, unless you think there is going to be a takeover (as in Bellamys).

Meanwhile, should be some good trading until the strategy reset for the traders out there.

[Akane]

So what ATM really needs is another 100% home grown chinese food adulteration scandal preferably involving infant formula. Just a matter of time really.

Doubt Winnie the Pooh will allow such news to get out even if it happened. It's all about face.

[flyinglizard]

Synlait Milk now expects $20m- $30m loss due to delay in shipping, lower sales price, and inventory problem.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372628

Is it SML only problem or an industry status? Better wait for Fonterra updates.

For ATM, the board does not know and will have a long-term strategy review in Aug.

However, Some brokers believe that ATM will have fundamental improvement and a U-turn in coming FY. Do they have a disclosure whether they hold ATM? Is there any conflict interest when they released such conclusion?

[Balance]

Doubt Winnie the Pooh will allow such news to get out even if it happened. It's all about face.

Just as it is in NZ about baby killers (like the Kahui twins killings and the numerous other infants killed) being given face?

Which is why history keeps repeating itself in NZ when it comes to infant killings?

[Balance]

https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/05...xsm1-guidance/

Implication of Synlait’s latest downgrade on ATM - one view anyway.