ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Lease]

More positive news: A2 Tmall English label unit sale price has gone up.

I have been following A2 Tmall sales for the last a couple of months. Previously the price was around RMB 210. Although some shops still sale at lower price, this is the first time I have seen the product unit sale price go up over the last a couple months.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Covered an additional 1/3rd yesterday on that hourly trend change back bullish and stopped out of the rest today. Showing very notable strength now. I think shorts will be starting to sweat and should provide support on the downside. Next real resistance is ~AU$7.50, at which point we'd probably be at daily overbought conditions too.

[Hoop]

Guru TA guy, Hoots on HC reckons ATM now above 50day EMA and has filled the gap caused by the last downgrade.
[Au Chart]
Next upwards gap in our sights.

Market Physics at work
Yes the $A6 - $A7 gap is filled on the AU:A2M chart when the price returns to $A7.00. I see it had traded above 7 then fell back a few cents (due to the top of the gap being a resistance point). Having that pause was something to watch out for because the price traveling upwards through the gap vacuum requires little momentum energy..The proof of the pudding is ..has it got enough momentum to carry on upward after the vacuum?? That answer came about an hour ago when A2M got its second wind and broke through that gap resistance ($A7.00) and is currently as I type it is $A7.11 +42c +6.37%). Price carrying on after filling the gap proves A2M today had indeed got good upward momentum (very bullish sign).

The NZ:ATM ($NZ7.43 +27c +3.8%) did not not quite fill the gap as the NZ exchange closed for the day before the A2M got it's second wind..

Both A2M and ATM broke above their EMA50 on Friday the 2nd July (a buy signal).

On the NZ chart there are some resistance levels at $NZ8..$NZ9...and the next Gap at $NZ10 - 11....NOTE: how the price resistances are very psychologically based. We must be emotional people when it comes to trading Milk...eh

[RupertBear]

Market Physics at work
Yes the $A6 - $A7 gap is filled on the AU:A2M chart when the price returns to $A7.00. I see it had traded above 7 then fell back a few cents (due to the top of the gap being a resistance point). Having that pause was something to watch out for because the price traveling upwards through the gap vacuum requires little momentum energy..The proof of the pudding is ..has it got enough momentum to carry on upward after the vacuum?? That answer came about an hour ago when A2M got its second wind and broke through that gap resistance ($A7.00) and is currently as I type it is $A7.11 +42c +6.37%). Price carrying on after filling the gap proves A2M today had indeed got good upward momentum (very bullish sign).

The NZ:ATM ($NZ7.43 +27c +3.8%) did not not quite fill the gap as the NZ exchange closed for the day before the A2M got it's second wind..

Both A2M and ATM broke above their EMA50 on Friday the 2nd July (a buy signal).

On the NZ chart there are some resistance levels at $NZ8..$NZ9...and the next Gap at $NZ10 - 11....NOTE: how the resistances are very psychologically based. We must be emotional people when it comes to trading Milk...eh

Thanks Hoop, love your posts

[Leftfield]

Thanks Hoop - you can be the NZ TA Guru any day

[JohnnyTheHorse]

ASX consolidating before breaking out to new highs and close near highs at end of day suggests another strong day is likely. The ASX close was equivalent of NZ$7.56.

[Maxtrade]

JTH,

So far you are exactly on point. Your chart that you predicted is following exactly how you saw it playing out.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attach...6&d=1624672799

Thank you for your guidance and information. I suspect from what we are now seeing today, which is in line with your chart prediction, there will be a turnaround at 7.25 NZD (6.75 AUD), followed by a steady decline. (7.25 NZD is right on 0.5 on the fibonacci for the turn around). Now I understand what you were referring to, with seeing where the next drop will bottom out to see if the trough is formed then.

Am I understanding correctly now?

However if pushes past this 6.75AUD level then would that indicate the trough was as I had indicated in May?


Thanks again

At this point would it be fair enough to say now that it looks like it was the trough May 19th then May 26th. Didn't get a pull back to another low once hit 7.25NZD as the chart you had previously posted indicated may happen. Therefore can we deduce that the bottom trough formed end of may and now looks like a steady rally kicking in here on up.

The difficult part is sitting on the sideline seeing a 36% recovery rally already happen and not capitalising on it due to uncertainty on if there was going to be a second drop in SP. Which doesn't look like it is going to happen now.

Thanks again for feedback

[Beagle]

Good for traders. From an investors point of view the 100 day moving average looks like just on $7.95 and a sustained break up through that may signal a definitive change of momentum but from a FA point of view we really need to see their annual result and any outlook comments before any real degree of comfort can be taken that this really is investable again.

[Maxtrade]

Good for traders. From an investors point of view the 100 day moving average looks like just on $7.95 and a sustained break up through that may signal a definitive change of momentum but from a FA point of view we really need to see their annual result and any outlook comments before any real degree of comfort can be taken that this really is investable again.

Very true beagle. The strange thing now is with how many new retail traders there seems to be since Covid. People looking to put their money to work in a low interest environment. Value investors seem to be moving Sp's more on trading rather than company fundamentals. If it was purely based on company strength then ATM shouldn't be rallying yet, however it seems to be because people are trading trends more than reality. Air New Zealand it's another prime example of this currently. Where the SP should be dropping much lower yet the resistance of value investors seeing current SP as low seems to be propping the SP up. Air NZ can keep saying more and more negative news, with a share dilution on the way and no profits in sight, yet the SP still is bound in the current range due to retail investors seeing the current SP as being historically low.

FOMO I guess is kicking in for ATM. Similarly myself where I mentioned seeing a 36% gain pass by already while sitting on the sidelines waiting for reassurance we are above 12EMA etc before rebuying. If simply based off current trends it seems to be in bull territory.

[Baa_Baa]

Good for traders. From an investors point of view the 100 day moving average looks like just on $7.95 and a sustained break up through that may signal a definitive change of momentum but from a FA point of view we really need to see their annual result and any outlook comments before any real degree of comfort can be taken that this really is investable again.

There are a lot more of these types of articles and broker upgrades emerging in the past few weeks, note the focus on fundamentals and finding a balance for individual risk tolerance / rewards. No mention of chart technicals, but they've bought in.