ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Thanks for sharing Baa Baa. Good article and food for thought. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
Average broker forecast for FY22 is 25 cps on sales recovering to $1,387m and EBITDA margin of 20%.
At $7.68 that puts them on a FY22 forward PE of 31...more or less the same when Geoff Babbidge was running it many years ago and it was growing really strongly.

My thoughts are that Covid variants will dog us for many many years and the CCP will get increasingly forthright in pushing buy Chinese made. Are these risks factored into the current share price with that forward PE ?

I think there's a lot of people jumping on board this as a momentum trade. With no forecast dividend from an investment point of view taking into account the risks I am dubious that the above analysts average forecast supports a share price materially higher than the current one. If I'm wrong I'm okay with that and good luck to shareholders.

[44wishlists]

Nowadays there is something called A3 milk.

https://www.ourstruly.co.nz/shop/organic-milk
https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dai...and-of-a3-milk
https://www.a3organic.co.nz/home/

[JohnnyTheHorse]

At this point would it be fair enough to say now that it looks like it was the trough May 19th then May 26th. Didn't get a pull back to another low once hit 7.25NZD as the chart you had previously posted indicated may happen. Therefore can we deduce that the bottom trough formed end of may and now looks like a steady rally kicking in here on up.

The difficult part is sitting on the sideline seeing a 36% recovery rally already happen and not capitalising on it due to uncertainty on if there was going to be a second drop in SP. Which doesn't look like it is going to happen now.

Thanks again for feedback

Sounds like FOMO kicking in

The issues I have with buying in at current levels:

1. This is still just a counter rally in a monthly downtrend. A drop below previous lows is an entirely possible scenario (albeit less probable now).
2. The weekly trend has not changed. I do not trust a rally without a trend change. Increases chance of just a bear flag forming.
3. Where would you place your stoploss if you bought at these levels? Below previous lows risking ~40%?

In my view people should only be buying at these levels if they have information that the fundamental picture has favorably changed, or they are trading on shorter term timeframes. The million dollar question is whether this is being driven by that fundamental change or whether its a momentum trade and pressure on shorts.

[BlackPeter]

There are a lot more of these types of articles and broker upgrades emerging in the past few weeks, note the focus on fundamentals and finding a balance for individual risk tolerance / rewards. No mention of chart technicals, but they've bought in.

Thanks for sharing Baa Baa. Good article and food for thought. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
Average broker forecast for FY22 is 25 cps on sales recovering to $1,387m and EBITDA margin of 20%.
At $7.68 that puts them on a FY22 forward PE of 31...more or less the same when Geoff Babbidge was running it many years ago and it was growing really strongly.

My thoughts are that Covid variants will dog us for many many years and the CCP will get increasingly forthright in pushing buy Chinese made. Are these risks factored into the current share price with that forward PE ?

I think there's a lot of people jumping on board this as a momentum trade. With no forecast dividend from an investment point of view taking into account the risks I am dubious that the above analysts average forecast supports a share price materially higher than the current one. If I'm wrong I'm okay with that and good luck to shareholders.

Sounds like FOMO kicking in

The issues I have with buying in at current levels:

1. This is still just a counter rally in a monthly downtrend. A drop below previous lows is an entirely possible scenario (albeit less probable now).
2. The weekly trend has not changed. I do not trust a rally without a trend change. Increases chance of just a bear flag forming.
3. Where would you place your stoploss if you bought at these levels? Below previous lows risking ~40%?

In my view people should only be buying at these levels if they have information that the fundamental picture has favorably changed, or they are trading on shorter term timeframes. The million dollar question is whether this is being driven by that fundamental change or whether its a momentum trade and pressure on shorts.

Great posts - sharetrader at its finest (If we forget about the server issues .

I agree, the upwards pressure looks at this stage more like shorts closing and the AIR / FOMO crowd flowing in. I guess they need to chase something else after Gamestop and Hertz didn't work out, don't they?

From a fundamental perspective is ATM at these prices only a buy if it manages to return to pre Covid growth rates ... and so far I would not know why people expect that to happen. Baa_baa's link leads to a balanced analysis (worthwhile reading), pointing out risks as well as opportunities. So far I don't think however that anybody can predict how the dice will fall.

Anyway - I am sure our professional momentum traders will be dancing close enough to the exit ... it is just the mum & dad investors I am worried about.

[Sideshow Bob]

Nowadays there is something called A3 milk.

https://www.ourstruly.co.nz/shop/organic-milk
https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dai...and-of-a3-milk
https://www.a3organic.co.nz/home/

You'd think they'd come up with something original, rather than just try to take the value others have created.

[see weed]

Nowadays there is something called A3 milk.

https://www.ourstruly.co.nz/shop/organic-milk
https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dai...and-of-a3-milk
https://www.a3organic.co.nz/home/

They forgot to mention the a1 in the organic milk.

[Snoopy]

They forgot to mention the a1 in the organic milk.

No they didn't. From the last A3 link:

https://www.a3organic.co.nz/home/

-------

What is A3™?

A3™ = A2 Beta-casein cow’s milk + USDA/NOP organic certified.

----------

You are correct See weed in that organic milk can contain the A1 protein. But it isn't in the so called 'A3' organic milk.

SNOOPY

[see weed]

No they didn't. From the last A3 link:

https://www.a3organic.co.nz/home/

-------

What is A3™?

A3™ = A2 Beta-casein cow’s milk + USDA/NOP organic certified.

----------

You are correct See weed in that organic milk can contain the A1 protein. But it isn't in the so called 'A3' organic milk.

SNOOPY

Does that mean all their organic cows are a2 certified?

[Balance]

A2 getting some love from brokers and fund managers as well in recent days.

Watermark Funds Management chief investment officer Justin Braitling singled out A2 shares as “a strong buy”.

And last week, Bell Potter’s issued a ‘buy’ recommendation for A2, complete with a 12-month price target of $8.50.

[BlackPeter]

A2 getting some love from brokers and fund managers as well in recent days.

Watermark Funds Management chief investment officer Justin Braitling singled out A2 shares as “a strong buy”.

And last week, Bell Potter’s issued a ‘buy’ recommendation for A2, complete with a 12-month price target of $8.50.

Well, well - in June 2020 the broker consensus for ATM was NZ$18.97 per share. Share actually traded in June 2021 for less than $7.

Always good to validate the quality of broker recommendations. Oops - is this an oxymoron?