ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[JohnnyTheHorse]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M

Shorts building up momentum again so there are those who obviously see an opportunity to make money (again?) from the recovering sp.

Really interesting to watch this play out (and amazing trading in the meantime!). That data is 4 days delayed so will be interesting to see if they're still increasing after breaking some technical levels the last few days.

If the company is concerned about share price they just need a trader to time positive spin announcements for them. Right around key short stop levels to create pops in the price, creating endless short covering momentum. Elon Musk has been a master of this.

[Maxtrade]

Really interesting to watch this play out (and amazing trading in the meantime!). That data is 4 days delayed so will be interesting to see if they're still increasing after breaking some technical levels the last few days.

If the company is concerned about share price they just need a trader to time positive spin announcements for them. Right around key short stop levels to create pops in the price, creating endless short covering momentum. Elon Musk has been a master of this.

SP seems to be struggling to maintain above 7.6NZD (7.15AUD).

Thoughts on if you still think will drop back down to form a lower trough around the previous lows. Or if see it staying above 7.5NZD now and pushing through to break 8NZD ?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

SP seems to be struggling to maintain above 7.6NZD (7.15AUD).

Thoughts on if you still think will drop back down to form a lower trough around the previous lows. Or if see it staying above 7.5NZD now and pushing through to break 8NZD ?

We have retraced ~70% from the previous weekly high (wc 12/4) and low (wc 17/5) so odds strongly favour a weekly higher low being set (i.e. not falling below previous lows). Ideal scenario for the bulls is a retracement up to a maximum of AU$6.50 and then continuation, forming a weekly bull flag. I am still looking for the weekly lower high to be set, with the strong resistance rejection on Monday and daily overbought RSI indicating to watch for this. The bear volume hasn't be convincing though.

Disc: have been day trading with bullish bias last few days, however short again on NZX as of this morning, will short further on ASX if it gaps up on open (tight stops as am trading counter trend and further upside is real possibility).

[aperitif]

a2 continuing momentum from 618 sales, surpassing Aptamil. Serves as a proxy for penetration into Tier 3 & 4 cities as JD’s supply chain is more superior than other platforms.

6A80158E-199B-467A-B297-D56A4AFBBD6C.jpg

[Maxtrade]

well done
Seems to be a pattern emerging at the moment NZ bullish OZ bearish..before mid-day seems good for a shorting play.
Probably should but I don't play the shorting game.. It seems many are, maybe the reason for these mid-day slumpings.

Dont you think it's a little bit dangerous playing the game with ATM...as it is in a short/medium term rally mode.

SP breaking down through 7.5 NZD.

Guess its time to see if there gets a bullish push up off 7.5 being a resistance level. Or if it will break through indicating a fall back down through the gap zone and lower SP...

Any thoughts team?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

We have retraced ~70% from the previous weekly high (wc 12/4) and low (wc 17/5) so odds strongly favour a weekly higher low being set (i.e. not falling below previous lows). Ideal scenario for the bulls is a retracement up to a maximum of AU$6.50 and then continuation, forming a weekly bull flag. I am still looking for the weekly lower high to be set, with the strong resistance rejection on Monday and daily overbought RSI indicating to watch for this. The bear volume hasn't be convincing though.

Disc: have been day trading with bullish bias last few days, however short again on NZX as of this morning, will short further on ASX if it gaps up on open (tight stops as am trading counter trend and further upside is real possibility).

Had to be a bit more patient but there's the weakness I was looking for, with big spike in volume. Covered most of the position into AU$6.90 and now just looking for quick flips.

Bigger picture I am now looking for a daily higher low to be set and then a daily lower high, resulting in weekly consolidation.

[Maxtrade]

Had to be a bit more patient but there's the weakness I was looking for, with big spike in volume. Covered most of the position into AU$6.90 and now just looking for quick flips.

Bigger picture I am now looking for a daily higher low to be set and then a daily lower high, resulting in weekly consolidation.

So how low do you expect to see the SP retrace from here then? Back to AU$6?

Do you expect it to break above AU$7.0 before then retracing back further and harder?

[Hoop]

Big drop today when Ozzie opened..Continuing behaviour.. NZ bullish at opening Ozzie bearish at opening..Even with the previous rising share price it must be a great set up for the shorters as this behaviour has been happening for a while now.
The last few days has seen a lower than average volume
Anyway the rising trend is interrupted (breather?) at the EMA100 resistance, which isn't a surprise as we must remember the recovering?? ATM (A2M) is still in Bear status (price below the MA200). If ATM is trying to shake off its Bear Status then it is important that the EMA50 support area holds (~NZ$7.00) (~A$6.50)..Interestingly it is also the second support which a rule of thumb disciplined few will have their stops set just below that price.

As I type NZ$7.36 -21c -2.8% with no medium term (default settings) technical damage...only very short term damage.

Disc:Still holding

[JohnnyTheHorse]

So how low do you expect to see the SP retrace from here then? Back to AU$6?

Do you expect it to break above AU$7.0 before then retracing back further and harder?

Closed on the lows with the largest volume since the gap down so that's a short term red flag.

My ideal scenario I'm looking for is a flush down on the ASX within the first 15 mins tomorrow, hourly RSI oversold to coincide with support around AU$6.60, marking a daily higher low. Then sell and go short looking for a daily lower high leading to weekly consolidation (maybe around AU$7ish - but monitor price action and volume).

Impossible to predict where a weekly higher low will be set, however we do know it is the most likely scenario given the size of retracement (once we officially set the weekly top). As we know to be looking for it, it's a case of monitoring price action closely and waiting for the setup. There are strategies to try and hit the weekly bottom for advanced traders, however most people are best to simply wait for a weekly candle to close above the previous week.

As Hoop says, medium term (trading weekly trends) what we saw today has caused no issues and is expected price action. I would say though that when we get weekly consolidation the weekly higher low (most likely scenario) can be set anywhere between the previous low and around the current price. This is a massive range and is why I do not view buys around current prices as sensible trades unless you are managing risk through other strategies.

[Maxtrade]

Big drop today when Ozzie opened..Continuing behaviour.. NZ bullish at opening Ozzie bearish at opening..Even with the previous rising share price it must be a great set up for the shorters as this behaviour has been happening for a while now.
The last few days has seen a lower than average volume
Anyway the rising trend is interrupted (breather?) at the EMA100 resistance, which isn't a surprise as we must remember the recovering?? ATM (A2M) is still in Bear status (price below the MA200). If ATM is trying to shake off its Bear Status then it is important that the EMA50 support area holds (~NZ$7.00) (~A$6.50)..Interestingly it is also the second support which a rule of thumb disciplined few will have their stops set just below that price.

As I type NZ$7.36 -21c -2.8% with no medium term (default settings) technical damage...only very short term damage.

Disc:Still holding

Thanks Hoop for that makes sense. Maybe will touch on the 10 or 12EMA then bounce up and rally on again from there. Interesting to see and learn.