ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[X-men]

Air loss $440m n share only down 1%

Atm..made profit...shares down 10%

Market is crazy bunch

[Maxtrade]

Yep. Why would you make a takeover offer at $6 when the market will take ATM a lot lower. Wait for the blood-letting to end and then swoop. Investors (gamblers) will be pleased to receive $3.50 to get out when the time comes :-)

$3.50 might be a stretch! Would say there will likely be some solid support if got to low $4's

[Maxtrade]

Yeah how on earth AIR is staying up makes no sense whatsoever!??

[Beagle]

Excellent question. I think AT BEST we're in a very low growth environment for ATM, maybe no growth. No growth fair PE is 11.5 in my book. I would ascribe a PE of no more than 18 to a low growth company.
These are the metrics I use and have worked extremely well for me over many, many years.

Maybe then can do 20 cps in earnings in FY22, maybe not. Choose whatever PE you think is right but I think a forward PE of 30 in the current environment with all known information, trends and risks is absolutely nuts !

Ex growth but with no yield support - so put ATM on a PER of 15 times (being generous here) on its F22 forecast and see what you get.

Ouch!

Funny you pick that, that's right in the middle of the range I suggested at exactly the same time. If they can do 20 cents eps in FY22 and we use a PE of 15 that's only $3
I think the shorters are going to really get stuck into this.

[Maxtrade]

Excellent question. I think AT BEST we're in a very low growth environment for ATM, maybe no growth. No growth fair PE is 11.5 in my book. I would ascribe a PE of no more than 18 to a low growth company.
These are the metrics I use and have worked extremely well for me over many, many years.

Maybe then can do 20 cps in earnings in FY22, maybe not. Choose whatever PE you think is right but I think a forward PE of 30 in the current environment with all known information, trends and risks is absolutely nuts !

So with PE 11- 15, where would you expect SP should respectively be now then Beagle and Balance?

[Motley Crew]

Funny you pick that, that's right in the middle of the range I suggested at exactly the same time. If they can do 20 cents eps in FY22 and we use a PE of 15 that's only $3
I think the shorters are going to really get stuck into this.

And the $3.50 takeover price looks good :-) :-)

[Master98]

looks like MVM is a black hole, loss maker, expect back to positive EBITDA FY25, they buy this plant just want to maintain good relationship with china partner.

[alokdhir]

Yeah how on earth AIR is staying up makes no sense whatsoever!??

AIR has Govt of NZ behind them ...they are an essential service for an island nation ...profits are secondary

ATM has Mr B after them ...so tanked 14% today ...lol

[alokdhir]

OZ time coming local punters loosing conviction to sell ATM

[Beagle]

AIR has Govt of NZ behind them ...they are an essential service for an island nation ...profits are secondary

ATM has Mr B after them ...so tanked 14% today ...lol

LOL The shorters will be the ones after them with comments like this in the annual report
In FY22, the Company expects the value of the overall infant
nutrition market to decrease due to the lower number of
births (during the year, and also as a result of the year prior),
an increase in competitive intensity and promotional activity
impacting average pricing, partially offset by a continuation
of the usage penetration and premiumisation trend.
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In China label infant nutrition, the Company is expecting
to grow sales in FY22, as well as gain moderate share,
albeit in a weaker market overall. The focus is on acquiring
new users and expanding distribution. Inventory levels are
reducing, and product freshness is improving. In 1Q22, the
Company is continuing to reduce distributor inventory levels
which will impact sales. This is expected to result in a stronger
2H22 compared to 1H22
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In English label infant nutrition, with the category
under pressure and the challenges experienced by a2MC in
FY21, the Company is targeting sales stabilisation in FY22
but a wide range of outcomes is possible. The COVID-19
impacts on the daigou/reseller channel and associated
impact on CBEC for English label products are expected to
be prolonged.
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Very sobering stuff.