ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[flyinglizard]

I spent a couple of hours on reading those reports released this morning. The worst timing is not coming yet. Business update in Q1 22 should be the worst, if the below factors are following the logic.

- ATM still have aging inventory not written off for China Label, and will continue through 1Q22. We do not know what amount of this.

- Flat market share in China market, due to domestic brands taking more market shares

- They still cannot complete the market strategy review this time. more than one year already we are in Covid trading environment.

- They project adverse foreign currency movements which is still on the way.

What happened in China during Q1 22?

- Flooding for several provinces since July. Sales Disruption, freight problem

- Some cities are still in lockdown status (Delta) in Aug. Sales Disruption, freight problem ?

- Sumner (June - Aug), not good for stock piling when the temperature is around 35- 40 degree. Babies do not drink much warm infant milk during the summer, compared with the winter, that is human nature.


Nestle has its own A2 IF range, why need to takeover A2? High SP and noise news good for takeover? Particularly from broker's mouth.

https://www.nutraingredients-asia.co...other-and-baby

[alokdhir]

LOL The shorters will be the ones after them with comments like this in the annual report
In FY22, the Company expects the value of the overall infant
nutrition market to decrease due to the lower number of
births (during the year, and also as a result of the year prior),
an increase in competitive intensity and promotional activity
impacting average pricing, partially offset by a continuation
of the usage penetration and premiumisation trend.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
In China label infant nutrition, the Company is expecting
to grow sales in FY22, as well as gain moderate share,
albeit in a weaker market overall. The focus is on acquiring
new users and expanding distribution. Inventory levels are
reducing, and product freshness is improving. In 1Q22, the
Company is continuing to reduce distributor inventory levels
which will impact sales. This is expected to result in a stronger
2H22 compared to 1H22
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In English label infant nutrition, with the category
under pressure and the challenges experienced by a2MC in
FY21, the Company is targeting sales stabilisation in FY22
but a wide range of outcomes is possible. The COVID-19
impacts on the daigou/reseller channel and associated
impact on CBEC for English label products are expected to
be prolonged.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Very sobering stuff.

I know ...U r right about results ...but like u said for ZEL ..." Where there is smoke ...there is fire too " So maybe signs of that fire keeping shorts at bay .

Also u r a seasoned markets player ...U know markets look at least 6 months ahead and normally stock bottoms much before business bottoms ...so maybe ATM bottomed last June around 5.40 ...

DISC: Very small position taken today morning for entertainment purposes only ...after all stuck inside ...Lockdown fatigue

[Hoop]

so true - 12noon going to be interesting...

ATM on NZX usually positive, then gets hammered by ASX on opening.

Yes 12 noon will be very interesting
I have noticed recently a change of behaviour..Short term charts is showing a change in oscillation between NZX opening and ASX opening times..Recently ATM has flipped and has been more pessimistic than the A2M..Why? I don't know, but a feeling maybe the Shorters got burned and decreased their activity..They did have a great time for a long while consistently seeing High NZX low ASX scenario, but like all things change happens as nothing lasts forever..

So today would be the ideal day to see a change back in behaviour (another flip)?? We will find out after ASX opening when the upset A2M market stops squirming and the dust settles..

Taking a (wishful) optimistic view with the upset NZX market ATM did not fall below it's major support level (NZ$~6.10) and still well above it's primary support (bottom) of NZ$~5.40..
The 3 month secondary up trending line is still intact... If there is no behavioural flip (or a very brief one) today I will take it as an optimistic sign.

Conclusion:..no major technical damage..(yet)
Chart will follow
Disc: still have a small holding

[see weed]

Aussi opened early today? Sorry was looking at ATM NZ depth

[Balance]

Aussi opened early today? Sorry was looking at ATM NZ depth

Only buyers today will be short covering.

Tomorrow is when sp is going to get another big leg down imo after brokers and analysts do their downgrades and recommendations.

[Balance]

Yes 12 noon will be very interesting
I have noticed recently a change of behaviour..Short term charts is showing a change in oscillation between NZX opening and ASX opening times..Recently ATM has flipped and has been more pessimistic than the A2M..Why? I don't know, but a feeling maybe the Shorters got burned and decreased their activity..They did have a great time for a long while consistently seeing High NZX low ASX scenario, but like all things change happens as nothing lasts forever..

So today would be the ideal day to see a change back in behaviour (another flip)?? We will find out after ASX opening when the upset A2M market stops squirming and the dust settles..

Taking a (wishful) optimistic view with the upset NZX market ATM did not fall below it's major support level (NZ$~6.10) and still well above it's primary support (bottom) of NZ$~5.40..
The 3 month secondary up trending line is still intact... If there is no behavioural flip (or a very brief one) today I will take it as an optimistic sign.

Conclusion:..no major technical damage..(yet)
Chart will follow
Disc: still have a small holding

What happened to the positive indicators (golden cross etc etc) lighting up on the TA front according to some of the posters?

What a great trading stock for those who use TA but then get caught by yet another disappointing ATM announcement?

[Biscuit]

......DISC: Very small position taken today morning for entertainment purposes only ...after all stuck inside ...Lockdown fatigue

I got enough entertainment from this one last year. Decided to stick to investing in companies that actually know what they are doing.

[flyinglizard]

The worst part is they still do not know what they are doing and going to do. No strategy review released yet as promised and no share purchase back plan. only has rumor.

[alokdhir]

The worst part is they still do not know what they are doing and going to do. No strategy review released yet as promised and no share purchase back plan. only has rumor.

Maybe dont want to waste good money to buy their worthless shares ...lol

[alokdhir]

I got enough entertainment from this one last year. Decided to stick to investing in companies that actually know what they are doing.

Got out with my pants intact ...just in time and had some fun too ...