ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[dobby41]

People really should learn some basics about technical analysis. A breakdown through the 200 day moving average occurred at just on $18. Basic TA would have got people out at about 3 time's the current price and kept them out and avoided what for some people has been a life changing loss.

Getting in and out when it breaks up or down through the 200 day support line, (AKA following long term price momentum) has served investors extremely well with ATM over many many years.

A quick question if I may - without derailing the thread.
If the 200 day MA was say $18 and the price hit $17.90 today then bounced back to $18.05 tomorrow is that a trigger?
I suppose the question I am asking is how solid below the MA should the share price be or stay for a trigger?

[alokdhir]

FPH is my new A2 currently, I understand it intimately and see it as being in the right place at the right time. A2 may very well have its time in the sun again but now is not that time.

I agree with u fully and surprisingly FPH is my biggest over weight long term holding at the moment with 29% weightage as I reduced 4% of MFT to add to FPH ...I am getting ready over the next 2-3 years to reap the rewards .

IMHO FPH will help us recoup all your ATM looses in a safe way ...as its the safest of the bluechip of NZX

PS : ATM at present is only good bet from merger and acquisition point of view ...as usually those people like VCs have longer term on horizon

[couta1]

I agree with u fully and surprisingly FPH is my biggest over weight long term holding at the moment with 29% weightage as I reduced 4% of MFT to add to FPH ...I am getting ready over the next 2-3 years to reap the rewards .

IMHO FPH will help us recoup all your ATM looses in a safe way ...as its the safest of the bluechip of NZX

FPH makes up 45% of my portfolio currently as does PAZ so I'm still going big or going home. Lol

[alokdhir]

FPH makes up 45% of my portfolio currently as does PAZ so I'm still going big or going home. Lol

I dont know about PAZ but FPH wont let u go Home ...IMHO ...Surely I am seeing good prospects there .

But ATM is our thread ....so get on with it .

[Sideshow Bob]

a2 Milk Company slump: Firm banks on offline and local e-commerce retail to recoup CBEC losses in China

01-Sep-2021 By Tingmin Koe
The a2 Milk Company is banking on offline and local e-commerce retail in China to make up for its losses in daigou and cross-border e-commerce due to COVID-19, after seeing overall revenues slump by 30 per cent and profits by 79 per cent.
HTTPS://WWW.NUTRAINGREDIENTS-ASIA.COM/ARTICLE/2021/09/01/A2-MILK-COMPANY-SLUMP-FIRM-BANKS-ON-OFFLINE-AND-LOCAL-E-COMMERCE-RETAIL-TO-RECOUP-CBEC-LOSSES-IN-CHINA
a2 Milk Company slump: Firm banks on offline and local e-commerce retail to recoup CBEC losses in China

[RGR367]

Based on my sell transactions today, I think FOMO is what keeping ATM high at the moment.

To somehow keep and materialize some paper profits on this stock, I reluctantly sold a bundle (<20K shares) today. It would normally take a single or at most 2 buy transactions to complete my trade but this one took more than 40 sold transactions to complete, with as low as 4 shares in a transaction and the highest transaction just over 2k shares.
I will think twice now in selling more with today's observation.


disc: I was willing of letting this stock play to its lowest point if only Couta had not surrendered his conviction of holding on Paper profit is OPM and one should be willing to let it evaporate if properly convicted to the stock.

[couta1]

Based on my sell transactions today, I think FOMO is what keeping ATM high at the moment.

To somehow keep and materialize some paper profits on this stock, I reluctantly sold a bundle (<20K shares) today. It would normally take a single or at most 2 buy transactions to complete my trade but this one took more than 40 sold transactions to complete, with as low as 4 shares in a transaction and the highest transaction just over 2k shares.
I will think twice now in selling more with today's observation.


disc: I was willing of letting this stock play to its lowest point if only Couta had not surrendered his conviction of holding on Paper profit is OPM and one should be willing to let it evaporate if properly convicted to the stock.

Lol I let it evaporate alright until it had become a cataclysmic meltdown of the highest order equal to a polar cap melting.

[aperitif]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...9-4-1028114374

CD8F573D-19DF-4EA5-A76C-517CBFCBE340.jpg

[Ferg]

Something I take issue with is the criticism of the systems (not) used to track inventory in the daigou channel. Once a business has sold something, especially FMCG, it is extremely rare to track the movements of that inventory within a third party organisation. The level to which some posters here expect ATM to track inventory would necessitate installing something like a GPS tracker onto every can. Dramatic example aside, the level of inventory tracking expected by some here is beyond reasonable and, at the risk of being blunt, naïve to actual business practices.

Sellers of FMCGs into wholesalers should (must!) have a close relationship with them. This would give a general sense of the age of the stock, checking the wholesaler is not over or under ordering, the product is fairly positioned/promoted and ensuring older stock is sold first etc. That is dependant on reps servicing such clients. But those function are not, and cannot be, done using any sort of ERP system, unless there is some sort of integration between systems of the two businesses. Such a goal would remove a % of the role of the rep but carries the risk of unintended consequences and a soul-less business relationship. Automation of ordering was the goal many years ago but, in my experience, is still a pipe dream for many organisations. If it were done it is expensive to implement but I can honestly say there is not a huge appetite for such closely integrated systems. Businesses generally like their independence and lack of transparency to others.

That said, there were issues with the amount of stock in the daigou channel and we all know why that happened. The closure of the borders impacted daigou trade resulting in an over-stock situation within that channel. Their sales obviously collapsed and they were left carrying excess inventory. That inventory is now classified as excess, but it wasn't at the time it was ordered. No ERP system would have prevented that from happening.

The positive from this is that COVID has highlighted a blind spot for ATM, and I fully expect they will do what they can to a) remedy the situation and b) come out of this a better business.

I would happily stand corrected if someone has any facts on actual inventory tracking at ATM within wholesalers/daigou, as opposed to conjecture and supposition. I freely admit I do not know the extent of the relationship between ATM and wholesalers/daigous; I can only share what I have seen at other FMCG companies.

[Joshuatree]

Great thought.A2 Energy drink "It gives you Fins"," Have a shot of a2xtra milky way,it brings stars to your eyes"
Feed a2 cows with coffee grinds ,hey presto Bovine caffeine dairy queen's,udder is best ,it gives you a zing.