ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[rheesj7]

When registering, having difficulty getting the site to accept an NZ address. Has anyone else had the same issue?

Put your address number only on the address 1 then put rest of your address on the address 2.

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...sent-thousands

This is the interesting bit :

"We allege that A2 boosted sales in FY20 by pushing what's called English-label [infant] formula tins through the cross-border e-commerce channel [into China] and as a result of that, the daigou channel, which is an important sales channel for A2 ... weren't able to achieve the margin on the product when it was sold to their end-consumers in China ... because there was a flood of stock in the market."

[Beat the Bank]

When registering, having difficulty getting the site to accept an NZ address. Has anyone else had the same issue?

Yes. I had this problem too. I had a flash back memory about leaving the "state" box empty, and added NZ or NZL to the state question, and it works. Then it asked for AU$ and I just ignored that and did NZ$. Lastly, after that registration phase, it then sets in progress more paperwork to sign which it says is optional, as indeed the whole thing appears to be. I hesitated and left it at the registration stage.
My thoughts go to Couta1 and Poet for your large losses. For some a $10,000 investment is huge and for others it is $1 mill. Same applies to losses.
I would like to see the management held to account for their actions to set an reminder for other managers.

[Poet]

I just listened to the conference call from the other day.

Certainly, as is to be expected, a lot of attempted butt-covering going on by the board and management

"we did caveat our forecasts when we made them" etc etc

Putting that aside though, IMO the analyst from Bank of America asked the most pertinent question of Jeff B (around the 22 minute mark)

The question was along the lines of

"how can we be sure that the information systems that ATM has in place are appropriate and timely given that we analysts, and ATM itself, have now been blindsided with two sudden and unexpected profit downgrades in the space of just a couple of months"

Babbage's reply was along the lines of

"yes, we believe that our information systems are timely and appropriate, if we had known any extra information at the time of our AGM (which was late November) we would have revised our guidance then"

After a bit more butt-covering he went on to state

"I am looking at the finalised sales numbers to the end of November (ie as at the time of this conference call) and I can tell you they are not materially different to what we were forecasting when we issued our guidance and I can categorically tell you that EBITDA numbers are not below what we were forecasting. December was always going to be a big month and it became clear last week that December wouldn't meet expectations"

So, it would appear, to me at least, that to go from a first half revenue projection of 725-775m down to $670m given that everything was rosy up until the end of November must mean that December sales have absolutely collapsed (or is there another way to look at this)

I personally think that these people are engaging in magical thinking, and just continually pushing out the miracle recovery that is just on the horizon - "didn't happen in December, not to worry, we will just assume it will happen in the second half year"

Be very afraid people

Discl - out yesterday

At the risk of quoting myself - the above post from 22 December last year.

I think that this type of analysis will be what the lawyers will use to nail the ATM board. Basically the board and management forecasts and statements were not only egregious examples of magical/fantasy thinking but, on the face of it, they weren't even consistent with one another from one week to the next as per my example above.

Will be interesting to watch this play out

[see weed]

I wouldn't pick a legal fight with her BUT only 9 years commercial experience and no really massive settlements. Hmmm Good luck folks.

See weed - The problem with massive trading losses carried forward is they only have any real value if one has the skills to beat the market with one's trading strategy going forward. I reckon its a healthy thing for everyone at least once a year to stand back and have a really good honest stocktake about their investment strategies and methodologies and ask themselves is what I am doing really working ? Am I beating the market and if not would I be better off handing some or all of my investments over to professional fund managers or simply buying ETF's instead ?

I regularly do this. If I find I am not beating the market, (hasn't happened yet), for more than 2 years in a row I'll be handing everything over to be managed professionally and go fishing instead.

No, I am not done yet. Sold my last lot of a2 on 17/5/21 for $105,000 profit. That falls out of the time frame of 19/8/20 to 7/5/21 period. Am already up $18,000 plus on WHS in last few weeks, plus $12,000 on CEN, but will not mention ZEL which is up $10,000 plus at the moment, don't know what is going to happen there. Forgot to mention $50,000 divs since 1/3/21. No, I am not going to let a2 and shorters scare me off.

[bull....]

people should always wonder why ? a stock has a large short interest and dig deeper.

[Maxtrade]

people should always wonder why ? a stock has a large short interest and dig deeper.

Surprised to not see the SP drop steadily today. Got to have nerves of steel to hold at this stage. Bottom likely to drop out on every bit of negative news as law suit progresses. ATM management really dug a grave for it's loyal shareholders and deceived the market entirely. Highly likely going to really bite them back now. Too obvious, too public, it's just a matter of how badly they will be stung.

The big boys will know this and be lurking at the bottom factoring in a huge payout which may then lead to a buy out option but at much lower levels, even lower than the $3/$3.50 fundamental based SP previously stated in this thread.
SP currently being propped up while slowly but steadily reducing portfolios, followed by large shorts, SP surely will plummet over this next month as lawsuit gains motion. Unfortunately the company brought it upon itself. Sad, especially for a golden child NZ company. Shows the importance of transparency and solid open management.

Best of luck to the optimists. The risks are too high for me, I'm out.

[Balance]

Wow, 5 whole days without a single posting on this previous market darling and superstar!

So what are the brokers saying?

Has the A2 Milk share price found a bottom yet?

Unfortunately for shareholders, one leading broker doesn’t appear to believe the A2 Milk share price has found its bottom just yet.

A note out of Credit Suisse from last week reveals that its analysts have retained their underperform rating and $5.50 price target on the company’s shares.

Based on the current A2 Milk share price, this implies potential downside of 7% over the next 12 months.

What did the broker say?

According to a note from Credit Suisse, the broker highlights that infant formula prices stabilised in China in September.

It also notes that marketing activity is increasing and chat groups have been formed with daigou shoppers ahead of the major Singles Day retail sales event next month.

However, this isn’t enough for the broker to change its rating. It has previously voiced its concerns over China’s slowing birth rate and A2 Milk’s loss of market share in stage 1 infant formula. Credit Suisse fears that the latter could act as a drag on its Stage 2 and Stage 3 product sales as this cohort ages.

Is anyone positive?

One broker that remains positive on the A2 Milk share price is Citi. It recently put a buy rating and $7.20 price target on the company’s shares.

However, it has warned that there could be more bad news coming at its investor event later this month. This could include lower than expected margins.

The only potential benefit here is that that broker suspects that any weakness in A2 Milk’s shares could be greeted with a takeover offer.

Time will tell which broker makes the right call.

[Baa_Baa]

Huge drop in Short positions last week.

[couta1]

Huge drop in Short positions last week.

That 4% line is the benchmark, perhaps they don't see enough downside from here to make it worthwhile staying in after making huge profits over the last year, i haven't held any for over a month now(First time in 8 yrs in that situation) and I have no intention of trying to make any losses back from this hot potato.