ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[mattwanz]

Perhaps additional advertising could benefit the whole milk category, not just the brand being advertised...could be good

[kizame]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

BUT, I think you are missing the main advantage A2 have, in that most, or a big percentage of the people that are likely to buy A2 are ones whom either don't consume A1 milk at the moment and the others who have digestive problems also from drinking or eating dairy with A1,this is a market coca cola won't be accessing.

[NT001]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

You make a good point Harrie, but I agree with those who have pointed out the key difference between Fairlife Coke-milk and A2 that should prevent A2's US launch being too damaged.

Nevertheless, it could be an interesting tussle.

Fairlife is targeted at "most punters", whereas A2 is not - it's targeted specifically at those who are conscious of the A1 beta-casein issue or the milk intolerance issue, either because of a2MC's advertising or because of something they've read somewhere.

Fairlife says "we're rejigging ordinary milk into something even healthier", while a2MC will be saying: "our milk is for those who think they're milk-intolerant or have medical issues (eg autism) that may be linked to A1". BloombergBusiness notes that US consumers tend to react against high-priced milk, which Fairlife is and claims to be, whereas they are happy to pay more for milk that has specific medical or health benefits, such as almond milk (and A2).

Fairlife will push the fact that the lactose has been removed from its milk, which will appeal to some who are lactose intolerant. A2 Milk does not claim to solve the problem of lactose intolerance. Fairlife may appeal to some of those targeted by a2MC as having digestive problems with A1, but its milks contain boosted amounts of milk protein, which could actually create problems for consumers who experience digestive problems arising from A1 protein.

Industry commentators in the US have already been somewhat skeptical about Fairlife milk. As one said, "Coca-Cola's success with Fairlife shouldn't be taken as inevitable yet. Consumers will have to decide if they're comfortable with the assertion that the beverage is actually milk, versus a recombined fluid from filtrated constituents of cow's milk."

I'm also wondering if there will be debate about Fairlife's advertising claims. For example, on its website it gives details of the contents of its "whole" milk showing that the lactose and some sugars have in fact been removed. How can it be honestly described as "whole" milk? At the end of its analysis it says the product "contains milk". It also contains lactase enzyme to assist digestion, and added vitamins A and D.

The milk-supplying partner in the Coca-Cola partnership is a major US dairy cooperative, Select Milk Producers Inc, which has had Fairlife on the market for some time already in limited quantities. A few weeks ago Select Milk announced a merger with another co-op, Continental Dairy Products Inc, continuing to operate as Select Milk Producers Inc. Before the merger, Select consisted of 61 farms with approximately 136,000 milking cows (average 2,200 cows per farm) producing about 4.3 billion pounds of milk per year for local cheese plants and Class I milk plants in New Mexico and Texas. Continental consisted of 36 dairy farms with approximately 76,000 milking cows (averaging 2,100 cows) producing about 2 billion pounds of milk per year in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. A total of 200,000 milking cows is not huge in the USA. It'll be interesting to see how many other farms Coke signs up - it'll need a lot more.

[MAC]

a2mc have been licensing in the US for years so there is a little to build on already, Hyvee and all that.

But, absolutely no one tell SeeWeed that you can already buy flavoured a2 milk in the US, a2 cheese, and a2 whey protein too for that matter

A six pack of a2 flavoured milk retails, hope a2MC are collecting their royalties, for US$42.86.

I reckon actually that mainstream retailing though could all take off more readily in the US than in the UK, the US market esp the West Coast just seem more predisposed to such propositions.

https://differentkindofliving.wordpr...eyond-organic/

https://gbw.my90forlife.com/shop/ind...hy%20Beverages

[Harrie]

All of us on this site understand the health benefits available from a1 free milk or conversely potential downsides of the a1 protein. Yes, there are not that many consumers that get into the detail about the science of it and anyway ATM need to be really careful about the claims they make about the benefits of a2 milk. This extends to not being able to "rubbish" its opposition on the claims it makes. Fairlife claims that it is natural, has less sugar more protein and calcium...thats good enough I would have thought for most people to buy without worrying about beta caseins etc, even though as NT points out, more a1 protein potentially exasabates heath downsides.
The point I was trying to flesh out was will ATM need to spend more resourse trying to promote what it stands for in a clear and unambiguous way given its advertising constraints, to the uninitiated, which would probably account for 98% of potential consumers.
One way possibly is to take Coka Cola on about using the term "natural"...yeah right. Likely to get a short story on sex and travel and their lawyers card?

[axe]

That's interesting, axe, what area are you in? Countdown is of course the only supermarket chain that carries A2, and we used to find the same in the Wellington region - no A2 available. But we gave the management a gee-up at seven Countdown supermarkets here (Petone, Newtown, Johnsonville x2, Kilbirnie, Karori and Crofton Downs) to make sure they're ordering enough, and now encounter little problem. And we have no issues with use-by date, as it usually has at least a week before expiry. If there's no A2 on the shelf it's usually because of fast turnover, and when we inquire of the store-room staff they immediately bring out another box.

Part of the problem, I think, is that A2 is packed in sealed cartons rather than open crates. It's a bit of an effort to break the cartons open and unload them. If it was in crates like most other milk, the stores could leave them out in the open for customers to just help themselves, and I'm sure they'd sell more. Cartons are much more space-efficient for long-distance cartage and probably for temperature control, but they make extra work for Countdown staff. a2MC has little control over the sole supplier (Fresha Vallery, in Northland) but there have been hints that it might become more active - it has emphasised that the licence to Fresha Valley is non-exclusive. NZ will never be a huge profit centre for a2MC, but it should be doing alot better and the company is aware it should be doing better in the country where its shares are registered.

On the sunny Kapiti Coast.

Countdown paraparaumu - shelves nearly always empty.
New world paraparaumu - not regularly there but mostly empty.
New World waikanae - nearly always empty.

Does anyone know how the details on the arrangement with fresha valley? Do they take a cut for each bottle sold? Or is it commercially sensitive?


Maybe if I buy some A2 shares I will start asking the supermarket to let me into the coldstore to top up the shelves with A2 when I am at the shops

[MAC]

a2mc reported a grand total of $126k from New Zealand operations at FY14, $247k the year before at FY13.

“The New Zealand segment receives income from milk and infant formula sales, and royalty, licence fee and management fee income”.

So, the answer is they receive five eights of bugger all from Fresha Valley, a grand total of 0.11% of all revenues at FY14.

The revenues received probably only just cover the salary and overhead for a contract administrator to oversee the Fresha Valley licensing contract.

But, if nothing else, it provides some Kiwi’s at least with a2 milk, and of course an absolutely obsessive distraction for us here on ST forum away from the real business of global growth.

ATMSegmentRevenue.jpg

[see weed]

I reckon that fairlife could create a bit of a problem in the USA for ATM, at the very time that ATM is trying to establish a market difference. Very unfortunate timing. Expect to see more aussy profit money going into trying to promote the real natural product and the differences to fairlife.
Coca Cola has a massive marketing machine and the CEO looks like he is expecting their product to "rain money" and will therefore be spending millions on its promotion.
When you advertise less sugar, more calcium, more protein freshness, and "natural", is the average american punter really going to worry about the type of beta casein existant in the milk?
Most punters will look at the product and buy the spin on the basis that "its got to be good for you" rather than any of the detail behind the spin.
Just throwing that out there for comment.

a2 drinkers like myself will never drink coca cola a1 milk. As the a2 story comes to light in USA, more and more people will start to buy a2 milk. Coca Cola, like Fontera will not like to bring the subject up about a2 too often, it would draw to much attention to a2. What might happen is Coca Cola could make a $3 or $4 take over bid for ATM down the track sometime.

[Harrie]

I know and I appreciate that you are a great advocate of a2 see weed, but unfortunately you and other a2 followers represent only a tiny portion of the educated market. My point is that ATM have headwinds with marketing and competition constraints in the USA and with the introduction of Fairlife more competition IMO with the marketing spin likely to come from those quarters. Naturally those who are more health conscious and are interested enough to look into it more deeply will clue on straight away. Unfortunately at the moment they are by far the minority, hence the tricky marketing and promotion job for ATM.

[xafalcon]

All of us on this site understand the health benefits available from a1 free milk or conversely potential downsides of the a1 protein.

Not everyone

I have worked in NZ dairy industry over 25 years in techincal/scientific roles. From what I get out of research papers on this, the jury is still out. Nope, re-phrase that. The jury hasn't even been selected yet. Like most research, outcomes are generally dictated by what the funder wants confirmed. Sad, but true. Science has been for sale for the past 20 years.

My take from what I have read and know from my time in the industry is that A2 milk (the product, not the company) is a marketing angle, pure and simple. Exactly the same as "permeate free" milk - considered by many Aussies as superior to milk with permeate, but they don't really know what permeate is, where it comes from or what it's purpose in the milk really is. Exactly the same as goat milk - considered by some to be lower allergen (an immune system reaction to a protein) than cows milk, but exactly the same proteins are present as cows milk, just in different proportions to cow milk. Exactly the same as Stolle hyper-immune milk, inject the cows with human pathogens, they produce antibodies which pass into the milk, humans drink the milk and believe they get improved immunity. Night milk, which may have elevated levels of serotonin and help people sleep. The list goes on

If A2 milk really was the best milk, with robust proof to support the claimed benefits, livestock improvements would have a catalog weighted in favour of these genetics. Fonterra would be actively guiding their farmers into systematic animal breeding changes to transition their milk protein profile. But neither company has bought into the idea because the weight of science does not support this. It is nothing to do with Fonterra being mainly A1 and having to support this milk variant - virtually all of the worlds bovine milk is A1. You can guarantee that if there was a financial benefit for Fonterra suppliers (or other major dairy company suppliers) providing A2 milk, it would be pursued vigorously.

If consumers choose to use A2 milk, and they feel they get a benefit from it, power to them. Same for the consumers of the other examples I listed above. But they are all niche products that can't strongly promote the perceived benefits of their respective products because the evidence just isn't robust. And niche products can easily get crouded out by competition with deeper pockets, changed consumer perceptions, new scientific evidence, or even an unrelated product defect.

I am not working with/for Fonterra. I have used them as an example because they are driven by commercial returns and have a very large research division actively searching for new and innovative products to improve long term returns to their shareholders.