ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bull....]

58c was big support, it has failed now so have 45c as a target for mthly, quarterly

they need to prove there multi market strategy will work? sceptical considering they havnt been able to replicate it in uk yet and now they want to take it to china and the us? go figure hope im proved wrong time will tell

[MAC]

Crikey give them more than five minutes would ya!

Yes, the delays in the UK and China were one off events, their UK JV partner being bought out and Chinese regulatory changes. New markets have opened up in Asia as planned, fresh milk and UHT and we should just start to see initial revenues from those this pending report.

Guidance: “Whilst revenue growth in China and the UK are presently well behind original plan, this shortfall should be compensated by sales of infant formula in Australia and other products in both Australia and Asia”

[Snoopy]

Yes, the delays in the UK and China were one off events, their UK JV partner being bought out and Chinese regulatory changes. New markets have opened up in Asia as planned, fresh milk and UHT and we should just start to see initial revenues from those this pending report.

Guidance: “Whilst revenue growth in China and the UK are presently well behind original plan, this shortfall should be compensated by sales of infant formula in Australia and other products in both Australia and Asia”

That is a very rose tinted way of lookiing at things. As an outsider, it looks to me like the success in Australia was the one off event. If Australia is only worth 15c of the current share price, there is an enormous amount of blue sky valuation built into a share price of 54c.

Snoopys easy valuation guide on ATM:

Share price begins with 2 => undervalued (Snoopy a buyer)
Share price begins with 3 => fairly valued
Share price begins with 4 => overvalued
Share price begins with 5 => grossly overvalued

SNOOPY

[winner69]

That is a very rose tinted way of lookiing at things. As an outsider, it looks to me like the success in Australia was the one off event. If Australia is only worth 15c of the current share price, there is an enormous amount of blue sky valuation built into a share price of 54c.

Snoopys easy valuation guide on ATM:

Share price begins with 2 => undervalued (Snoopy a buyer)
Share price begins with 3 => fairly valued
Share price begins with 4 => overvalued
Share price begins with 5 => grossly overvalued

SNOOPY

What was it when it was just under a $1?

[see weed]

Stuff this , I'm out to Piha for a wave. If sp still low next week will buy more. Have a good weekend . (Drink more a2 )

[Harrie]

Its certainly not overvalued using the projected forward sales number to valuation. Market cap now at around $356 mio and sales projection around $156 mio so trading way less than 3 times sales. I'm really hoping it gets down to Snoopy's fair valuation number so that I can average down my buy in price.

[winner69]

Its certainly not overvalued using the projected forward sales number to valuation. Market cap now at around $356 mio and sales projection around $156 mio so trading way less than 3 times sales. I'm really hoping it gets down to Snoopy's fair valuation number so that I can average down my buy in price.

Just out of curiosity why do you think 3 times sales is a reasonable valuation metric?

[Harrie]

Seems to be one valuation of the few that looks consistant with other food orientated companies which range from the 2's to the 8's. eg freedom.
p/e's and earnings multiples don't make a lot of sense in growth companies. There is no such thing as fair value in these companies. Fair is based on what we know now, tomorrow is a different story but by then you have missed eh!

[MAC]

Absolutely undervalued according to four analysts with a consensus $0.80 price target, two with buy ratings, two with hold ratings. That’s +48% for those that want it prior to the ASX listing, US entry announcement, and HY report in one month’s time.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=ATM.NZ

Personally I think ATM is one of the most undervalued stocks on the NZX at present. Valued comfortably at DCF $1.10 as far as I’m concerned.

[NT001]

There are two contrasting schools of thought on valuing ATM. Its medium and longer term valuation is obviously somewhat speculative but that's where the real potential lies, and on that basis it would be currently undervalued, probably very much so. But clearly there is also an element of impatience that the immediate profits have been slow in coming - like PEB - and valuations based on short term expectations will inevitably be lower, not only for traders but also for investors with short time horizons.

There's an inevitable contrast between the TA and the FA perspective, very much increased by a lack of understanding by many ATM holders and watchers as to what the A1-A2 thing is really all about and how it is going to become a bigger health issue globally - a really big one. There's already enough science to say with certainty that A1 is a significant factor in diabetes and heart disease as well as autism and milk intolerance etc, but the process of turning indicative findings and epidemiological evidence into absolute proof of causation will be a gradual one. Hence the full potential of ATM will take time to be realised.

I recommend strongly (again) the need to pretty much ignore the so-called "debate" that one reads in the media about the alleged "lack of evidence" about A2, and first read Prof Keith Woodford's book "Devil in the Milk" which has already refuted all the arguments against it. Since his book came out there have been no new valid criticisms of the A2 hypothesis. And what is really significant is that no one from mainstream dairy, which commands huge research resources worldwide, has shot down any of his thesis. The criticisms you see are commercial rhetoric, designed to undermine the A2 hypothesis without producing any scientific refutation of it.

If nothing else, for a useful summary, read Woodford's brief 2010 addendum to the first edition of his 2007 book, available on the web at

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...l-in-the-milk/

That is already several years old and has since been strongly supported by heaps of new research, and not contradicted by any. Prof Woodford follows the research closely and periodically issues updates on it. He gives papers to scientific gatherings where they are subject to challenge but receive virtually none, and covers the A2 issue in occasional articles in his regular Sunday Star Times column, all of which are usually reprinted on his blog at

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...1-and-a2-milk/

A brief but good plain-language article published on his blog site in 2011, albeit also now three years out of date, is at

https://keithwoodford.files.wordpres...e-medicine.pdf

There will be continuing propaganda efforts by mainstream dairy to denigrate A2, but the research by independent groups in many countries is all moving in one direction, demonstrating the medical risks to at least certain categories of consumers of A1 and its digestive by-product BCM7.