ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[MAC]

It’s going to be really interesting this ASX listing, not a capital raising, but AMP have got around 20M shares to offer to Australian investors, it might as well be an ‘IPO’ then by any other name.

For those whom haven’t caught up, AMP have to sell because they got dumped by the Super Fund and are moving from active to passive portfolio management, lucky Australians.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...ve-stance.html

Analyst price targets for ATM presently range up to 92c, and a hypothetical book build would be higher than those price targets.

Should be a fascinating watch to see how competitive it gets for that block of shares, a2mc is a very high profile company in Australia indeed, and a lot of funds are still diversifying away from mining interests.

A2mc are working with Goldman Sachs for the listing, one would presume that AMP are presently working hard behind the scenes with their Australian broker also.

I would not be surprised to see ATM list on the ASX shortly at over 80c actually.

[ziggy415]

It’s going to be really interesting this ASX listing, not a capital raising, but AMP have got around 20M shares to offer to Australian investors, it might as well be an ‘IPO’ then by any other name.

For those whom haven’t caught up, AMP have to sell because they got dumped by the Super Fund and are moving from active to passive portfolio management, lucky Australians.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...ve-stance.html

Analyst price targets for ATM presently range up to 92c, and a hypothetical book build would be higher than those price targets.

Should be a fascinating watch to see how competitive it gets for that block of shares, a2mc is a very high profile company in Australia indeed, and a lot of funds are still diversifying away from mining interests.

A2mc are working with Goldman Sachs for the listing, one would presume that AMP are presently working hard behind the scenes with their Australian broker also.

I would not be surprised to see ATM list on the ASX shortly at over 80c actually.

what with snoopys glass half empty price of 40 cents and macs glass half full price of 80 cents if we take an average it comes out at about 60 cents.....market about right maybe......mac if Amp go to passive what amount of the 20 million shares do they keep as a passive investment and if aussie listing is as high as you expect why dont Amp sell into that

[MAC]

My valuation for ATM is FY15 $1.10 actually,

The only substantive matter that has dropped the SP since March last year has been AMP selling into an illiquid NZX market, ATM is very tightly held.

AMP had 11% of the company when the SP was over 90c last year, they've been selling consistently ever since, down to 2.7% now, and in doing so dropped the SP to where it is now at about 60c.

My feel is that a2mc under pressure from the major shareholders, inc Freedom, have finally decided to remove the overhang and bring in keen Australian fundies to help AMP out through an ASX listing.

Once the AMP overhang is gone, what do you anticipate will happen ?

[ziggy415]

so do you think freedom will look to sell down as well....im a believer in the A1 versus A2 debate so hoping the company does supply better service to nz market,its a bit of a pain haveing to go to different supermarkets to find A2 then only able to buy 2 litres...as for the sp...I started digging the hole at 76 cents and kept digging all the way down to 50 cents so do have a considerable holding so any upside will be appreciated

[MAC]

I'll sell down one day too and take some profits, won't be anytime before the four year strategic plan to FY16 plays out.

I would anticipate that Freedom are content holders also until at least that time given they assisted in the capitalisation of that very strategic plan.

a2mc is a growth stock, many inc myself would be happy to hold until the company becomes cyclical, there's no sign of that at this time.

The US market should break even at FY18, and there's still plenty of growth potential beyond that point.

[Harrie]

Not being negative, but that's a pretty positive spin Mac.
The fact is that AMP have dropped ~17m shares since October 2014. That sort of volume went through in just one day recently.
You would have to say that there are a heap more sellers out there than just AMP. Also it is possible that AMP will not sell all of their remaining shares. Going from active to passive management has nothing to do with growth stocks vs dividend producing stocks. You are either an active manager or a passive one irrespective of whether growth stocks or dividend producing stocks are held in the portfolio, (although passive management is usually related to "following the index"). Active management is all about being tactical. Absolute returns management is something else again.
So AMP is going passive may also include retaining some of the a2mc shares. AMP are obviously not the only sellers by a long way in my calcs!

[MAC]

My calculator says an 11% sell down to 2.97%, from early last year to now, thus far, is around 53M shares sold in a little over a period of around 12 months.

That’s not the entire churn during that time of course, never said it was, it is though a pretty damn big overhang, clearly big enough in a very illiquid market to drop the SP directly and/or by down draft.

Not long to go now though, does anyone know what day is the ASX listing ?

[babymonster]

No news yet.. Asx website has no information either. If its a new listing with another name, it should take a bit more time I guess.

[blobbles]

I think I remember reading somewhere it can take up to 6 weeks from ASX listing application. So up to 6 weeks from 25th February... mid to late March is my guess, seems like it shouldn't be that difficult for a company that is already listed under a fairly similar legal environment.

[blobbles]

Ahhh yes, the big dump at the end of the day. So very predictable. If only there was a way to make money off it?

The pattern is: See where it trades for almost the entire day. Wait for the buyers to build up to that level, take out all buyers to 1c below.