ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

**Snoopy** · 30-03-2015, 03:43 PM

Originally Posted by Harrie

If the aussy insto's <snip> thought that a2 was a goer when it listed on the ASX would be wanting to buy now on the NZX at $0.49 wouldn't they?

Because Aussie institutions may have a mandate that only allows them to purchase ASX listed shares?

SNOOPY

**Snoopy** · 30-03-2015, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by snapiti

the current depressed share price would indicate the market is very dubious of ATM abilities to replicate it's Aussie success in the UK and Europe.

Actually I see ATM's market position as reflected in the share price in a completely contrary way. The reason that the A2 share price is so ridiculously high (remember you are paying 50c for only just over 1c in assets), is because success in the UK market is already assumed and built into the ATM share price at 50c. If they succeed in the UK, that will put a floor under the share price near current levels. If not, you can expect the share price to retreat from here.

however from the number of stores that A2 has already got a foot in the door in the UK I would suggest that the hard part has already been achieved and given a good marketing campaign all shareholders will be very happy with the results in 12 months or so.
On that basis I am seriously considering adding some more, at these levels, to my portfolio.

I think it is more pertinent as to whether the UK market can generate enough cash for further expansion in the UK AND sufficient cash for ATM to expand in the US. If not you can expect a cash issue or placement soon at 40c. And that share price level is where the head share price will gravitate to as well.

Buying in now in anticiaption of success in the UK will see you retain your capital if you are right and lose money if you are wrong. And such a trade off makes for an awful investment proposition!

SNOOPY

**Nasi Goreng** · 30-03-2015, 04:26 PM

If ATM are successful in UK, would the market then not start to get even more optimistic and then price in growth for other markets? If that is the case, then I would see further upside to the share price rather than that being the price ceiling.

**Harrie** · 30-03-2015, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by Snoopy

Because Aussie institutions may have a mandate that only allows them to purchase ASX listed shares?

SNOOPY

I think "may" is the operative word snoopy. Not having that restriction is more realistic. No institution would want to operate under that mandate voluntarily and ASIC would be ill advised to impose one.

**see weed** · 30-03-2015, 05:06 PM

4.43pm. nzx listing rule. ASB make you wait 20 minutes before you can read it

**NT001** · 30-03-2015, 05:25 PM

The SP of Synlait, which manufactrures product for a2MC, slipped sharply today after the halfyear result came out.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/210530.pdf

But the last paragraph is interesting in terms of ATM (which is not mentioned specifically)

**JohnnyTheHorse** · 30-03-2015, 07:18 PM

No idea why ATM didn't announce to the NZX that the ASX listing had been approved. I guess we can expect a flurry of announcements tomorrow morning as they announce the ASX listing and officially announce the changes in the board. The options being issued at 63 cents shows some real confidence.

Tomorrow will be a very telling day. Both due to the ASX listing and because of the last day of the financial year. If we see some big volume I suspect she'll be all go. If not, business as usual for awhile.