ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[biker]

I’m not really interested in the short term to be honest Harrie as you know.

I’ve always held that the Californian market may well offer great potential, and this is the first advice we have had from a2MC offering a prospective market size, greater than Australia, excellent.

Certainly that paints the picture behind all the market research the company has done and provides some whom may otherwise have thought that the US market might just be a small nice to have on top of the Australian business with a whole new perspective.

Certainly plugging those prospective revenues and forward free cashflows into ones DCF will make every shareholder smile.

I would like to get a bit more from the company, I think though it’s probably around a five year plan to get to those estimated US revenue levels, first two years to break even, another three years of revenue growth, all good.

But for now it’s satisfying just to hear that the launch has gone well, the US supermarkets are flocking to the four products on offer, and the company is confident enough from the first two months of market feedback to make a bold forward prediction.

All good, up and away in the US.

And on that note (not because of that note) I've topped up at A 48.5c

[Harrie]

Apart from my comments on short term SP movements, I agree with you 100% about the long term MAC. The thing that has got me a little excited is Babbage, a man who says very little to the media, downplays most things, lets Milford do all the talking about future prospects, gives nothing away, resists saying anything either positive or negative, coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. That tells me quite a lot about early signs of progress in that market. He doesn't strike me as the sort of person that would make those sort of positive comments lightly unless he had good reason to back them up. Having said that, of course there is always plenty of opportunity, its the conversion from opportunity to reality which the market will be assessing in the coming months.
In my view a sales result in the USA market higher than expected by the market at reporting time will easily drive the price to 50% higher than where it is now.

[MAC]

We certainly won’t see meaningful sales form the US in the next report, it’s not only earlier than ATM have planned for, but there are only a couple of months of US activity within the reporting period.

Certainly though they are walking the talk,

All on track and on time with the US launch, they have told us that they expect second half UK revenues to double, they are ahead of their fresh milk market share goal in Australia, infant formula is practically flying off the shelves in Australia, and they expect fresh milk exports to China to double this year.

I think this coming FY report may be a little understated by analysts with a consensus for $154M (+38%) in revenues.

I’m looking for $161M (+45%), but wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as $166M actually.

[NT001]

...The thing that has got me a little excited is Babidge, a man who says very little to the media, (is) coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. ...

What excites me even more, Harrie, is that the US CEO, Jeffrey O'Neill, already has a plan for rapid nationwide expansion, including a move soon into the northeast. That makes sense, given that a2MC is already using a milk processor in New York state, and the northeast fits exactly with Babidge's definition of the kind of regions the company is looking to in order to exceed its Australian market success.

[Apathy]

Ap The thing that has got me a little excited is Babbage, a man who says very little to the media, downplays most things, lets Milford do all the talking about future prospects, gives nothing away, resists saying anything either positive or negative, coming out with that sort of highly positive statement. .

A rare commodity - should be stuffed and mounted! Would love to see these guys do well.

[sb9]

We certainly won’t see meaningful sales form the US in the next report, it’s not only earlier than ATM have planned for, but there are only a couple of months of US activity within the reporting period.

Certainly though they are walking the talk,

All on track and on time with the US launch, they have told us that they expect second half UK revenues to double, they are ahead of their fresh milk market share goal in Australia, infant formula is practically flying off the shelves in Australia, and they expect fresh milk exports to China to double this year.

I think this coming FY report may be a little understated by analysts with a consensus for $154M (+38%) in revenues.

I’m looking for $161M (+45%), but wouldn’t be surprised to see it as high as $166M actually.

Agree totally and it should get further boost with lower fx rates with AUD (.9268) and GBP (.4696) as we speak, which is where their main growth comes from.

[NT001]

This kind of promo never does any harm:

https://www.yahoo.com/beauty/the-bea...382918433.html

[airedale]

The price of the tea takes my breath away. Up to $43/ounce. But one ingests the whole tea leaf so they say. I chew the tea leaves from my green tea. Much more economical
But a good plug for A2 milk.

[Ginger_steps_]

Another on the ground observation for ya'll, from Australia. Our local IGA now stocks a2 (they only stock 4 milk brands) and sell for Coles old price of $4.99 (Coles now sell for $4.70). I can only see it as a positive when IGA's in towns of populations around 5000 stock a2 as one of their four fresh milk offerings

[MAC]

Will be interesting to see these presentations land next week, perhaps some further progress to be reported.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/asx-spotlight-asia/

http://www.asx.com.au/spotlight/asia/