ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Harrie]

Are the 5 o'clock boys still around? They may have run out of shares to sell. Me thinks 55c 56c tonight with no news.

Yes see weed that's in my range. I think 0.58 is pushing it though. According to the TA boys 0.58 is a point which coincides with longer term 30 and 60 day MA's. Not being a TA it does seem to be a pivot point if it can hold for a while above that number.
Looking for 0.63 to get into the green again....

[see weed]

My guess is 58c at close, its 53c on ASX at the moment.

I think you maybe close with all those buyers, and sellers getting thin.

[winner69]

And this, my friends, is how resistance works

Always pay to keep an eye on those things when 'punting' eh my friend

[see weed]

Someone took out all the 57c sellers well after 5pm. They were still disappearing at 5.08pm. So where to from here? 44,500,000 plus traded this last week.

[vin]

Just about in the green after that ^_^ Ha

[blobbles]

This is my take on whats happening...

For about 6 months there has been a big seller flooding the market, seemingly taking any offer above 45c, letting the SP recover a little then flooding the market again.

I would say on Tuesday, the big seller has either got rid of everything they wanted to sell or sold enough that they decided they can take a big break.

The result has been nobody has really been interested in buying. Why buy when next week the big seller will push it lower?

Suddenly the big seller is gone. People have woken up and realised that without the big seller, there is likely only one way for the SP to go. This creates buying pressure as they all try and get in before "the big rise". The price might drop a little now and scare a few of them out, but medium term I see it heading North, hopefully up to fair value (80c ish by my reckoning). A good full year result and we should see my fair value unless the big buyer still has more to sell...

[Harrie]

In the absence of no new news I tend to believe that too blobbles, however I also think that moving up the best part of 10% on the day is not possible on that fact alone. Here are a couple of other factors IMO.
1. looking at the two presentations a2mc has made recently appear to be pretty slick. They look well organised, and their vision for the company is strong and believable
2. David Mair has provided a bit of a signal adding to his already sizeable parcel. Needs to be careful he does not attract too much attention to buying larger volumes for obvious reasons.

still a few cents short of my ABP

[NT001]

This is my take on whats happening...For about 6 months there has been a big seller flooding the market, seemingly taking any offer above 45c, letting the SP recover a little then flooding the market again.

...Suddenly the big seller is gone. People have woken up and realised that without the big seller, there is likely only one way for the SP to go. This creates buying pressure as they all try and get in before "the big rise".

I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.

My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.

But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.

I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.

[iceman]

I'm no expert in market analysis, Blobbles, but I agree pretty much with Harrie that your analysis does not really explain what's been happening. Have large numbers of "people" really been watching the ATM share price that closely each day and all of them suddenly woken up within the span of a day or two and realised ("guessed" would be a better word) that the big seller has gone and it's the right time now to enter the market, resulting in well over 40m shares being traded? I just don't see that as probable.

My guess is that it has more to do with some big investors being impressed by ATM's latest market presentation. Look at the size of the trading. It looks to me rather like shrewd and informed buying by big investors, possibly some of them Asian. And they are not deterred by the company's indication that it MAY want to raise fresh capital to fund expansion.

But for every share sale there has to be a seller, so who are the sellers? I don't think lots of shareholders have suddenly chosen this moment to sell their shares at prices below what they were a few months ago. I strongly suspect the big seller is still there but has changed strategy a bit, realising that there are now some big buyers interested in ATM and there's no need to keep pushing the price down into the 40s, a rather self-defeating exercise. Let it rise, and feed demand at higher prices. Finally the market looks like moving towards more realistic levels.

I actually differ from those who believe investors are primarily focussed on ATM's 2015 sales figures, which will determine the short term direction of the SP. It's still early days. Big investors and committed longterm ones like myself will have a longer perspective and will be looking more at the company's overall strategy, which I think is impressive and likely to start yielding notable results over the next 2-3 years. The company's future is huge but is only just beginning really, after a few major hiccups such as the untimely deaths of its founders, which it was extremely fortunate to survive.

I concur with all of that. I think there is more to this than a big seller having exited and it has to relate to the recent presentations. Like harry says, they are slick, which is all fine. But I can not really see any meaningful new information in there for those of us that have been following ATM for a while. But they have possibly made presentations to different investors than they have before and sparked some interest and put ATM on those guys radar screens.

I do think the 2015 financials are important, but only so far as to give us an idea of how the implementation of their strategy is going, particularly UK, China and USA.

[ziggy415]

3 mill gone thru already this morn...big buyer but equally big seller.....still no holder notification just adds to the puzzle......can we expect a levelling off being its a friday.......wonder if 69 is expecting big dump today