ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[drcjp]

3 mill gone thru already this morn...big buyer but equally big seller.....still no holder notification just adds to the puzzle......can we expect a levelling off being its a friday.......wonder if 69 is expecting big dump today

Well, A2 wanted more liquidity and they certainly seem to have it this week!

[nextbigthing]

What makes you think this time they've finished? Everyone said that last time when a massive volume went through and it was back to the usual.

I hope they have finished. But who knows?

[Harrie]

Agree with all that Iceman, no new news for ATM followers, but huge exposure to investor groups who have just had their lights turned on by a well articulated presentation on aims objectives, scientific substance, brand building aspirations and strategies going forward.

That's the hype, the market now need to see the substance, or a positive trajectory.

Still believe there are big sellers out there, but on the basis of a sudden rush of demand sellers are likely to be considering either stepping back and selling at a higher price or reassessing the maintenance of their current exposure.

Written b4 the market opened. Will be an interesting day

[ziggy415]

I seem to remember one poster saying that amp on their calculation still had 32 mill shares left so if it is amp squaring up this last week must have seen that job done and dusted

[Harrie]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.

Looking at what is going on and the sudden burst of demand combined with a potential retraction of selling pressure I am going to shift my trading range slightly now from $0.53c to $0.58c pending trend confirmation.

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

[NT001]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.... (but)

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

I agree that the only obvious explanation is the new interest generated by the briefings, but I think it's a bit harsh to say the SP movement is based only on "speculation" and no "hard data". The company produces financials at the appropriate times, and they are trending in the right direction. Of course we're all impatient to see the FY15 numbers.

But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers. This is concrete evidence of momentum, competence and a well thought-out strategy, factors that big investors are professionally able to evaluate. I wouldn't call that speculation, even though there's a speculative element involved, as with all investments.

Even if we already had the FY data, any investment in a2MC would still have to be based largely on an assessment of the company's future, and it's good to see Babidge is out there with the kind of info investors need. It would be great if we had a transcript of the Q&A that followed his briefings, and if we knew who attended. It would also be fascinating to see an update in a month's time of the details given in his presentation about the distribution of shareholdings.

[skid]

Movement in SP is still based on speculation in the absence of hard data.

Looking at what is going on and the sudden burst of demand combined with a potential retraction of selling pressure I am going to shift my trading range slightly now from $0.53c to $0.58c pending trend confirmation.

Sudden demand increase does not come by chance. Something has clicked and IMO this has mainly come from increased exposure and the value proposition articulated through the seminar briefings

I agree with the importance of hard data--doesnt have to be earth shattering but should be pointing in the right direction.

Having said that,it may well have found its realistic level now ,while being undervalued from the selling before.

Alot more happy campers around now--congrats to all who benefited.

[Harrie]

Slight correction NT. We know that a2mc produce hard data, but I am referring to hard data not yet known to the market which we probably won't get until FY15 report. The "speculation" is the anticipation that all the positives you mention above become a reality

"But meanwhile a2MC has been quite forward in explaining its expansion strategy and keeping the market informed about progress in implementing it, such as sales into China and the takeup of A2 milk by stores in California, a market of almost 40m consumers". Sorry NT but that is speculation. The fact that it is in all those stores and among all those consumers may say more about an effective distribution story than actual sales. The China formula story is not a given yet either. I accept though that its still positive and believe me I really hope it all comes to fruition. I'm reading what the market is thinking right now..or trying to.

[winner69]

So Milford have sold heaps

Must have looked at their valuations and said **** never really worth 90 cents or what it was and manage the risk accordingly. Mac used Milford implied valuation as validation for his numbers

But then they do still have nearly 10%

[Harrie]

Pleased about that W69 because I know a bit about how fund managers operate. They were donkey deep into ATM and I suspect that ATM was a focus of the FMA 's investigation in market manipulation.
That in conjunction with being shafted on the SP last year didn't look good in the kiwisaver quarterly performance stats so it then became an excercise in risk minimisation and while ATM had all the promise of future growth potential it could never be guaranteed so out the door they went.
Why am I happy about that? Right decision for them but for the wrong reasons. Concentration on short term performance.
Suspect they will keep some but not sure how many. Suggest around 5 to 8 million shares.
More selling to be done but I am encouraged by higher demand.
Don't expect ACC or NZSF to be sellers.