ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[000831]

Hi all, Chinese government is considering a trade barrier for foreign infant formula. Now they are working on the wine barrier for French Wine products and Chemical products from Germany, for the next stage, it's turn to NZ milk products. Already gave signals on Chinese National TV Channel.

Because the non-Chinese currencies depreciated, it may cause some trade wars to against "dumping" among the big economy countries. Such as current Euro anti-dump plan against Chinese solar products.

I am more happy to see how the marketing promotion is going on after A2 infant products arrivals in Shang Hai. Need to two months to figure out.

[westcoaster]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10888405 Nice reassurance for A2?. I hope the link works if not just copy and paste it in your browser.

[mcdongle]

Anyone know how much formula ATM have ordered from Synlait ??

[westcoaster]

http://ruralnews.co.nz/dairy-news/da...omestic-launch this should answer your question

[stoploss]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10890965

[MAC]

This will hopefully continue to provide some confidence that the ministry are actively now addressing matters.

It's all up from here.

http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/milk...brands-5466478

[MAC]

ATM has provided guidance that they are “on track to achieve FY13 EBITDA of $11.2M before intercompany charges”. We also know that ATM have stated publically that they anticipate FY16 revenues “to be at about $280M”. This is around 3 times the anticipated FY13 revenues and if you do the math represents average forward revenue growth of about 45% per annum over the next 4 years.

This is recent but not new news, but how must we assess top to bottom line margins.

ATM’s average margin over the last two years has been 6.5% and we should anticipate this to improve further as the company grows and gains further efficiencies. A present margin of 6.5% is not bad with in a low margin industry, Fonterra’s HY13 margin was only 4.9%.

ATM operate in a global market, have a value added product above their competitors, yet contract a good percentage of their production and have entered into difficult to assess joint ventures.

Have any posters a studied expectation of forward ATM margins ?

[000831]

Fonterra announced that its Anmum brand will start to sell in China this year. Competitiors for A2 one by one.....

[stoploss]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...-Mengniu-Dairy

[MAC]

Presentation by Geoff Babidge, CEO, to the 7th Global Dairy Congress in Lucerne Switzerland
19-20th June 2013.

Highlights:

AUSTRALIA:
· In Australia, approximately 25% of consumers are dairy sensitive or intolerant
· 718% growth in the Australian market since HY2008
· Significant price premium over other branded milks and, c.150% premium over home brands

UK IRELAND & EUROPE:
· Joint venture with Robert Wiseman Dairies in the United Kingdom and Ireland. RWD is largest UK milk processor
· Launch of a2™ brand fresh milk into the UK from October 2012. Initial listing in 900 outlets nationwide
· Opportunity to expand the product portfolio in other European markets

CHINA:
· First shipment of infant formula product to be on shelf September 2013

http://www.noodls.com/viewNoodl/1909...-presentation-

Check out the Australian revenue growth curve within this presentation. If ATM achieve similar growth in their other markets this could all just take-off.

I’m also encouraged by the 150% price premium which is beginning to satisfy some of my assumptions on what top to bottom line profit margins ATM will ultimately achieve. ie: what the A2 marketing premium is worth over and above their non A2 competitors.

Mac