ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[iceman]

Thanks for posting this Mac. It is hard to get much info on progress with this company so I appreciate anything like this, good or bad. Am reasonably invested in ATM and my gut is telling me to accumulate even more, but hard on this information vacuum.

[MAC]

It's good to see a concise consolidation of the scientific and medical research as well, more so than I've seen previously.

I'm also quite curious about such a bold statement by Geoff Babidge in the presentation summary, wow !

"Further scientific developments may drive step change in awareness and public support. Potential for a2™ brand to become the global default milk"

[janner]

It's good to see a concise consolidation of the scientific and medical research as well, more so than I've seen previously.

I'm also quite curious about such a bold statement by Geoff Babidge in the presentation summary, wow !

"Further scientific developments may drive step change in awareness and public support. Potential for a2™ brand to become the global default milk"

From my understanding A2 milk was the norm at one time.. Genetics have changed all of that..
Today you have many Lactose intolerant people.. Unheard of in my youth.. We all drank the free milk at school..

Lactose intolerant !!.. A growing market ..

[westcoaster]

From my understanding A2 milk was the norm at one time.. Genetics have changed all of that..
Today you have many Lactose intolerant people.. Unheard of in my youth.. We all drank the free milk at school..

Lactose intolerant !!.. A growing market ..

Unheard of in our youth because as you say A2 milk was the norm.

Lactose intolerance is a modern day illness and in most cases is very difficult to diagnose accurately.
Until now, I think it is has really just been a convenient way of hiding the fact that it's the BCM7 creating the problem.

[Banksie]

Unheard of in our youth because as you say A2 milk was the norm.

As far as I know (in other words what I can glean from google), the A1 mutation occurred around 5000 years ago. Older breeds of cow such as Jerseys, African and Asian breeds give mostly A2 milk while the black and white cows Friesian and Holstein give A1.

As a kid I remember my mom telling me to drink Jersey or Guernsey cow milk because it was the best. Was there wisdom in this old wives tale?

If the milk you were getting as a kid was mostly A2...has the national herd changed? Were there less Holsteins in the past?

[MAC]

Agree that ATM is looking well oversold now, like a lot of other stocks at present I guess. The SP bounced off support at 60 cents on Friday, MA200 is also 60 cents. We may see a levelling off about here.

[MAC]

Cautiously looking at the charts again today, we may be seeing some consolidation now and a re-continuation of the upward trend line. If the SP breaks resistance at $0.63 within the next week I'd be comfortable topping up at these over sold levels.

[Lease]

Cautiously looking at the charts again today, we may be seeing some consolidation now and a re-continuation of the upward trend line. If the SP breaks resistance at $0.63 within the next week I'd be comfortable topping up at these over sold levels.

Do you really think charting is reliable?

[MAC]

Nope and I don't own a crystal ball, but when stocks are oversold and the fundamentals are good one has to try and decide when ?

[Snoopy]

Like lactose intolerance, many people are self diagnosing themselves as gluten intolerant, they know that something is upsetting their stomach, but its not formally diagnosed. Lactose/dairy intolerance is the same, and A2 should cash in on the dietary trend.

I'm looking to enter, but just watching at the moment due to the market ructions. I could almost live with a current P/E of 80 but I'm assuming it will come down lower :-)

I think you are right about the PE coming down KW.

Credit where credit is due. The fact that a high tech start-up is generating a profit lifts it above 90% of other high tech start ups immediately in my eyes. However to suggest that something like 60c is 'value' in any valuation sense is way over the top. Paint a growth story big enough and any price can look like value to those will starry eyed glasses. I guess if A2 takes off in China, then todays' shareholders will indeed be well rewarded.

However, of greater relevance from my perspective is, why hasn't A2 taken off in New Zealand? This is warning sign to me that no market is a 'done deal'.

Next if you read Professor Keith Woodhouse's blogs on A2, you will see that although containing A2 apparently means that such milk can be consumed by the lactose intolerant, he is not sure why. Possibly something to do with slowing down the digestive tract process is his best guess. But there are other ways to do that. And of course there are other milk substitutes (soy milk, rice milk) that may be better for lactose intolerant people.

What I see with A2 milk is a one product company with probable health benefits, of which satisfying the demands of the lactose intolerant is not one, which will face huge marketing headwinds. Their success in Australia is admirable, but success in other markets must be earned. I believe it is very unlikely that A2 milk will succeed in every market it tackles, and there will be opportunities to pick up shares genuinely cheaply if the boat rocks.

At 60c I would consider A2 grossly overpriced, and with the exception of one or two software shares, the most expensive share on the New Zealand market, period. I will be looking to enter A2 at some stage, but I won't be paying any more than 20c for my A2 shares.

SNOOPY