ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Joshuatree]

Contagion spreading to Beston foods BFC

Eat your hear out Australian Dairy AHF up 97% today

[Ginger_steps_]

I don't have any shareholding in ATM, but from what I see that has happened is that ATM is being rerated from a company valued on its foreseeable future cashflows and profits to being a growth company. So expect 10 times revenues which forecast 300 million so i would not be surprised if this pops above $3.50. (next year)

If you consider
2013: 94 million
2014: 110million
2015: 150 millon

and

2016: 300-315million.

Revenue is doubling next year, thats super growth and for a company with a moat like A2 thats pretty big.

If you look at current valuations it is valuing at 1.6 billion, not far off the current 150million revenue times 10.

If this stock hits $3.50 Sir - I will send you a nice bottle of scotch (because Im in a great mood and 350 sounds just swell). I believe there are a few quite possible events which could send a2's SP into the stratosphere over the next few years, I mean - we are talking biotech milk here people! Keep up the excellent work a2!

[Ginger_steps_]

The Aussies on Hot copper really do not understand a2's IP... will try to enlighten a few after work - unless any of you beat me to it. I guess as shareholders we can help this company out by "marketing" it to / educating the aussie investors.

[Trigger]

The Aussies on Hot copper really do not understand a2's IP... will try to enlighten a few after work - unless any of you beat me to it. I guess as shareholders we can help this company out by "marketing" it to / educating the aussie investors.

Good luck with that Ginger. Don't be surprised if you get shot down over there for letting facts get in the way of a good story. Some of the posting has been unbelievably shallow.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah id leave it be; they're doing a fab job , momemtumwise

[NT001]

The Aussies on Hot copper really do not understand a2's IP... will try to enlighten a few after work - unless any of you beat me to it. I guess as shareholders we can help this company out by "marketing" it to / educating the aussie investors.

I've already had a go at that and it just got lost in amongst all the ridiculous hype on HC. It's pointless. ll they see is "infant formula into China" which I pointed out is a market vulnerable to government regulatory intervention, vigorous competition out of Europe and the risk of commercial scams etc. The recent rocketing SP is based on comparisons with BAL that are not really valid. Even for a long term substaantial holder like myself who sees ATM as ultimately a $5 or $10 share, what's happened recently is crazy. I also pointed out (in reply to concerns by one contributor on HC) that the risk to ATM/A2M is not from competitors like Nestle invading the A2 milk market, because a2MC has that covered by IP/trademarks and it just ain't possible anyway in practical terms. Anyone investing in a2MC without understanding that its value lies primarily in the uniqueness of its product and the IP which covers it is in risky territory. My post pointing out these issues drew zero response.

[mayday]

I've already had a go at that and it just got lost in amongst all the ridiculous hype on HC. It's pointless. ll they see is "infant formula into China" which I pointed out is a market vulnerable to government regulatory intervention, vigorous competition out of Europe and the risk of commercial scams etc. The recent rocketing SP is based on comparisons with BAL that are not really valid. Even for a long term substaantial holder like myself who sees ATM as ultimately a $5 or $10 share, what's happened recently is crazy. I also pointed out (in reply to concerns by one contributor on HC) that the risk to ATM/A2M is not from competitors like Nestle invading the A2 milk market, because a2MC has that covered by IP/trademarks and it just ain't possible anyway in practical terms. Anyone investing in a2MC without understanding that its value lies primarily in the uniqueness of its product and the IP which covers it is in risky territory. My post pointing out these issues drew zero response.

Fair enough NT. IMO, still A2MC is very likely to be taken over in the near future (because of the possession of IP) before it reaches $10 apiece

[Joshuatree]

http://www.smh.com.au/money/food-fo...ities-in-the-dining-boom-20151016-gkbfj9.html

[RGR367]

I've already had a go at that and it just got lost in amongst all the ridiculous hype on HC. It's pointless. ll they see is "infant formula into China" which I pointed out is a market vulnerable to government regulatory intervention, vigorous competition out of Europe and the risk of commercial scams etc. The recent rocketing SP is based on comparisons with BAL that are not really valid. Even for a long term substaantial holder like myself who sees ATM as ultimately a $5 or $10 share, what's happened recently is crazy. I also pointed out (in reply to concerns by one contributor on HC) that the risk to ATM/A2M is not from competitors like Nestle invading the A2 milk market, because a2MC has that covered by IP/trademarks and it just ain't possible anyway in practical terms. Anyone investing in a2MC without understanding that its value lies primarily in the uniqueness of its product and the IP which covers it is in risky territory. My post pointing out these issues drew zero response.

Yeah, crazy as it is, the market is beyond satiation at this point. My sell order will get hit for sure at $2.50 anytime now. Lucky are those who got heaps and still holding on

[silverblizzard888]

If this stock hits $3.50 Sir - I will send you a nice bottle of scotch (because Im in a great mood and 350 sounds just swell). I believe there are a few quite possible events which could send a2's SP into the stratosphere over the next few years, I mean - we are talking biotech milk here people! Keep up the excellent work a2!

That’s mighty generous of you Sir, regardless of that or not when this stock hits above $3.50 next year I think I'll personally just be happy for you full-stop.

For now it should consolidate within the $2 range and start pacing up as we get closer to June (financial year unless prior announcements), unless this market becomes very bullish and realises it quicker. Regarding the next few years I think they have great potential, but I never trouble myself to predict that far.

The Aussies on Hot copper really do not understand a2's IP... will try to enlighten a few after work - unless any of you beat me to it. I guess as shareholders we can help this company out by "marketing" it to / educating the aussie investors.

I think Hotcopper has a mixed number, some who do understand it but no longer talk about it as much and those traders who are new to the stock and feel it’s a industry boom again rather than a unique moat by the company. All people understand is that baby formula is big and that if it sells formula, then that’s the formula for success.
The unique moat around A2 milk is that it locks customers in through the better product approach both psychologically in the mind that drinking A1 would be damaging to your body after what you know of A2 and physically that this milk actually works, except they just need better science results to further prove it.

Even this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_T_OBGf3QE
Explains simply how it works and why it works, if they can educate consumers then its going to gain a lot of traction in the US.

I don't think many people are being flexible about their approach especially those who have only seen this stock move like a snail year after year and have the mentality this is a temporary rise. Yes it’s a shock to the system that all of a sudden this stock has gathered pace, but with that comes more awareness of what this stock truly is. Its earning between 10-15% margins in cash flow from revenue, given the rate this business grows thats big stuff and can match the tech firms out there.

How many stocks have you seen grow their revenue 100% especially at this size? That growth is more than Xero, but unlike Xero they are profitable and their retention rate will be a lot higher.