ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[MAC]

Welcome aboard to you Ginger Steps.

Alas it seems A2 is not much known here in NZ like it is in NSW and VIC, even Wagga had A2 when I lived there. Onwards and upwards indeed, in the UK now, next the US then Europe.

[blakecb]

Hey Guys - First post! Thanks for all the good info Ive read around the forum the last 6 months - Im an absolute amateur so I need all the advice I can get!

Regarding A2 - Im (kiwi) living in NSW Australia - I searched A2's website looking for supermarkets that stocked A2 - according to the website none of the supermarkets around me stock it - but they actually do stock A2 (which i drink now - call it investing in myself!) - I take this as a good sign for the next report. FYI - these are small supermarkets in a town with 4000 population.

Furthermore, I caught up with a dairy farmer at a chamber of commerce meeting a month back - with only 100 cows he was in the process of splitting the herd to separate the A2 cows. He said previously the organisation taking the A1 milk wouldnt allow him to split the herd - but now they have eased up a bit. He recons as a result many farmers in this region (mid coast NSW) are starting to do the same as they are fetching a higher price for the milk.

Also for those not aware - A2 now also have TV adverts in Aussie.

Onwards and upwards for A2!

Yeah great first post Ginger steps and really good Aussie info, so thanks!

[bull....]

what day are there results announced? is it next week

[hilskin]

FYI
Just been on the A2 facebook page and discovered that a2 Milk is a proud sponsor of MasterChef Australia 2013.
Great way to push the brand in front of millions of Australians.

[MAC]

My take is that ATM are fairly valued at present, and I’d be content with them adequately meeting guidance and continuing the steady up-trend.

ATM have been selling into the UK via the Wiseman JV for less than a year to June 2013, so we should not expect too much just yet in the way of revenues, and there will be as a matter of growth, JV costs to consider. I would be satisfied if ATM have entered with an inaugural part year (9 month) market share of 0.5%, IMO this would represent a very good result in respect to the Australian ramp up when at that stage.

Infant formula product sales in China were not planned until September 2013 so therefore we will not see any revenue contribution at FY13, but we may see lead in and ramp up costs.

Australian revenues will be impacted by the move in exchange rate.

ATM guidance is FY13 EBITDA of 11.2M before intercompany charges. I'm calling for FY13 revenues of 92M (+48%) and NPAT of 5.0M (+18%) as being a good solid result whilst ATM are investing heavily in future growth.

[blakecb]

We'll we will soon find out....annual results announcement tomorrow.

You'll likely be pleased to know Mac that I'm holding A2 "long-term" !

[MAC]

Well done blakecb, hope we all prosper together.

[blakecb]

My take is that ATM are fairly valued at present, and I’d be content with them adequately meeting guidance and continuing the steady up-trend.

ATM have been selling into the UK via the Wiseman JV for less than a year to June 2013, so we should not expect too much just yet in the way of revenues, and there will be as a matter of growth, JV costs to consider. I would be satisfied if ATM have entered with an inaugural part year (9 month) market share of 0.5%, IMO this would represent a very good result in respect to the Australian ramp up when at that stage.

Infant formula product sales in China were not planned until September 2013 so therefore we will not see any revenue contribution at FY13, but we may see lead in and ramp up costs.

Australian revenues will be impacted by the move in exchange rate.

ATM guidance is FY13 EBITDA of 11.2M before intercompany charges. I'm calling for FY13 revenues of 92M (+48%) and NPAT of 5.0M (+18%) as being a good solid result whilst ATM are investing heavily in future growth.

You were pretty much on the money there MAC, well done.

[iceman]

Nice 1,000,000 bid in at 74c as well!!

Could be Sparky !

[Hoop]

The depth is showing an opening at 75c a break of resistance at 74 and therefore adding another buy signal to add to the collection
All excellent news TA wise