ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ginger_steps_]

Thanks for asking, I did very well out of my three year investment in ATM and sold at $2.

I think ATM will remain a growth co over years to come, they have all the opportunity in the world to progress the a2 difference as the first mover and potentially market leader in years to come.

But things don't go in straight lines Ginger, and 2017 is likely to be one of those flatish years for ATM. Likely, being an aggregate of forward plausible risk outcomes, that's the best an investor can do and assess.

Cult culture, yes, you just have to look on hotcopper to see just how many folk go no further in investment thinking then "a2 is good" must then buy and hold, then it's faith, belief, hope, practically a religion for them based on very little attention to real analysis and with a myopic view of anything else including investment advice they should really be actually taking note of.

I think ATM could well correct post agm, I would genuinely like to be proven wrong though, it could even possibly correct for up to 12 months.

I expect SML will have a better year, most of their stars are aligning, I've rotated from ATM to SML now.

It appears this one is going in a straight line, well not entirely - others would say exponential

[Yoda]

For what it's worth, median target price of $2.22 from 5 analysts, 4 with hold and 1 with sell recommendation, so sell very much the underdog.

I think you said on another post that you bought some last week? Well done . Good timing. Im going to wait until it is over its last high point , and see what change i have in my pocket after the election . One more sleep to go ! GOD BLESS AMERICA ... and everyone else too.

[iluab]

It appears this one is going in a straight line, well not entirely - others would say exponential

Not really, I'd settle for flat to low growth though Ginger,

Lets see what guidance comes from the agm, based on the Q1 revenue at $112.5 we are probably looking at revenue guidance of around $450M, perhaps a less depending how much ATM discount for regulatory disruption as Synlait already have, vs $514 which is the present analyst consensus.

So, in my humble opinion, the market is generally still likely to be underwhelmed on agm day, despite today's presentation and all the good work ATM are doing.

We will need to wait and see if they can hit UK&US segment expectations given they fell well short of guidance at FY reporting achieving only 50% of expected revenues. The market has lost confidence a little in the US entry, esp because of the increase capital requirement also.

Still ATM could surprise and avoid some regulatory disruption, and if SML can somehow respond with short notice a2 orders, than both companies could potentially do quite well, especially SML which is well undervalued on the NZX at the moment but is due to list on the ASX before xmas, the ASX will just lap SML up I reckon.

[Leftfield]

And of course we have ATM's successful court action to look forward to in late 2017

My bet is a ATM win, (more than likely settled out of court before the hearing.)

[blobbles]

Big difference in the close prices today, ATM should shoot to 2.14 tomorrow if it matches Aus price.

[smalltrader]

Unless Trump wins

[winner69]

I particularly love this bit from presentation:
-Continued and consistent growth in consumer demand for a2 Platinum® infant formula, in contrast to expectations of volatility in certain research reports

Would say a slap in the face for Citi for their recent downgrade....

Good one

Pretty useless some of those guru analysts

[Sideshow Bob]

Big difference in the close prices today, ATM should shoot to 2.14 tomorrow if it matches Aus price.

Picked it Bobbles. $2.13 at the moment (ATM).........

[blobbles]

Picked it Bobbles. $2.13 at the moment (ATM).........

Good way to make a bit of money if you were in there this morning. I tried but aimed too low :-(

[iluab]

Surprising that SML hasn't moved yet on the news also given that's where the infant formula comes from, they must be reconsidering their expectations also to the upside for FY17, a bit for a food chain lag perhaps, excusing all goods puns.