ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Leftfield]

Surprising that SML hasn't moved yet on the news also given that's where the infant formula comes from, they must be reconsidering their expectations also to the upside for FY17, a bit for a food chain lag perhaps, excusing all goods puns.

With respect, there has never been much correlation between ATM and SML as this chart shows. (Well since mid 2015 that is.)

Attachment 8441

[iluab]

Ah yeah, good point there Left Field, good effort with the chart too, we will just have to wait for it to show in the sml guidance I guess, not long now, few days perhaps.

[sb9]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...t-formula-game

From the article...

"Recently, I asked an independent Shanghai-based market research CEO as to his impression of the success of the a2 Platinum brand over there. His response was four words: 'it is absolutely huge'.

[iluab]

It's agm day tomorrow, which way will the SP go ?

My bet is a dip on disappointing guidance, analysts are looking for $506m in revenues, my estimate is under $460m, but there may be enough in the commentary to attenuate some of that.

[see weed]

It's agm day tomorrow, which way will the SP go ?

My bet is a dip on disappointing guidance, analysts are looking for $506m in revenues, my estimate is under $460m, but there may be enough in the commentary to attenuate some of that.

Normally sp goes down with good results like it has in the past. Not too worried, holding is still 70k in the green from the 50c days.

[Ginger_steps_]

It's agm day tomorrow, which way will the SP go ?

My bet is a dip on disappointing guidance, analysts are looking for $506m in revenues, my estimate is under $460m, but there may be enough in the commentary to attenuate some of that.

"Why thanks for asking" How very optimistic of you to expect Synlait to increase guidance and a2 to deliver a poor guidance. Hasn't got anything to do with you "cycling into Synlait" and missing a2's 15% sp increase has it?

[iluab]

"Why thanks for asking" How very optimistic of you to expect Synlait to increase guidance and a2 to deliver a poor guidance. Hasn't got anything to do with you "cycling into Synlait" and missing a2's 15% sp increase has it?

Wouldn't normally reply to cynics, but yes cycling from ATM into SML is the right call in my opinion as an investor and as a matter of four years of continual analytical research on these companies.

Perhaps you would like to offer and share your estimate for ATM's FY17 guidance.

No one has to do so including myself, but it's useful as an investor to compare notes with rational others who don't just by and sell based on belief, hope, hype, feel.

We may very well see the guidance provided by both co's come together over the next week as they are paddocks apart at present.

The ATM agm is today, SML agm is next Tuesday.

[King1212]

possible dividend payment coming end of financial year

[iluab]

"4M17 EBITDA up 22.9% reflecting growth in infant formula sales".

Analyst estimates are presently for 60% EBITDA yoy, so ATM not meeting the market on that one thus far.

"4M17 Revenues $155.2M" implying $465M in annual revenues, not far from my estimate of $460M, but short of market expectations at $506M

Earnings to date look good though ay, $22M is a beat !

[bobxia]

Why share price has gone up 7% if they missed the market expectation?