ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[blobbles]

"4M17 EBITDA up 22.9% reflecting growth in infant formula sales".

Analyst estimates are presently for 60% EBITDA yoy, so ATM not meeting the market on that one thus far.

"4M17 Revenues $155.2M" implying $465M in annual revenues, not far from my estimate of $460M, but short of market expectations at $506M

Earnings to date look good though ay, $22M is a beat !

Assuming no growth from now. I am betting on ~10-20% growth through the year, so looking at ~510-540m FY17. I believe the first 3 months of this year are usually their slowest, so I think it will only get better from here. They also are always conservative and issue profit/revenue upgrades throughout the year. Never remember them issuing a downgrade...

22m earnings to date is fantastic. Looking like 100m earning full year IMO. Brilliant and sets them up for a potential 10c divi end of the year. Looking very attractive for dividend hounds.

[Leftfield]

22m earnings to date is fantastic. Looking like 100m earning full year IMO. Brilliant and sets them up for a potential 10c divi end of the year. Looking very attractive for dividend hounds.

Agree... hard to fault this company. Exciting news for holders.

[Ginger_steps_]

"4M17 EBITDA up 22.9% reflecting growth in infant formula sales".

Analyst estimates are presently for 60% EBITDA yoy, so ATM not meeting the market on that one thus far.

"4M17 Revenues $155.2M" implying $465M in annual revenues, not far from my estimate of $460M, but short of market expectations at $506M

Earnings to date look good though ay, $22M is a beat !

Bit short of expectations?? haha - look at their 2H vs 1H revenues for the last 3 years - revenue growth in the second half always heavily exceeds the first. Now we have a poss divvy on the cards - i think your timing was terrible. Have you stopped to consider that a2's new agreement with Synlait could basically be taking over all of Synlait's capacity and then adding a further 12.5 growth?? A2 could significantly grow revenue while Synlait has modest growth. My revenue estimate - easily $510M. IMO somewhere closer to $530M.

[okay]

Good presentation and meeting. Both David and Geoff are good at giving a clear, concise and well articulated message.
I was fortunate enough to go to the meeting last year and felt the same that day.

[whatsup]

Great start today up 4% = .09 !!

[sb9]

Thoughts on AGM and Numbers:

- Watched the AGM thro' virtual link and it was great and well conducted.

- Chairman very inspiring with good sense of humour, so does Geoff CEO and rest of board very professional, positive and upbeat.

- As per numbers there were too many positives and very strong growth lines. Couple of key takeaways for me were,
- Sales for Jul-Sep period were 112.5 m from previous update and
Sales for Jul-Oct period were 155.2 m from y'day's AGM

It represents sales for Oct were 42.7 m, make what you out of that and not to mention what'll be for Nov if we include 11/11 or singles day sales ( would say at least 50m)
Based on these, I would be really surprised if they don't exceed $500m for full year.

- 4 additional new products launches planned for 2017 of which notable one is Adult Nutrition.

- All in all 5 start performance from company and for shareholders, couldn't have asked for anything more....

May see another upgrade in few months time once 6 months trading is completed.

Disc- Happy with original parcel from 58c range and topped y'day with another parcel before results were out at 209.

GLTAH

[blobbles]

Thoughts on AGM and Numbers:

- Watched the AGM thro' virtual link and it was great and well conducted.

- Chairman very inspiring with good sense of humour, so does Geoff CEO and rest of board very professional, positive and upbeat.

- As per numbers there were too many positives and very strong growth lines. Couple of key takeaways for me were,
- Sales for Jul-Sep period were 112.5 m from previous update and
Sales for Jul-Oct period were 155.2 m from y'day's AGM

It represents sales for Oct were 42.7 m, make what you out of that and not to mention what'll be for Nov if we include 11/11 or singles day sales ( would say at least 50m)
Based on these, I would be really surprised if they don't exceed $500m for full year.

- 4 additional new products launches planned for 2017 of which notable one is Adult Nutrition.

- All in all 5 start performance from company and for shareholders, couldn't have asked for anything more....

May see another upgrade in few months time once 6 months trading is completed.

Disc- Happy with original parcel from 58c range and topped y'day with another parcel before results were out at 209.

GLTAH

Exactly what I figured out. On no growth from now revenue per month is 512m. Is a serious upside to this so could easily hit 550m with decent growth. At that rate 100m profit is not looking impossible for next FY. Likely Nov revenue figure is more like 50m with singles day...

I believe A2 only represents ~1% of infant formula market share for China last year too. Plenty of room for movement there...

Plus add in their new adult health products they are due to release, serious upside potential in the pipeline.

Plenty to like, can't see much negative. UK will make a profit this year, will be interesting to see how USA does. Pumping 20m into there is the only way to find out though!

[iluab]

What an outstanding NPAT result, congrats to all ATM holders

Up 6.5% thus far, lets see what the Aussies add this arvo.

Nice to see some volume going through today on Synlait too, SML agm on Tuesday.

[NZSilver]

Surely ATM is a prime takeover target for a larger dairy company exporting or looking to export formula to China.

[bottomfeeder]

Surely ATM is a prime takeover target for a larger dairy company exporting or looking to export formula to China.

Let me see NTA 16 cents, EPS 4.33 cents. Share Price $2.55. Just who is silly enough to takeover this company. A2 milk is produced by a lot of Dairy Farmers in combination with A1.