ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[see weed]

Let me see NTA 16 cents, EPS 4.33 cents. Share Price $2.55. Just who is silly enough to takeover this company. A2 milk is produced by a lot of Dairy Farmers in combination with A1.

Hello bottomfeeder, welcome to atm. sp is a bit lower than $2.55, but looks like it is heading in that direction. As for take over, they had their chance at 50c, as I was telling customers in Countdown a year ago....Look here a2 milk,a nz company, healthier choice, and you can buy shares in a2 for only 50c, get in fast before someone else does.

[Ginger_steps_]

It’s a matter of perspective, you said all they need to do is replicate 2H16 revenues, not once but twice, for 1H17 and 2H17, and then perform 20% better than that yet again for good measure.

Do stop and have a think about just how speculative that really is;

Those 2H16 revenues were achieved at the peak of the infant formula and grey market channel boom, and at a time when the regulatory headwinds were not yet in effect.

There are headwinds going forward now,

Companies like Danone are telling us that their infant formula sales to China through online and grey market channels are dropping, and ATM are way way more exposed to the grey channel than the likes of Danone.

Comvita, in the face of similar regulatory changes recently made a HY loss stating that was entirely due to those regulatory changes.

Synlait have provided guidance, it’s telling, and should not be ignored by investors.

If you run the math on that Synlait guidance in respect of ATM, it paints a forward revenue picture, with both 1H17 and 2H17 revenues below that of 2H16.

Let’s wait for the agm to see what that guidance is precisely, my only warning and recommendation to folks, is to shake off any influence from the ATM cult culture, focus on what’s real, and make the right decision, whatever that may be for you.

Meet the cult Iluab - they aren't such a bad bunch once you "stop" and listen to what they are actually trying to tell you.

[see weed]

If ATM was to pay a dividend at end of financial year, what would be your estimate dividend for the year. I will start by predicting 2c. Anyone else care to add.

[blobbles]

If ATM was to pay a dividend at end of financial year, what would be your estimate dividend for the year. I will start by predicting 2c. Anyone else care to add.

I raise your 2c to 4.5c.

[see weed]

I raise your 2c to 4.5c.

Which is about 34-35 million payment? to all sh.

[blobbles]

Which is about 34-35 million payment? to all sh.

Yep exactly right. I figure 90m profit, tax, plus others off 530m revenue. Lucrative business... they already have a decent pile of dosh in the bank to fund growth for a few years. Can't see why they would want to build it unless they are looking to buy businesses up or down the supply chain (unlikely IMO). Come on, give us (you and me seeweed!) long suffering sharehoders that stuck by the company from 50c days some relief!

[mondograss]

I think it's likely they will want a good cash balance to do the value-add stuff (which may or may not involve taking a stake in other businesses like a cheese maker etc) so I'd say 2c is a safer bet.

[see weed]

Yep exactly right. I figure 90m profit, tax, plus others off 530m revenue. Lucrative business... they already have a decent pile of dosh in the bank to fund growth for a few years. Can't see why they would want to build it unless they are looking to buy businesses up or down the supply chain (unlikely IMO). Come on, give us (you and me seeweed!) long suffering sharehoders that stuck by the company from 50c days some relief!

I gotta better idea. Why not pay a 2c div every 3 months. It would keep the sp more stable and keep the sh happy. Then gradually move div up every 3 months in line with profit upgrades. What do ya think bottomfeeder, start low and slowly raise the div every 3 months.

[Leftfield]

I think it's likely they will want a good cash balance to do the value-add stuff (which may or may not involve taking a stake in other businesses like a cheese maker etc) so I'd say 2c is a safer bet.

There is also a possible payout when/if they win their court case.

Can't help thinking the Nov 2017 court date may work out well with the findings from their Chinese, Aus, USA and NZ research.

Interesting times ahead for holders.

[Yoda]

A good uplift in SP last year, and 10 months of consolidation. Now the SP passes its previous all time high, . Most shares continue up 10-20 % past their old high, with good annual growth results , and on expanding products .
It seems to me it is all the natural organic- sort-of-stuff going up. BLT. PIL. ATM .... THE WORLD IS WAKING UP TO "FUNCTIONAL MEDICINE" MAYBE?