ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[longy]

Another substantial holder came on board.... Don't really know for sure as to why one decided increase their holding... but I won't neccessary seeing this as negative ayh.

To NZX Limited
and
To The A2 Milk Company Limited (ATM)

Relevant event being disclosed: movement of 1% or more in substantial holding

Date of relevant event: 15 December 2016
Date this disclosure made: 19 December 2016
Date last disclosure made: 13 June 2016
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Greencape Capital Pty Ltd.

Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary fully paid shares in ATM
Summary for Greencape Capital Pty Ltd

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 60,992,227
(b) total in class: 725,620,065
(c) total percentage held in class: 8.41%

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 53,433,733
(b) total in class: 723,300,065
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.39%

[sb9]

Until Bellamy's announcement doesn't come out, I'm afraid A2 is not going anywhere and its perfect opportunity for shorters to go hard at it.

On Bellamy's issue, although they've been given time until tomorrow I had expected some sort of news from them by today, absolutely bollocks in my opinion, no sense of protecting and looking after shareholders capital.

Whatever news might be from them tomorrow there'll be heavy selling pressure to begin with and unfortunately A2 also will not be spared. Unless there is an update/upgrade from A2 in the meantime, my guess is they will only release any new if any once Bellamy's news is out.

What change of fortunes for A2 from their ASM day in NOV to this day (all in a month), unfortunate events outside their control and in a way unrelated to them.

[Leftfield]

Agree sb9. Until BAL end their trading halt with information then ATM will continue to be hit. I'm hoping for an ATM update after the BAL update which is likely tomorrow.

In the meantime the recent increased substantial holdings notices by Challenger and Greenscape both indicate their continued strong support for ATM.

[blobbles]

Yep agree. But if you are looking at buying, there could also be a massive over reaction and a lot of upside when 2 things happen:

1. Everyone jumps out of BAL, severely weakening the SP. They subsequently look for another milk producer that is growing...
2. ATM releases OK-fantastic revenue forecasts.

Even if ATM confirm what the market is expecting in terms of revenue forecast, IMO this will probably see a good SP rise. This is because people might be thinking that it is big Chinese regulatory issues affecting BAL and those same issues might be affecting the whole market. IMO it doesn't sound like regulatory issues affecting BAL, it just sounds like not as large as expected demand for BAL product or a complete screw up by management. Less demand for their product can only be a win for ATM though as the gap in their demand is probably being soaked up by ATM.

Picking exactly when to buy ATM shares might be a bit tricky though. Quick fingers and constant watching is probably necessary. There also might be the opportunities for bargains if ATM drops like a rock in response to BAL, which will probably drop like a rock coming out of suspension on whatever news they deliver. Whatever news it is, it can't be good.

[blobbles]

Bellamy's trying to kick the can down the road:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2016122...lbzk922x15.pdf

Though does this point to a supply side disruption rather than demand/regulatory disruption?

[mondograss]

Wow, they must be really in the @#$%

[sb9]

Bellamy's trying to kick the can down the road:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2016122...lbzk922x15.pdf

Big sigh and hmmmmm....further extension until 13 Jan 2017.

Numbers must be pretty grave....

Surely this can't be sector specific just company specific, hoping ATM can put a statement to reaffirm guidance given at ASM last month. That will separate milk and water so to speak...

[Leftfield]

Agree more uncertainty due to BAL TH extension to 13 Jan.

Does the silence from ATM mean 'business as usual' and 'nothing material to disclose'? Today's upwards SP movement seems to support this theory.

My big question now is whether to include ATM in my 2017 share pick comp!?

[Sideshow Bob]

Bellamy's trying to kick the can down the road:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2016122...lbzk922x15.pdf

Though does this point to a supply side disruption rather than demand/regulatory disruption?

I think they have a 'take or pay' agreement with their suppliers - so it could be a renegotiation of this in order to realign with any drop in sales??

From The Australian: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...d9a93327e72bb5

“There seems to be a serious disconnect between the amount of [raw materials] Bellamy’s has contracted to buy and what it is *actually now selling,” says Mr Fergie.
“They now have a [sales] volume problem, a pricing problem and a margin problem. I wouldn’t have thought that would have tipped them into insolvency, but it could be that their cash situation is dire and they are having problems making their payments [to Fonterra and Bega Cheese] because they have locked in such financially demanding take-or-pay supply contracts.

I notice they mention the F-word?? NZ's largest company.

[carrom74]

ATM just released an update....Merry x mas everyone!