ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Yoda]

I have suggested they look at non homogenised milk.
I would buy it if it was, lots of medical reasons not to drink homogenised, mainly fat molecules passing into the blood ,
gold standard for me would be A2/ hon- h / and organic .

hold

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/300591

ATM's investor presentation from y'day at Macquarie Securities conf in Sydney.

Following on the presentation article in NBR (behind paywall) states that they're targeting to grab 10% of Chinese IF market, which is estimated to be worth $18 Billion, yes billion. Imagine what that would mean for revenue and profits.

Historically they've been very coy about setting targets but this is first time they've outlined their ambitious goal and also a timeline on submission of CFDA documents for registration process by end May (this month).

Their story gets better and better.....

[bucko]

I just loved the half on half comparison chart they have in there, strengthens the case that they have under estimated 2H earnings IMO

[hardt]

Great article today in NBR...

A2 Milk targets 10% of China’s infant formula market
JENNY RUTHTHURSDAY MAY 4, 2017 1

A2 Milk wants to raise its share of China’s infant formula market to 5% and then in the long term to about 10%.
That was a key takeaway by attendees at the company’s presentation to Macquarie’s annual conference in Australia.
The company has previously been cautious about publicly announcing targets, so such openness about its ambitions is a sign of its increasing confidence.
The news from the conference sparked a 10c, or 3%, rise in its shares $3.46 yesterday. Although that’s down from the $3.58 high reached last week, the shares are more than 62% higher than they were at the beginning of this year.
The company says it has about 3% of the market in China and has outlined some of its plans for expanding and building brand awareness.
The A2 Platimum infant formula has lifted its market share in Australia from 25% in January to about 33% in the first week of April, based on Aztec data for grocery and pharmacy outlets.
Much of the infant formula sold in Australia is bought for the grey market or Daigou trade in China.
Matthew Ryland at Greencape Capital, which owns just under 8% of A2 Milk, says he is pleased to see the company is well advanced in adapting to Chinese regulatory changes.
“A2 said it would be submitting its application by the end of this month – that’s the first time it has put a date on that,” Mr Ryland says.
The lift in market share has come despite the brand being out of stock for much of the time. “It is overcoming what looks like empty shelves – there’s plenty of photos circulating showing that.”
The company reiterated what it said in its trading update last week that it has been working with Synlait Milk, which manufactures its infant formula, to increase production and overcome the stocking issues.
A2 bought an 8.2% stake in Synlait in early March.
The company also provided updates on its progress in other markets.
British progress
In Britain, where it has stumbled in the past, the company says its growth in fresh milk sales has exceeded its plan by 60% and that it has gained additional ranging in Sainsbury’s supermarkets.
“That’s been a market where it’s had it’s ups and downs,” Mr Ryland says.
“A2 had a re-think about how it approaches it. Some of the changes it has made seem to be gaining traction,” he says.
“That’s really important. It’s a proof point it is quite a dynamic management team. When things don’t pan out the way they would’ve expected, they reassess, make some changes and then execute.
“The UK appears to be going down the path where A2 is demonstrating that well.”
In the 2015 financial year, A2 changed its product sizes in the British market, downsizing its fresh milk from two-litre to one-litre packs, and repositioned it into the premium speciality milk segment, away from the mainstream dairy positioning it had previously occupied.
It also began work on broadening its product portfolio in Britain. The company announced in February that it broke even in Britain for the first time in the six months ended December.
In the United States, the company’s launch appears to be more advanced than previously thought.
The company says it has expanded into the south-east of the country through the Florida-based Publix chain of supermarkets with its products now in 1100 stores primarily in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas from March this year.
The company says it has increased its marketing spend in the current six months and has a new advertising campaign underway involving TV, radio, digital and social media channels.
Mr Ryland says it hasn’t been plain sailing for A2 in America. It had to replace its US chief executive after the first one became ill – and “it’s had its stop/start moments.
“They seem to be good at reassessing and then coming up with an appropriate strategy and then executing on it,” he says.
The company is also planning to expand in South East Asia and has appointed Michael Bracka, who has previously worked for companies such as Mars, Kellogg, Manassen Foods and Freedom Foods which was once A2’s major shareholder, as its business development manager for emerging markets.

[hardt]

I just loved the half on half comparison chart they have in there, strengthens the case that they have under estimated 2H earnings IMO

They have always under forecast, hard to disappoint the market when you provide it with moderate expectations...

[Snow Leopard]

On my almost annual trip to Little Blighty on the Down (UK) and my informal survey suggests that A2 Milk has not made much headway since last year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Informal survey time again.
A2 have smaller cartoons and less shelf space in the supermarkets
But it is still on the shelves.

ATM Share price chart is a thing of great beauty.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bjauck]

Informal survey time again.
A2 have smaller cartoons and less shelf space in the supermarkets
But it is still on the shelves.

ATM Share price chart is a thing of great beauty.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

With the costs of their government's decision to quit their major trading market (the EU single market) yet to be fully reflected in consumers' purchasing power, going forward, I am imagining there could be a shrinking British market for premium brands such as A2...

Brexit latest: Consumer confidence declines in April
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7705046.html

[hardt]

With the costs of their government's decision to quit their major trading market (the EU single market) yet to be fully reflected in consumers' purchasing power, going forward, I am imagining there could be a shrinking British market for premium brands such as A2...

Brexit latest: Consumer confidence declines in April
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7705046.html

UK and USA contribute less than 5% of total group sales combined... if we ceased operations of these two segments, A2MC earnings would increase.

[sb9]

We're entering some uncharted territories price wise. Sure those that attended that Macquarie presentation see great value in this company.

[couta1]

We're entering some uncharted territories price wise. Sure those that attended that Macquarie presentation see great value in this company.

With a PE of around 44,ask yourself, would you buy at current prices? Has run ahead of its fundamental value IMO.As KW mentioned on the other forum, don't buy the rumour but rather the fact after the next results announcement at a much cheaper price than the current one.