ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

Good call switching HLG and AIR into ATM over last week or so. My rating HHH. (Happy hound holder) on those two. The way they keep my food bowl topped up is very pleasant

Reckon $10 bucks my year end?

Who knows mate but I'm very happy to ride the momentum, the trend is your friend until the bend in the end Confirmed 3 day breech of the 30 day MA would be my signal to reduce and certainly not at any stage before that.

[Pixelator]

Just picked up some at 7.10.

Probably mine sea weed!! �� Sold 50% of my holding which was bought September 2016 @ $1.98. To often I have been too greedy, needed to rebalance my portfolio from growth to divi stocks anyway...happy to hold the balance. If the cows stay aligned plenty more milk to flow yet.

[Snoopy]

On yesterday's close it trades at 34.8 times average analyst FY18 earnings. This for a company that tripled its EPS last year and by some accounts could double it this year.
Looking further out average analyst EPS growth is in the late 20's % per annum for FY19 and around 20% for FY20 which could be conservative.

Plenty of companies trading on similar multiples on the NZX with far less dynamic growth, e.g. and this is by no means whatsoever an exhaustive list, just examples that spring readily to mind AIA, POT, and FPH.
AIA 2018 PE 30, growth rates in eps for FY18, FY19 and Fy20 -23%, 5% and 5% respectively
POT 2018 PE 34 growth rates in eps for Fy18, FY19 and FY20 6% 8% and 6% respectively
FPH 2018 PE 38 growth rates in eps for FY18, FY19 & FY20 13%, 17% and 18% respectively
Source: All figures are average analyst numbers directly from 4traders.

ATM expensive compared to the growth rates of these companies or is it a case that some on here are not understanding how to price high growth companies ?, you folks be the judge ? Disc: Very happy holder !

Earnings growth for FY2018 to FY2020.

2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 288%

A 288% incremental increase in the A2 cow herd in just three years is quite a few female calves to born. If half the cows born are female we are talking about:

2 x 288% = a 576% increase in A2 cows to be born.

And 'new' cows won't be ready top calve (compound in accounting terms) until 24 months is up, at the very earliest. So all the required growth needed to have started two years ago. You can't just rack the growth up year by year in cows by putting them on a spreadsheet Beagle. And I still have yet to factor in the removing of the old cows at the other end of their production life. One day you should venture south of the Bombay Hills, and have a look at a real cow. Then you will find out why your attempt to create one on your 3D printer hasn't worked!

SNOOPY

[see weed]

Probably mine sea weed!! �� Sold 50% of my holding which was bought September 2016 @ $1.98. To often I have been too greedy, needed to rebalance my portfolio from growth to divi stocks anyway...happy to hold the balance. If the cows stay aligned plenty more milk to flow yet.

That's right. And the shares you bought off me at 1.98 I bought a year earlier at 50c. I did the same as you and sold 91,000 @2.38 to 2.52 last Feb., to buy div stocks, but the a2 bus left me behind, and will start picking up more a2 on the lows.

[Snow Leopard]

Earnings growth for FY2018 to FY2020.

2 x 1.2 x 1.2 = 288%

A 288% incremental increase in the A2 cow herd in just three years is quite a few female calves to born...

While you probably do need to double the herd size to double the raw milk produced (although I hear a rumour that they are talking of getting the cows to work weekends and do overtime!) and the actual sales revenue is probably closely correlated to this (exchange rates, product mix, usw, dll, etc) sales and earnings are not directly related.

I am fairly confident that FY16 to FY17 they about tripled profits on a less than 60% increase in sales.

Hopefully that sort of thing will continue for a few years or more.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[peat]

You can't just rack the growth up year by year in cows by putting them on a spreadsheet

SNOOPY

Lol
I did some homework recently on the gene and this is very basic Mendelian genetics. Detect your A2 bull, and put it with a A2 cow and bingo. A2 calf.
But if you dont breed your A1's (with a view to becoming entirely A2) then your overall milk production will go down initially.
I was investigating whether this A2 concept could be franchised out to other countries etc, and i dont believe it can because you cant own the A2 gene. Its naturally occurring.

[BlackPeter]

Lol
I did some homework recently on the gene and this is very basic Mendelian genetics. Detect your A2 bull, and put it with a A2 cow and bingo. A2 calf.
But if you dont breed your A1's (with a view to becoming entirely A2) then your overall milk production will go down initially.
I was investigating whether this A2 concept could be franchised out to other countries etc, and i dont believe it can because you cant own the A2 gene. Its naturally occurring.

Correct - you can't protect the A2 gene - otherwise you would have IP on humans ; However - there is a lot of protected IP around the methods to test for the A2 status of a herd ... and I believe that the term "A2-milk" is protected as well.

Not good to have A2-milk if you can't prove it and if you can't call it "A2".

[mondograss]

Not good to have A2-milk if you can't prove it and if you can't call it "A2".

A1-free milk?

[Snoopy]

While you probably do need to double the herd size to double the raw milk produced (although I hear a rumour that they are talking of getting the cows to work weekends and do overtime!) and the actual sales revenue is probably closely correlated to this (exchange rates, product mix, usw, dll, etc) sales and earnings are not directly related.

I am fairly confident that FY16 to FY17 they about tripled profits on a less than 60% increase in sales.

Hopefully that sort of thing will continue for a few years or more.

There may be more profit in selling A2 direct to supermarkets in China, rather than through the Daigou sales channels?
Maybe A2 can now sell direct to consumers over the web , boosting profits again?
Maybe the Daigou sales channels will start to promote other brands instead of A2, if A2 market direct?

Yes you don't necessarily have to double sales to double profits. But I would say there are quite a few unknowns as to how the changes in sales channels will work for A2 in the future.

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

A1-free milk?

not specific enough. A glass of water is A1-free as well and so is soya milk or coconut milk. None of them contain A2, though.