ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[blobbles]

I have just been looking at some population numbers in China in the 1980s following the introduction of the one child policy. Taking the first decade of the policy, there were around 223m live births in China. A rough estimate is that the ratio of males vs females was 120/100. So it could be assumed around 101 million females were born in China in that decade. These are now women of 23-33 years old and are and will be the young mothers in the next few years.
A majority of these women, according to a Chinese guy that I work with, will not have any siblings so will fall into the recently announced relaxation of the one child policy. No doubt a fair percentage of them will want to have more than one child. I am not going to guess what percentage but whatever it will be, it is clear the numbers are huge.
This can only be a positive for infant formula manufacturers, including ATM.

Discl: Happy holder and accumulator

Don't be so sure, though it is a traditional/cultural drive to reproduce in China, there are plenty of other factors in today's society that may make that difficult. For a start, the pollution of everything from food to air to water to dust etc etc is likely to drive down reproduction rates. If you include lifestyle/health factors it will likely drop as well. For instance did you know that over 11% of the adult population of China now has diabetes? Environmental/lifestyle related reproductive disorders (like PCOS or others) are growing at alarming rates, far exceeding healthy population statistics. On top of this education in China is now horrifically expensive for your average person, sometimes consuming 50% of their disposable income or more, for an education that is great on the basics (reading/writing/arithmetic) but short on quality above this. The two very strong ideas in Chinese minds (reproducing and educating their offspring to the highest level) are likely to crash into one another as more babies means higher costs.

[Scottman]

thanks Blobbles. Certainly lots of factors to consider.

[MAC]

ATM are offering free milk voucher trials in the UK, nice marketing, be even nicer if the link worked.

https://www.cloudfreebies.co.uk/2013...cher-download/

[clip]

link works for me, it runs through facebook maybe you need to have a/be logged in to facebook?

[Ginger_steps_]

A2 formula now on our shelves in tiny South West Rocks, NSW - terribly presented by the staff however. Price was $26 where the competition sells anywhere from $13 - $23. Anyway I take it as a good sign just being on our shelves. The A2 milk also seems to be selling more these days - I couldnt even buy my full cream the other day as it was sold out . Hoping to see a FNP like rise sometime in 2014.

[blackcap]

A2 formula now on our shelves in tiny South West Rocks, NSW - terribly presented by the staff however. Price was $26 where the competition sells anywhere from $13 - $23. Anyway I take it as a good sign just being on our shelves. The A2 milk also seems to be selling more these days - I couldnt even buy my full cream the other day as it was sold out . Hoping to see a FNP like rise sometime in 2014.

Just anecdotally off course but my local countdown sells the stuff too. It happens that when I go to buy it it is often not on the shelf because it has run out. So I ask the staff if they can get me some. They do but I have to remind them to please re-stock the shelves. With a bit of grumbling they then do this. There was only one slot for A2, but recently I have seen that staff have "squashed in" another row of A2. I take this as a good sign. I do feel they get let down by their partners "supermarkets" but that is probably across the board.

[MAC]

Just anecdotally off course but my local countdown sells the stuff too. It happens that when I go to buy it it is often not on the shelf because it has run out. So I ask the staff if they can get me some. They do but I have to remind them to please re-stock the shelves. With a bit of grumbling they then do this. There was only one slot for A2, but recently I have seen that staff have "squashed in" another row of A2. I take this as a good sign. I do feel they get let down by their partners "supermarkets" but that is probably across the board.

Have had the same problem here in Christchurch with it being sold out quite frequently, but perhaps it's a good thing if all the local A2 production goes into Chinese export platinum, the Synlait factory is nearby too perhaps sucking us dry.

[Ginger_steps_]

Just anecdotally off course but my local countdown sells the stuff too. It happens that when I go to buy it it is often not on the shelf because it has run out. So I ask the staff if they can get me some. They do but I have to remind them to please re-stock the shelves. With a bit of grumbling they then do this. There was only one slot for A2, but recently I have seen that staff have "squashed in" another row of A2. I take this as a good sign. I do feel they get let down by their partners "supermarkets" but that is probably across the board.

I will test them out and ask for some next time they are empty. They do only seem to stock the shelves at night. I might have a grumble at how the infant formula was hidden out of sight behind the follow on formula....

[clip]

Nice to see A2 mentioned today in Forsyth Barr's seven stocks to watch for 2014
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...investors-told

[MAC]

Nice to see A2 mentioned today in Forsyth Barr's seven stocks to watch for 2014
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...investors-told

It's always interesting too when the brokers start to talk about a company as being a potential merger and acquisition target.

It would be easy to imagine that at some point they may gain the attention of the big players like Nestle etc, but I hope not, I'd rather be a long term holder, lots of steady growth yet to come over the next few years.