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23-02-2018, 04:03 PM
#7831
Originally Posted by minimoke
I like the bit where they have a stated preference to keep the $240m war chest intact for future possible capital purposes rather than handing back to shareholders. On the basis they can do a better job on capital return than a shareholder could if they got a dividend. So maybe there is a plant purchase in China on the horizon
Just don't let Fonterra make the decision on any purchase.................
I just realised that most of the, shall we say, just to be nice, lesser performing companies in this country, all start with F. Fletchers, Fairfax, Fonterra - and don't forget Feltex and Fortex! There you go - be wary of ever buying anything starting with an 'F'!!
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23-02-2018, 04:08 PM
#7832
Originally Posted by Ted2
Just don't let Fonterra make the decision on any purchase.................
I just realised that most of the, shall we say, just to be nice, lesser performing companies in this country, all start with F. Fletchers, Fairfax, Fonterra - and don't forget Feltex and Fortex! There you go - be wary of ever buying anything starting with an 'F'!!
Oh my goodness you had me desperately doing a quick check of my portfolio to make sure nothing started with an F lol.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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23-02-2018, 04:13 PM
#7833
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23-02-2018, 04:19 PM
#7834
Fark as Snapiti would say
FPH is the exception here, looking good atm but not quite through the 60DMA yet.
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23-02-2018, 04:56 PM
#7835
Originally Posted by Ted2
Just don't let Fonterra make the decision on any purchase.................
I just realised that most of the, shall we say, just to be nice, lesser performing companies in this country, all start with F. Fletchers, Fairfax, Fonterra - and don't forget Feltex and Fortex! There you go - be wary of ever buying anything starting with an 'F'!!
You know why? The brokers recommending these come from a firm starting with F
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25-02-2018, 08:11 AM
#7836
Seems LIC is onboard too, adding this page to their website
https://www.lic.co.nz/products-and-s.../a2-gene-test/
For the bulls amoung us, it’s all about “happy endings”
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25-02-2018, 07:49 PM
#7837
Also posted on the Synlait page. Interesting re Fonterra.
https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/do...68707/58629275
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25-02-2018, 09:57 PM
#7838
Originally Posted by t.rexjr
And LIC were murmuring about having a public float so lets keep our ears open for that one.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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26-02-2018, 07:16 AM
#7839
Theo Spierings reiterated the fact that developing a supply of milk free from the A1 protein will not be very difficult.
Larger farms will be able to identify A2 only cows and split the herds accordingly. (guessing a lot of tests are going to be bought)
Last edited by hardt; 26-02-2018 at 07:20 AM.
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26-02-2018, 10:08 AM
#7840
Originally Posted by hardt
Theo Spierings reiterated the fact that developing a supply of milk free from the A1 protein will not be very difficult.
Larger farms will be able to identify A2 only cows and split the herds accordingly. (guessing a lot of tests are going to be bought)
About 25% of the NZ dairy herd are Jersey breed. In reply to my query ‘Why not simply test all Jersey milking cows as a quick way to gear up A2 production, Prof Keith Woodford from Lincoln, a long time A2 advocate in his reply subdivided Jerseys into 3 categories, and said ‘Approximately 66% of NZ Jerseys are A2, 53% for Kiwi Cross, and 44% for Friesians.
A2 herds can come from any breed, but the difference between the breeds is significant in terms of length of time to complete the conversion.
In my opinion, the current situation is, to borrow from Mr Churchill, just the end of the beginning. it is easy to get a good supply of A2 where a farmer or farm group have multiple herds but a long journey where a farmer has only one farm. Given this situation, China and America can produce considerable amounts of milk quickly, but for Europe it will be a long journey.’
so, as Keith says, it can be done but individual cow testing and certification is still required.
LIC, Ambreed and others have long been able to offer A2 genetics. It’s more about dairy farmer uptake and their decision to make a major change to their dairy setup, as A2 certification then requires total separation, similar to deciding to go ‘organic’. In reality it is a whole herd or nothing situation, so it is the larger farmers or groups with several farms ina position to fast-track conversion. They can assign one whole farm as A2, then select A2 certified cows from their existing herds. The breeding option takes 6 to 10 years, and remains the long term option.
Keep in mind, all of Synlait’s present A2 production is supplied by just 60 farms. There are about 12,000 total dairy milk suppliers in NZ, and about 5,000 in Australia.
For Fonterra, it is the long term outlook. They have to manage the A2 message to their dairy farmers so their present market supply remains intact and unaffected. At the same time, they need to respond to the market demand generated by the perceived ‘more healthy’ A2 milk option, and be able to supply mainstream demand WORLDWIDE.
ATM is in the box seat at the moment, but it would be naive to think that advantage will last forever. Other brands touting the ‘healthy option’ will arise as ‘A1 free’ becomes mainstream, and any gap in supply will be quickly filled by the large dairy farms in US and China. No doubt the ATM patents will come under severe competitive challenge.
A2 is one of only 15 brands approved by Chinese authorities to supply IF to China. Removal of the China ‘one child’ policy and distrust of local suppliers are the drivers of this huge market which accounts for half of all IF global consumption. Long may NZ Inc. enjoy the advantage, but the clock ticks.
discl. Happy ATM holder.
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