ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

If it hadn't been for this news, you would have got some at the low $11 mark, this stock needs regular news to prop the price up.

...regular good news Couts .....not like that ‘bad’ announcement a while ago

[couta1]

...regular good news Couts .....not like that ‘bad’ announcement a while ago

Oh yeah, my bad. PS-We need to hit 920 mill at year end to keep the price where it is now, closer to 900 mill and it will get hammered.PPS-Probably be about 950 mill so no worries aye.

[NZSilver]

Oh yeah, my bad. PS-We need to hit 920 mill at year end to keep the price where it is now, closer to 900 mill and it will get hammered.PPS-Probably be about 950 mill so no worries aye.

I'm completely with you, I think people are expecting 920 million at least, anything less and and we will see prices go down. I have calculated based on historical comparisons between quarters they could potentially hit 947 million (basically 950), however I would have expected a trading update by now, and surely the update today would have been a good chance to release a revised forecast if there was one to be had. So going on the lack of updates, I think we are likely to see somewhere between that 900-920 mark, which will maintain the current share price between 10.50-11.50. However there are more macro issues currently developing around the world so potentially we will see downward pressure over the next few months.

[Nasi Goreng]

Well based on the update 6-7 weeks ago, you have got to be expecting between 900-920M. What are the market rules here? If revenue were to be say 895M or 925M, would ATM need to provide an update?

[Ggcc]

I agree. I am expecting just what the company said they would achieve in regards to their turnover. If it would be above that figure I would be pleasantly surprised.

[tipsy]

Well based on the update 6-7 weeks ago, you have got to be expecting between 900-920M. What are the market rules here? If revenue were to be say 895M or 925M, would ATM need to provide an update?

Yes.

Any known material information must be released immediately to the NZX.

The following information is likely to be Material Information under listing rule 10.1.1:

- a change in the issuers financial forecast or expectation

[winner69]

Yes.

Any known material information must be released immediately to the NZX.

The following information is likely to be Material Information under listing rule 10.1.1:

- a change in the issuers financial forecast or expectation

“Material information” means information in relation to an issuer that:

• a reasonable person would expect, if it were generally available to the market, to have a material effect on the price of the issuer’s quoted securities


Then you get into the definition of a reasonable person

I would hazard a guess that in such matters many on here are ‘unreasonable’ if you get the gist of what I’m saying .....like being impatient and almost wanting weekly updates.

One guideline out there about nateriality is if earnings are likely to be 10% to 15% different from guidance / market expectations (consensus forecasts)

[Beagle]

FWIW anything greater than a 10% variance from forecast is generally something that is considered to be "material" but to confuse things one could easily take one of two views regarding the full year forecast of $900 - $920m. Is that 10% variance around the annual forecast, i.e. a variance one way or the other of $90m plus or a 10% variance around the current quarter forecast seeing as we already know what the nine months sales are ? I think its the latter but the strict interpretation of NZX rules could be the former so I think that's all about as clear as mud. We'll all know soon enough late next month.

[Timesurfer]

Interestingly, I was at a Fonterra presentation yesterday.
I asked where they sat with the whole A2 milk thing.
After recently getting their fingers somewhat burnt over the "organic milk" fad they are sitting on their hands being cautious with the A2 fad.
Currently they believe it is and will remain a niche market. No doubt time will tell.

[dobby41]

Interestingly, I was at a Fonterra presentation yesterday.
I asked where they sat with the whole A2 milk thing.
After recently getting their fingers somewhat burnt over the "organic milk" fad they are sitting on their hands being cautious with the A2 fad.
Currently they believe it is and will remain a niche market. No doubt time will tell.

It would be interesting to know what % of people care.
I know I don't. I'd drink A2 if it was cheaper than other milk but don't believe there are any health benefits in it for me.
So I agree with Fonterra that it is a niche market but it isn't a trivial market and one that is probably worth pursuing.