AGL - Accordant Group. was previously AWF Madison, Allied...

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[Snoopy]

You might be missing an opportunity. one and 4 week low was $1.72, $1.73 which is pretty much the same as the 5 year low.

Five years ago Madison had only just been acquired (no contribution to earnings in November 2013), AbsoluteIT was not on the radar, Christchurch was in the midst of ramping up an unprecedented construction boom, and Simon Hull was still on the end of his loudspeaker saying construction was an unprecedented opportunity for AWF. You could hardly imagine how different the underlying business is today. So I would caution any thoughts that returning to a share price threshold last touched five years ago is significant.

SNOOPY

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[Snoopy]

Yup, and back then SP was $2.80. Since then they have enjoyed a construction boom, the fruits of the Madison purchase and the spoils from Absolute IT. Good times. And now SP is $1.85

Now I am not sure if your original comment about not picking up AWF at a near five year low was sarcasm, or if you genuinely thought that $1.70 was a kind of 'chart bottom' to pick!

The main point I was trying to make was that the 'rotting of the construction industry'' in boom times was not what Mr Market expected. In that context it is not so surprising that with the 'AWF division' being the flagship of the company and taking such a big hit that long term confidence in the future of AWF has reduced (i.e share price has gone down).

SNOOPY

[minimoke]

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[Snoopy]

If you have faith in the AWF story then it seems to me that buying at what appears to be the bottom of the market is a good time to buy.

Agree

That people hold this dog surprises me - SP is about the same level as it was back in 2006.

I didn't hold my AWF shares in 2006. I don't care what the share price was in 2006. Investments should always be forward looking, albeit with a backwards glance to see if the forward looking claims look achievable.

That people don't take their dividend money and run surprises me. That these people don't buy in market lows surprises me

In my assessment buying into the DRP is buying at the market low. Albeit maybe not right at the bottom. But close enough, and all such buys are 'brokerage free'. If the share price starts to approach what I call 'fair value' then I will probably pull out of the DRP and take all cash again. In the past I have taken the minimoke view. That is take all the dividend money, bank it, and if I want to later buy back in at a price I choose, hopefully below the shares offered in the DRP.

But when a share like AWF:

1/ looks close to rock bottom.
2/ are on record as saying they want to raise capital to pay down debt.

Then, I think that 'buying low' and helping the company to 'raise capital' is one better than 'just buying low'. Remember it was the independent report commissioned by management suggested that dividends could be maintained if a DRP was introduced. Management were all set to cut the dividend. I am happy to go along with this plan as it satisfies both:

1/ Investors like me who can see the growth prospects going forwards. AND
2/ Pure yield investors who want to take all their dividend in cash.

Both categories of investors now have a stake in keeping the AWF share price up by not selling!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

It has done more than that. Share sales on Friday at $1.85, up 12c. A really robust performance in this shifty market. And the ex date isn't until November 19th

share price in the 160’s now

Lower than when they made the half year announcement

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[Snoopy]

I am doing what the directors (or at least the 'shareholding directors' like Simon Hull) are doing Winner. I am taking up the maximum shares I can through the dividend reinvestment plan. As for buying more on market, I will keep my gunpowder dry a little longer. This 'controlled reduction' (?) to providing workers for construction projects could be a permanent hit to the AWF side of the business.

As Simon Bennett said in the Interim Report for FY2019:
"It is clear that there is opportunity in the construction sector and that, well-managed, the opportunity exists to deploy large numbers of migrant workers. We will be conservative in the degree to which we continue to participate for the foreseeable future."

If so that recovery I am always predicting could be to a lower level than I was thinking. I see that under the latest restricted share scheme, presumably to incentivise the employees, that the 2021 to 2014 'in the money' redemption price only needs to be above $1.90. Probably employees going to work and eating their lunch would achieve this. That isn't much of a 'growth vision' for senior management to grapple with.

You might be missing an opportunity. one and 4 week low was $1.72, $1.73 which is pretty much the same as the 5 year low.

Well I didn't miss the opportunity. Managed to top up at $1.61 over the Christmas break. Average holding price now $2.13, so still 'out of the money' (not counting dividends). Not sure when I will be back in the black in capital terms, but it might have been yesterday. Buyers at $1.71 and sellers at $2.18! That is a pretty big spread, although I see things have come down to earth with the share trading at $1.70 on 'huge volume' (40,000 shares) today.

No wonder the share price is $1.73 ...though it’ll go up today as punters ‘buy’ the 8 cent divie

At least the directors have faith ...buying more to support the share price.

You need to help them out Snoops and buy some more

Have now 'done my bit' Winner, but feeling like a thief at the price I bought those shares at. Perhaps I need to turn myself in at the cop shop? I might get home detention! Then I could lie on the doghouse and spend more time studying AWF.

SNOOPY

[percy]

I agree you should be locked up.
Perhaps at a nice place where the "guards " wear nice long white coats.!.
Ha ha hhee hheee they have come to take me away.....lol.