AGL - Accordant Group. was previously AWF Madison, Allied...

[Snoopy]

Snoops ...surely in saying that Fy18 Profit will be lower than prior year they mean it will be less than $5.9m - which is the reported prior year profit. Can’t be anything else.

Go to the video feed of AGM 2017 Winner

http://www.awfmadison.co.nz/video-aw...ting-july-2017

Fast forward to 21 minutes into the presentation, and listen for the next minute and a bit. Simon Bennett says that the start point for growth is the 'combined business', as though it was owned for the full year. You may be right and I may be wrong. But I will be horribly disappointed if Bennett has done a back flip and retreated to the actual profit figure for FY2017 as a growth baseline.

If that $7.5m if IT division had been there all year is meaningful (ie normalised or something) than FY18 at less than $5.9m is a shocker eh (down 20% plus)

Less than $5.9m will be a shocker. But the company would still be financially strong enough to pay a steady dividend, because capital requirements going forwards are not great.
A reduction in profit to $7m is more what I would expect. Not sure how the earn out payment for Absolute IT ($3.42m estimated, p55 AR2017) will affect the declared profit, but that forecast payment is a oncer.

I am still picking $7m, excluding any one off payments.

Cash flows ‘remain strong’ so maybe the 16 cent plus dividend will be maintained ....while still hoping that the ‘resilience’ and ‘optimism’ they talk about brings better results in the future.

I am keeping the faith, until results show otherwise.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

From a disclosure point of view if a company says ‘lower than prior period’ that means lower than what was reported ...unless they state something more specific which they did not in that latest announcement. I think they would be in trouble with the authorities if they had a different prior period number than what was reported.

Seeing H1 profit was down 13% even though it included 6 months of IT business (not in prior period eh) being 20% down or thereabouts for the full year seems a pretty reasonable outcome. In other words a shocker.

You may be right but i’ll put my money on less than $5.9m

Also worth considering - seeing companies can’t help themselves boasting if the number was $7m wouldn’t they be touting a 20% increase in profits over prior year? instead of below prior year. Think about it.

I think the current share price says it is lower than $5.9m

[winner69]

Snoops - ‘A reduction in profit to $7m is more what I would expect. Not sure how the earn out payment for Absolute IT ($3.42m estimated, p55 AR2017) will affect the declared profit, but that forecast payment is a oncer.’

Accounted for 2017 Accounts

If ‘earned’ only affects cash flow.

Should only adversely impact profitability if more than $3.4m is ‘earnt’ (Ie they under estimated the liability) - then again if the hurdles weren’t reach that would have a favourable impact.

Was based on performance to Nov 2017 so you would think whatever it is to be would be allowed for in their profit below prior period guidance.

That’s how I see it anyway

[winner69]

Snoops - I hadn’t realised how made that first half really was

That Absolute IT made $1.508m (nothing pcp)

Means rest of Group made $1.910m compared to $3.930 in pcp

Jeez that’s a 50% odd earnings decline from the two old divisions

Pretty bad .....no, more than pretty bad .....no wonder they are saying they are going to make less than $5.9m for the full year (including Absolute IT)

[winner69]

...and If they were to achieve $5.9m in Fy18 there would have been a huge growth in AWF/Madison earnings compared to pcp ...maybe this Census bonanza they harp on about is helping ......but FY18 heaps less than pcp.

Absolute IT putting a little credibility into the performance this year.

[winner69]

Share price peaked $3.20 last May about the time of full year results and subsequent presentations

Jeez nearly down 50% since

Punters didn’t believe the rhetoric about ‘resiliance’ and ‘growth’ and ‘optimism’ and that stuff

Maybe FY2019 will be the year ...not of ‘consolidation’ but of ‘growth’ as this ‘resiliance’ shines through.

Might be tempted if the May announcement is a real shocker

[percy]

AWF went from a growth stock to a dividend stock,and is now a stock whose dividend appears to be under threat.
The current and the previous CEO did not make a lot of headway.
I keep wondering whether the controlling shareholder keeps holding the company back.?

[winner69]

AWF went from a growth stock to a dividend stock,and is now a stock whose dividend appears to be under threat.
The current and the previous CEO did not make a lot of headway.
I keep wondering whether the controlling shareholder keeps holding the company back.?

Could well be the case percy

Not always good having one big controlling shareholder is it ...esp one who is Managing Director

[percy]

Could well be the case percy

Not always good having one big controlling shareholder is it ...esp one who is Managing Director

As always arguments for and against.
In this case it looks as though it is working against the company.

The shareholder list makes for interesting reading,but unfortunately they remain just back seat passengers.Pity.
I doubt I will buy back in while the controlling shareholder remains in control.

[Snoopy]

Not always good having one big controlling shareholder is it ...esp one who is Managing Director.

You may be confusing the two Simons Winner. The controlling shareholder is Simon Hull with a 51.7% stake. Simon Hull is on the board, but has no day to day role in the company any more. The CEO is Simon Bennett. It is easy to confuse the two because although they are unrelated, at a casual glance they look quite similar!

SNOOPY