Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[fish]

thx phaedrus-your chart is clear and now is not the time to buy whilst they are on a steep downtrend .

[ananda77]

...cen approaching key-support @575

...set your cen trading strategy

Indicators:

DMI40
W%R150


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[Phaedrus]

Chart update. CEN has now broken below its long-term trendline, confirming the medium-term trendline break "Sell" signal posted on 12/10/2005. (Medium-term trendlines are shown in magenta)

[duncan macgregor]

PHAEDRUS, My time line system is in total agreement. If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself.
Lets have a bit of fun in hindesight and compare. 2001 = $2.64,
2002 = $3.16, 2003 = $3.79, 2004 = $4.54, 2005 = $5.44, 2006 = $6.52,
Jan 2007 I require the sp to be $7,82 less what ever level i placed my stop loss. I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio. It has been a great share to hold long term i chose TPW to best it in this sector, which is proving so far to be the better choice from when i bought in oct 2004 at an average $4.84. macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
You are only just now telling us about yours!

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Ah yes Duncan, but there is a big difference.
I posted my Sell signal way back when it was triggered.
You are only just now telling us about yours!

PHAEDRUS, My one has not triggered so far but it is close.
Draw the line at jan 2006 at$6.52 to jan 2007 at $7.82 then allow with a long term hold like this a 10pc stop loss. I am not saying i am right or wrong i dont hold this share but that would be my sell point. I think that a close to seven year hold at 20pc plus dividends deserves a bit of leeway with a 10pc stop loss. If your system says sell, then sell, my system says hold on close watch. What i found interesting is the closeness of the sell point after six and a half years. macdunk

macdunk

[Phaedrus]

"My time line system is in total agreement"
Well, no it's not, actually.

"If you take the starting price at $2-20 as the starting point at the jan 2000 year then draw a 20pc time line in advance look at all the trouble you would save yourself"
Well Duncan, you would certainly have saved yourself all the trouble of holding CEN for 6 years! Using the startpoint specified above, you would have sold in 2000!

"My one has not triggered so far but it is close...... I would be holding with it on close watch at this moment in a long term portfolio".
No you wouldn't. You would have been flicked out in 2000 - and about ten times since then. The current price is WAY below your "timeline" - even if you totally disregard all previous breaks.

"It has been a great share to hold long term" It certainly has. Trouble is, with your "timeline" system, you would not have held it long term.

Duncan, I have said this before, but what you have here is an idea, rather than a system. The whole thing swings from a completely arbitrary start point (Why Jan 2000? Why $6.52?) and runs up at a completely arbitrary slope (Why 20%?) This total lack of precise definition enables you to draw a "timeline" pretty much anywhere you want to.

It is absurdly easy for you to relocate your timeline to prove/disprove anything you like. All you have to do is shift the start point.

[duncan macgregor]

PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor about Contact

Now is a good time to buy. The sp for a moment dropped below TPW sp giving me a real buy signal. The market swings to high some times and to low others with the basic fundamentals unchanged. I was dead right picking trust power over cen at the time, now it looks like cen will join my portfolio. macdunk

Look Phaedrus you may think you are so clever with your graphs and rigourous approach to buying and selling but all this charting is so yesterday. Look at the brilliant technical analysis of this deluded scotsman, you just can not argue with such an original approach as that.
Look timelines (tm) are easy and make you millions you just have to know when to ignore them. You forgot the 10pc leeway, and he forgot I raise the line as the price exceeds 20% pa.

So leave the man alone otherwise he might post again and no one wants that, do we?

Disc: All in fun and sarcasm

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

PHAEDRUS, Absolute one eyed rubbish. The lengths you go to with all the twisted facts, to prove someone wrong does you no credit. You Miss out the stop loss level to try and prove your arguement why dont you do it again, or be big enough to say you are wrong. You tried the same rubbish with TPW go back to your charts and have another go. In all fairness i would not have bought CEN at that time it was only the point where you started your long term trend. If you look at the chart CEN was on a confirmed downtrend at your start point which i definately would not buy in to. it was only to show you how close our exit signals were from your start time, not mine. I remember the lengths you went to to discredit a time line system it seems you think it steals your thunder, grow tall man dont be petty.
I do like your charts keep them coming but dont talk rubbish. macdunk

But first remove the plank from thine own eye.