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  1. #31
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

    CEN bounced off the long term trend line when it hit a low of $7.30 last week and broke the short term down trend line the following day.
    As it put on a few cents yesterday hopefully (for I have bought some) it will continue the long term uptrend for some time to come.
    Oh well! Although I am still in and a little way off being stopped out
    I am not impressed!
    om mani peme hum

  2. #32
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    A curious thing to me is that/was that the day CEN had its main big drop the price of its parent Origin Energy in Australia didn't change at all despite the Australian market going down overall and despite the Press reflecting news from Australia in a tiny article top left of a business page that not only was CEN getting savaged by bad publicity from its new CEO but the Origin Bass Strait oil/gas was running out rapidly.
    How come Origin is supported while its smaller subsidiary isn't?
    Tends to lend credence to the theory that Origin is not averse to trashing CEN's price so it can get the other 49% cheaply.
    The other curious thing is why concentrate so hard on what will happen "within 4 years" at the expense of the near future?
    What about the next 2 years of financial data some of which has passed without the data yet coming out. I don't invest on the basis of things that will happen in 3 to 4 years - who does? Cash flow time preference discounting assigns less importance to 3 to 4 years out than it does to the near future. Did David Hunt learn a different sort of time preference where the medium distant future is more important than today tomorrow?
    If he's talking about the CEN quarterly result coming out "by the end of October" then don't the NZX listing rules oblige him to give a clear profit warning?
    Mr. Hunt needs to clarify the situation and who he is actually working for. Maybe the NZX need to run a query on CEN?

  3. #33
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    Continuous disclosure

    16.10.05


    It wasn't quite a profit warning, but Contact Energy shareholders were this week cautioned that the past few years of soaring profit growth may be over. And so the share price of one of New Zealand's most popular listed companies started moving downhill.

    Contact is moving into a tougher business scene, largely because of the higher cost of natural gas, which the energy company uses to fire its power stations. Cheap Maui gas is running down, so its stations will soon be powered with gas from smaller, more expensive fields.

    Contact is also talking up the prospects of importing gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

    With a market capitalisation of more than $4 billion, Contact is the second-biggest company listed on the NZX. Privatised in 1999, it is one of New Zealand's most widely held stocks, with 95,000 shareholders.

    New chief executive David Hunt took over this month, replacing Steve Barrett, who was a representative of former 51 per cent shareholder Edison Mission. Edison sold its stake in Contact last year to Australian energy giant Origin.

    Since Contact is looking for new supplies of gas, Origin may not be such a bad owner to have, since it is heavily involved in the "upstream" oil and gas exploration and production sector.

    Company chairman Grant King told shareholders at the annual meeting in Auckland on Wednesday that performance over recent years had been marked by strong earnings growth thanks to rising energy prices. "Contact expects this dynamic to support continued earnings growth this financial year, albeit with some flattening off in momentum," he said.

    Contact shares hit a high of $8 each in early July, rising from a six-month low of $6.81 in May.

    The company's dampening-down of shareholder expectations at the Auckland meeting sent its share price down 9c.

    The next day things weren't much better, with the price declining again - this time 26c. Yesterday it recovered 14c to $7.16.

    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  4. #34
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    Interesting article, rmb. But it would be helpful if you named the source. Was it in one of the weekend papers or 'orl yer own wurk'?

  5. #35
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    "Continuous disclosure" is a name the Herald adds to some of it's business articles.
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  6. #36
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    Just had a notice of price increase from my CEN owned power supplier. It's intentionally dense and very difficult to penetrate but after comparing with a past document it seems that they've put up one rate by 8% and another by 2%. And then they sold something yesterday for a few mill. Can't be all bad.
    Reminds me of an old cartoon of Sir James Wattie addressing his company's AGM.
    "In the continual and difficult struggle with soaring wage demands, strikes, cost increases and general inflation, government regulation and obstruction, I have to report that we have again overlapped a little and will be raising dividend again this year."

  7. #37
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    Chart update.

  8. #38
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    Crikey! Back to where it was a year ago.

    Thanks Phaedrus.
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  9. #39
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    do charts predict the bottom?

  10. #40
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    No. What they can do though is show us when the downtrend begins to weaken and when it ends. That's all you need to know - there is no need for predictions.

    "Technical analysis is the study of past market behaviour to determine the current state or condition of the market" Rotella 1992.

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