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30-03-2018, 06:12 PM
#1521
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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31-03-2018, 10:38 AM
#1522
Originally Posted by percy
Electric vehicles will not run on fresh air.
They may need electricity.
So perhaps the projected numbers of electric vehicles,may help us work out future power demands.?
I would expect 1 million electric vehicles plugged into the grid overnight could lead to power black outs.
I would also expect an electric bus/train would require a lot more power than a small Toyota.
I am noticing a growing number of battery bikes on the roads too.
Your long term vision of 1 million EVs may be about right Percy. But we have a l-o-n-g way to go to reach that point. The government's goal is to have 64,000 EVs on the road by the end of 2021. In September 2017 there were only 4541 EVs on the road! I did some work on the possible implications of EV uptake on the Mercury thread under the 'Fraser's Fantasy' sub heading (posts 1004, 1005, 1016). I worked out that by 2021, Mercury might expect a $2.256m jump in profit by 2021 as a result. Worth having but not game changing. Contact haven't been so active in promoting EVs, but no doubt they can put in place an incentive scheme similar to Mercury's very quickly if it makes market sense. So any prospective annual profit jump for Contact would be 'ballpark similar'.
I wouldn't expect any power black outs from plugging in EVs overnight. There is plenty of time to put new generation in place to avoid that. I would be more concerned about too many people plugging in their EVs during the day into quickchargers at supermarkets during the winter months. That could exasperate the peak load problem. I think I recall the new generating capacity required with the long term uptake of EVs is something like 20% of all current power use. So if most recharging was done off peak, it is well within the capacity of the current Transpower and local lines capacity to cope with 1 million EVs without substantial new investment in the existing electricity distribution infrastructure.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 31-03-2018 at 03:28 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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31-03-2018, 03:29 PM
#1523
Generation Station Utilisation: FY2016
The following information I have taken from FY2016. I have chosen this as a representative year because:
1/ It is the first year in which the closure of Otahuhu was expected, so is more likely indicative of future station use patterns than previous years.
2/ The hydrological conditions appear more 'normal' than FY2017.
Contact Energy Hydro |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Clyde |
464MW |
4234GWh |
2289GWh |
54.1% |
Roxburgh |
320MW |
2920GWh |
1802GWh |
61.7% |
Total |
|
|
4091GWh |
Contact Energy Geothermal |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Notes |
Ohaaki |
48MW |
438GWh |
337GWh |
76.9% |
Te Huaka |
28MW |
256GWh |
196GWh |
76.7% |
Completed FY2010 |
Wairakei |
145MW |
1323Wh |
1075GWh |
81.3% |
Poihipi |
65MW |
593GWh |
407GWh |
68.6% |
Te Mihi |
166MW |
1515GWh |
1282GWh |
84.6% |
Completed FY2014 |
Total |
|
|
3297GWh |
Contact Energy Fossil Fuel |
Station Generation Capacity |
Annual Energy Generation Capacity (B) |
Actual Energy Generated (A) |
Station Utilization (A)/(B) |
Stratford Peaker Gas Turbine |
210MW |
1916GWh |
506GWh |
26.4% |
Stratford Combined Cycle |
377MW |
3440GWh |
334GWh |
9.7% |
Te Rapa Gas Turbine |
44MW |
402GWh |
221GWh |
55.0% |
Total |
|
|
1061GWh |
Thus we have a representative grand total generation figure of:
3297GWh + 1061GWh + 4091GWh = 8449GWh
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 31-03-2018 at 04:13 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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31-03-2018, 04:15 PM
#1524
Member
The review announced last week is far reaching and regards electricity as an essential service not a product. That is a change of philosophy and has big implications . I do not know how it will affect those in the electricity industry..
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31-03-2018, 04:20 PM
#1525
CEN valuation FY2017 adjusted for 'thin air capital'
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Thus we have a representative grand total generation figure of:
3297GWh + 1061GWh + 4091GWh = 8449GWh
The budget for constructing Te Mihi (166MW) back in FY2013 was $623m (refer to my post 617).
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Using the scaling factor I derived in post 1514, we can now work out the 'thin air capital' that should now be 'off the books' at Contact Energy:
$494m x 0.74 = $366m
If we assume 45% gearing then Contact could borrow 0.45 x $366m = $165m against that sum.
This means the the money available to construct a new power station, using Contact's off balance sheet funds, is:
$165m + $366m = $531m
It doesn't look like Contact have accumulated enough thin air capital to construct another Te Mihi. But I reckon there might be enough in the kitty to build a 100MW geothermal station. Assuming that station had a utilisation rate of 85%, by how much would the power generating capacity of Contact Energy increase?
Energy Generated by New Station Over one year:
(100MW x 0.85) x 25 x 365 x (1/1000) = 776GWh
776GWh / 8449GWh = 9.2%
So this is the multiplication factor we need to increase the value of CEN shares by if we are to include in that the earnings value of the new station that 'could be built', without recourse to raising new capital from shareholders.
Originally Posted by Snoopy
My normalised 'eps' figure for Contact Energy is a whole of business cycle figure. I have deemed FY2009 as the start of the representative electricity market from here on in.
Financial Year |
CEN Normalised eps |
2009 |
27.0cps |
2010 |
25.3cps |
2011 |
22.4cps |
2012 |
24.6cps |
2013 |
27.5cps |
2014 |
27.1cps |
2015 |
22.0cps |
2016 |
22.2cps |
2017 |
18.7cps |
Multi Year Average |
24.1cps |
CEN Business Cycle share Price Average Value:
= 24.1c / ( 0.72 x 0.06) = $5.58 (based on a 6% gross desired earnings yield before tax). This is the 'fair value' as published in the adjacent table.
Note the above normalised earning valuation of the previous post does not make any allowance for off balance sheet 'thin air capital' that has been accumulated by Contact Energy. Making this adjustment I get a fair value for Contact Energy of:
$5.58 x 1.092 = $6.09
Given that Contact is trading well below that figure, it looks like an 'accumulate' at current market prices. Yet, ever the bargain hunter, I would be on the look out for 20% discount to fair value. That equates to $4.87. I say Contact would be a 'strong buy' should the current market volatility see the share price drop to that level.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 31-03-2018 at 04:53 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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05-04-2018, 01:25 PM
#1526
Junior Member
Growing Electric Vehicles will be a major bonus for the power generators, and solar wont be enough to charge are especially if you are out all day and charge your car over night. Some solar panels don't store much power over the night and they suggests you try use more power during the day, which means in winter it'll probably just power your fridge for half the day.
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05-04-2018, 02:42 PM
#1527
Member
If you buy and sell on the spot with Flick it doesnt matter . The spot at night is usually cheap.Do not use a generator retailer.
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28-05-2018, 09:27 AM
#1528
I know people are important...really important....and I know Bean Counters rate highly.......but I am somewhat surprised to see this as a price sensitive announcement for a power company.
"ADMIN: CEN: Contact announces departure of Chief Financial Officer
08:30a.m.
CEN
28/05/2018 08:30
ADMIN
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Contact Energy Limited
ADMIN: CEN: Contact announces departure of Chief Financial Officer "
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28-05-2018, 05:41 PM
#1529
Originally Posted by RTM
I know people are important...really important....and I know Bean Counters rate highly.......but I am somewhat surprised to see this as a price sensitive announcement for a power company.
"ADMIN: CEN: Contact announces departure of Chief Financial Officer
08:30a.m.
CEN
28/05/2018 08:30
ADMIN
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Contact Energy Limited
ADMIN: CEN: Contact announces departure of Chief Financial Officer "
Haha, it was tagged the same on the asx. I had the same WTF moment as you. Remember it's the exchange, not the company, that deems price sensitivity.
Last quarter report passed without comment here - numbers looked pretty good for Contact.
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15-07-2018, 11:20 AM
#1530
Timely, thanks Gonzo. Our hydro stand us in good stead to help ameliorate future demand, usage, tech but with the Govt reviewing the sector, there has to be a little worry re the possibility of price caps/ intervention etc. And Winston did want to buy them back at one point. He made his point about them being majorly sold off in the first place(Contact ? being the exception).
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