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  1. #2141
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    SP up 51c in last week. What happened to sell off
    Maybe just Maxtrade traded max. Sold all his holding off.

  2. #2142
    Senior Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Yeah was hoping to pick some more up cheaply on the supposed weakness

  3. #2143
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    Blackrock are supposed to be buying & selling the shares involved in their rebalance effective April 19th our time. So whatever is going to happen (or not) is supposed to be scheduled for next week. Time will tell how this plays out.

  4. #2144
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    SP up 51c in last week. What happened to sell off
    Traders jumping the gun, FOMO seeing SP increasing thinking that was the bottom. The sell off hasn't even really been actioned yet. Blackrock will likely try to time holding out most availability until managers can see the market has buyers and increasing SP. I am sure they are happy to see the SP where it is already now up off recent lows!

    A lot of transactions will be off market with brokers at discounted prices. However next Monday/Tuesday NZ time will be when shorters are waiting for. Buy those shares back when supply is saturated and in turn SP will be lower. Its an index fund so proportionally to the global clean energy fund the small amount of CEN and MEL being sold at a lower SP won't be a concern to the fund as a whole really.
    Time will tell, but logic suggests that next week there will be an overabundance of shares to be sold, SP will follow suit until they are all sold (and there is a LOT to be sold off).
    Shorters will likely be looking to buy back in CEN 6.0 - 6.2, and MEL 4.5 - 4.75. Who knows with this amount of shares to be sold it may temporarily drive SP's even lower. Look at what happened on the other end of the scale when all those shares needed to be purchased by the ETF, SP skyrocketed. Likely will do the reverse next week on the downside.

    SP will then probably stabilise back where SP's were trading prior to all of this. CEN 6.25-6.4, MEL 4.75-4.85. Keeping in mind Rio Tinto is still on wind down mode. Given a bit of respite for now but that will be relatively short lived until it comes back to the forefront again.

    Many of the traders looking for growth gains off energy shares will re-evaluate and realise these spikes in our energy companies were somewhat 'artifially driven'. Once corrected, then these energy companies will loose their shine to many, and the share price will bounce around these lower more normalised levels again.

  5. #2145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    At the time of posting the link below stated they held 43,619,902 shares (at 16 March 2021).
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individ...ean-energy-etf
    Checked this URL again. As at 13 April 2021 Blackrock still held 43,506,182 shares. This volume is yet to hit, but a lot of institutions will have lightened up their holdings in advance of buying when the selling occurs.

    The million dollar question is how competitive will the buying be when the majority of these shares are released onto the market, and therefore how much will the price fall (assuming of course that it does)!!

  6. #2146
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    Checked this URL again. As at 13 April 2021 Blackrock still held 43,506,182 shares. This volume is yet to hit, but a lot of institutions will have lightened up their holdings in advance of buying when the selling occurs.

    The million dollar question is how competitive will the buying be when the majority of these shares are released onto the market, and therefore how much will the price fall (assuming of course that it does)!!
    If Blackrock uses dark pool trading, the market price of cen will not be affected at all...

  7. #2147
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    Posted this a week ago on MEL thread - suppose still applies

    覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧-覧覧覧覧-

    Businessdesk has article BlackRock痴 looming sell down of Meridian may never happen

    Quotes a guy from Kernel Wealth who says all the talk is incorrect

    Like this bit -

    典o be frank, most active managers in New Zealand don稚 understand how indices work, he said.
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  8. #2148
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    What happened to the sell off. Haven't seen any large volume of shares traded today yet. I know the trading day isn't over yet but surely they aren't just going to dump them on market end of the day for Mondays opening?

  9. #2149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxtrade View Post
    What happened to the sell off. Haven't seen any large volume of shares traded today yet. I know the trading day isn't over yet but surely they aren't just going to dump them on market end of the day for Mondays opening?
    Dunno. It was your sell-off scenario, so maybe you can tell us?

    Slightly >average volume today, up 4%. Could it really be a pump and dump? Possible head & shoulders forming here? I certainly see resistance at these levels.

    I've sold down my CEN holding by 20% just in case, taking advantage of this afternoon's spike. Next week we'll see...

  10. #2150
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    Trading being extended for 45min for the big event. Stay tuned.

  11. #2151
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    Unbelievable that much support at $7.5 for CEN. Blackrock got away lightly! Surprised buyers set their bids so high? I know to take advantage of picking up the low of the days trade, but at $7.50 didn't end up being much of a 'bargain'.

  12. #2152
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    Looks like shorters have been dealt to - ouch!

  13. #2153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxtrade View Post
    Unbelievable that much support at $7.5 for CEN. Blackrock got away lightly! Surprised buyers set their bids so high? I know to take advantage of picking up the low of the days trade, but at $7.50 didn't end up being much of a 'bargain'.
    This is a showcase the demands for renewable clean energy shares are so high!
    Last edited by Master98; 16-04-2021 at 08:59 PM.

  14. #2154
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371169

    Exec level cashing in (or out depending how you look at it)

  15. #2155
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    Default What happened on share sell down day?

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxtrade View Post
    Unbelievable that much support at $7.5 for CEN. Blackrock got away lightly! Surprised buyers set their bids so high? I know to take advantage of picking up the low of the days trade, but at $7.50 didn't end up being much of a 'bargain'.
    'Blackrock' as a group cover a multitude of different international companies. Given this I thought it was a worthwhile exercise to look at the complete declared picture to see exactly what happened in the sell down. On record are Blackrock's declared peak holdings on 14-01-2021 and their holdings on 20-04-2021 just after the sell down.

    No. Shares Held 20-04-2021 No. Shares Held 14-01-2021 Possible Shares Internally Redistributed
    Aperico Group LLC 177,851 (+100%) 0 177,851
    Blackrock Advisors (UK) Ltd. 7,373,646 (-82.6%) 42,277,344
    Blackrock Asset Management Canada Limited 260,683 (+24.7%) 209,194 51,489
    Blackrock Asset Management Deutscheland AG 5,904,181 (+57.0%) 3,761,194 2,142,987
    Blackrock Asset Management North Asia Limited 4,677 (+443%) 1,056 3,621
    Blackrock Financial Management Inc 109,585 (+261%) 41,985 67,600
    Blackrock Fund Advisors 15,979,436 (-67.1%) 48,497,377
    Blackrock Institutional Trust Co., National Association 5,029,558 (-6.09%) 5,355,835
    Blackrock Investment Management (Australia) Limited 6,116 (+0%) 6,116
    Blackrock Investment Management (UK) Limited 2,878,563 (+1.94%) 2,823,728 54,835
    Blackrock Investment Management LLC 9,634 (+427%) 2,255 7,739
    Blackrock Japan Co. Ltd. 30,101 (+0%) 30,101
    Blackrock Netherlands BV 0 (-100%) 97,535
    Total Percentage Holding 4.866% 14.349%
    Total Holding Possibly Redistributed Internally 2,506,122

    The above table does not take into account the number of shares subscribed to in the $400m cash issue. Such shares were issued on 16th February 2021. The $400m raised from institutional shareholders was from a total pool of $475m raised, with $400m representing proportionately the institutional shareholder base of Contact Energy. In the 16th April press release Contact said:

    "All existing eligible institutional shareholders who bid for their pro-rata allocation of the Placement were allocated at least that amount of new shares."

    Before the cash issue there were 718,565,905 shares on issue.

    The representative institutional shareholder component of that was:

    400/475 x 718,565,905 = 605,108,130

    The total number of new shares issued to institutions at the tender price of $1.70 was:

    $400m / $4.70 = 85.106m new shares

    This represented 85.106 / 605.109 = 14.06% of the pre-existing CEN shares in this owner group. So we can assume that any Blackrock group company that wanted to increase their holding of shares could have boosted their holding by this percentage, if they had wanted to do so.

    There is no evidence in the above table that any of the Blackrock companies took up their entitlement to the maximum. Indeed it would be kind of dumb to do so, knowing that other companies within the group were looking to sell down. So my guess is there was an internal redistribution, of up to 2,506,122 shares from Blackrock's ESG fund, into some of their other funds.

    I had assumed that the Blackrock ESG fund, which was doing the sell down, was purely US based (it looks like as 'Blackrock Fund Advisors'). However, the very large sell down by 'Blackrock Advisors UK Ltd.' would suggest that perhaps some of that fund was UK domiciled? In any event the number of shares sold by those two aforementioned funds totalled 67,421,639 shares. That is far more than I suggested may have been redistributed and reabsorbed by other arms of Blackrock.

    On 22nd April Milford Asset management issued a notice to say that they had bought 25,010,276 CEN shares 'on market'. The timing of this transaction would suggest that those shares were bought from Blackrock. There have been no other institutions declaring they have bought a significant stake since. So my guess is that the remaining 50m odd shares that Blackrock disposed of went to other institutions in such a way that no other institution broke the 5% share ownership threshold that required a declaration.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 06-05-2021 at 11:08 PM.

  16. #2156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    'Blackrock' as a group cover a multitude of different international companies. Given this I thought it was a worthwhile exercise to look at the complete declared picture to see exactly what happened in the sell down. On record are Blackrock's declared peak holdings on 14-01-2021 and their holdings on 20-04-2021 just after the sell down.

    No. Shares Held 20-04-2021 No. Shares Held 14-01-2021 Possible Shares Internally Redistributed
    Aperico Group LLC 177,851 (+100%) 0 177,851
    Blackrock Advisors (UK) Ltd. 7,373,646 (-82.6%) 42,277,344
    Blackrock Asset Management Canada Limited 260,683 (+24.7%) 209,194 51,489
    Blackrock Asset Management Deutscheland AG 5,904,181 (+57.0%) 3,761,194 2,142,987
    Blackrock Asset Management North Asia Limited 4,677 (+443%) 1,056 3,621
    Blackrock Financial Management Inc 109,585 (+261%) 41,985 67,600
    Blackrock Fund Advisors 15,979,436 (-67.1%) 48,497,377
    Blackrock Institutional Trust Co., National Association 5,029,558 (-6.09%) 5,355,835
    Blackrock Investment Management (Australia) Limited 6,116 (+0%) 6,116
    Blackrock Investment Management (UK) Limited 2,878,563 (+1.94%) 2,823,728 54,835
    Blackrock Investment Management LLC 9,634 (+427%) 2,255 7,739
    Blackrock Japan Co. Ltd. 30,101 (+0%) 30,101
    Blackrock Netherlands BV 0 (-100%) 97,535
    Total Percentage Holding 4.866% 14.349%
    Total Holding Possibly Redistributed Internally 2,506,122

    The above table does not take into account the number of shares subscribed to in the $400m cash issue. Such shares were issued on 16th February 2021. The $400m raised from institutional shareholders was from a total pool of $475m raised, with $400m representing proportionately the institutional shareholder base of Contact Energy. In the 16th April press release Contact said:

    "All existing eligible institutional shareholders who bid for their pro-rata allocation of the Placement were allocated at least that amount of new shares."

    Before the cash issue there were 718,565,905 shares on issue.

    The representative institutional shareholder component of that was:

    400/475 x 718,565,905 = 605,108,130

    The total number of new shares issued to institutions at the tender price of $1.70 was:

    $400m / $4.70 = 85.106m new shares

    This represented 85.106 / 605.109 = 14.06% of the pre-existing CEN shares in this owner group. So we can assume that any Blackrock group company that wanted to increase their holding of shares could have boosted their holding by this percentage, if they had wanted to do so.

    There is no evidence in the above table that any of the Blackrock companies took up their entitlement to the maximum. Indeed it would be kind of dumb to do so, knowing that other companies within the group were looking to sell down. So my guess is there was an internal redistribution, of up to 2,506,122 shares from Blackrock's ESG fund, into some of their other funds.

    I had assumed that the Blackrock ESG fund, which was doing the sell down, was purely US based (it looks like as 'Blackrock Fund Advisors'). However, the very large sell down by 'Blackrock Advisors UK Ltd.' would suggest that perhaps some of that fund was UK domiciled? In any event the number of shares sold by those two aforementioned funds totalled 67,421,639 shares. That is far more than I suggested may have been redistributed and reabsorbed by other arms of Blackrock.

    On 22nd April Milford Asset management issued a notice to say that they had bought 25,010,276 CEN shares 'on market'. The timing of this transaction would suggest that those shares were bought from Blackrock. There have been no other institutions declaring they have bought a significant stake since. So my guess is that the remaining 50m odd shares that Blackrock disposed of went to other institutions in such a way that no other institution broke the 5% share ownership threshold that required a declaration.

    SNOOPY
    Very informative thank you Snoopy.

    So all said and done do you think that Blackrocks internal redistribution will subsequently be slowly sold down over its subsidiaries in the coming months. Putting a continued downward pressure on the SP. This obviously would be a much smarter way of selling down CEN and MEL shares rather than trying to force sell such a large quantity on 16th April.

  17. #2157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxtrade View Post
    Very informative thank you Snoopy.

    So all said and done do you think that Blackrocks internal redistribution will subsequently be slowly sold down over its subsidiaries in the coming months. Putting a continued downward pressure on the SP. This obviously would be a much smarter way of selling down CEN and MEL shares rather than trying to force sell such a large quantity on 16th April.
    Firstly I need to point out that I don't know if the internal share redistribution within Blackrock took place or not. I am only saying it would have been logical to do it from an overall Blackrock perspective. The problem is that although we know the names of all of these Blackrock business units, we don't know how they operate or what their objectives are or how genuinely independent they are. The 'iShares' brand under which the aforementioned ESG fund held those 'Contact' and 'Meridian' shares does not appear on that shareholding naming list. 'iShares' is literally a 'consumer brand' for Blackrock it would seem. The only thing that gives us a clue as to where those 'IShares' holdings were registered is the large drop in certain Blackrock entities' holdings on or about the date we knew those sell downs occurred.

    I would assume that some of those other Blackrock companies are part of market determined index funds. Any CEN shares held within those are clearly not overhangs waiting to be sold. If the internal share transfers did occur as I suggested, then the remaining overhang is likely not more than 2.5m shares. It is not unusual for CEN to trade more than 1m shares in a day. So I am fairly sure Blackrock could feed the market any remainder into the market without severely knocking the CEN share price about.

    You say that forcing a large sell down on a certain date was a poor way to dispose of a large holding and I would agree - if that is what happened. However, the fact that the share price did not collapse would suggest to me that there was a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering lining up buyers before the actual sell down registration date.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  18. #2158
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...815/345560.pdf

    Looks to me that the April Operating Report shows a significant increase in netback and possible future operating profit and indicates this will continue(page 2-overview looks promising ) .
    Would be interested to hear more expert views on this
    Last edited by fish; 07-05-2021 at 11:48 AM.

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